TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13074446
Played Sep 4Finished
Michal Wolny
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
10121194111111214
Jakub Skorupa
Away
1.87
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:48 and never touched — 58.3% is still 58.3%
Graded at full timeMichal Wolny to win
58.3%
58.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
95 points played in total.
Set by set
10121194111111214
H2H Michal Wolny 6–2 Jakub Skorupa Jakub Skorupa has won 2 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:48What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (51%)
Wolny
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-2 in 8
Wolny
Wrong
gap of 4 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Wolny 1403 vs Skorupa 1328
Wolny
Wrong
both rated, 76 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Wolny 40% vs Skorupa 60%
Skorupa
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Wolny 60% vs Skorupa 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Wolny +1 · Skorupa +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Wolny) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Wolny form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWolny 1.83 / Skorupa 1.87
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Wolny)+3.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13074446
Wolny1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite68% won 61 of 90
Up 2–0, closes it97% 32 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it86% 50 of 58
Skorupa1.87
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog33% won 93 of 281
Down 0–1, comes back15% 23 of 154
Down 0–2, comes back9% 8 of 92
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeWolny6wins
AwaySkorupa2wins
2 of 8 to a deciderWolny leads 6–2, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWolny75%3 of 4
AwaySkorupa25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Wolny4Skorupa4n = 8split evenly
S2Wolny3Skorupa5n = 8Skorupa took 5 of 8
S3Wolny7Skorupa1n = 8Wolny took 7 of 8
S4Wolny6Skorupa2n = 8Wolny took 6 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home563%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricWolnySkorupaW − SBasisWins62+4in 8 meetingsFirst set440of 8Avg pointsper match42.436.4+6.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWolnySkorupaBasisWin rate · lifetime272 / 566 vs 291 / 60048.1%48.5%272 / 566 vs 291 / 600Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.537.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WolnyWolny 1.83/Skorupa 1.87
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Wolny · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Skorupa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WSep 3 · 17:30M. Wolny—11711113J. Skorupa—311991
LAug 24 · 06:00M. Wolny—11711882J. Skorupa—411611113
WAug 3 · 06:00M. Wolny—11611133J. Skorupa—5115111
WApr 3 · 02:45M. Wolny—91111113J. Skorupa—116471
WApr 2 · 23:05M. Wolny—911611113J. Skorupa—11811572
WDec 6 · 02:10M. Wolny—11411113J. Skorupa—911921
LNov 29 · 03:45M. Wolny—9519111J. Skorupa—111117133
WNov 28 · 19:25M. Wolny—91111113J. Skorupa—118661
M. Wolny10
LSep 7 · 08:45A. Zmijewski1.451111113M. Wolny2.508480WSep 7 · 07:35M. Wolny1.3381111113A. Barton3.10119861LSep 7 · 06:25M. Machelski2.05712711113M. Wolny1.68111011952LSep 7 · 05:10W. Stechly5.20117119113M. Wolny1.1281151172WSep 7 · 03:35J. Slawomir1.85111011862M. Wolny1.85512711113LSep 4 · 04:20J. Zelezik1.58911126113M. Wolny2.25116101192WSep 4 · 03:30A. Barton4.258170M. Wolny1.191111113WSep 4 · 02:45M. Wolny1.64711117113A. Staniczek2.1411381112LSep 4 · 24:20Z. Nocun1.50111011123M. Wolny2.355125101WSep 3 · 23:05M. Wolny1.5281111113A. Staniczek2.30114041
J. Skorupa10
LSep 7 · 02:35J. Zelezik1.7311117133J. Skorupa2.009911111LSep 7 · 01:25J. Skorupa1.91115121382G. Mucha1.803111015113LSep 7 · 24:10M. Guzik1.2011511113J. Skorupa4.33911681WSep 6 · 22:55Z. Nocun1.67514651J. Skorupa2.10111211113WSep 6 · 21:20M. Lewczuk1.57114141222J. Skorupa2.255111214113LSep 6 · 20:30M. Guzik1.201081111113J. Skorupa4.3312116762WSep 6 · 19:20J. Skorupa1.8351111113G. Mucha1.83116791LSep 6 · 18:10J. Zelezik1.67461111113J. Skorupa2.1011116442LSep 6 · 16:55Z. Nocun1.5711118113J. Skorupa2.25531171LSep 6 · 15:25M. Lewczuk1.731111113J. Skorupa2.005860
Upcoming Matches
M. Wolny
Nothing scheduled
J. Skorupa4 of 10 neutral
Sep 7 · 15:00J. Skorupa2.10A. Kubiak1.66—Sep 7 · 16:35J. Skorupa—J. Zelezik——Sep 7 · 17:20J. Skorupa—M. Lewczuk——Sep 7 · 19:20J. Skorupa—H. Tkaczyk——Sep 7 · 20:05J. Skorupa—M. Krutak——Sep 7 · 21:00J. Skorupa—J. Zelezik——Sep 7 · 22:30J. Skorupa2.10A. Kubiak1.66—Sep 7 · 23:10J. Skorupa—M. Lewczuk——Sep 8 · 24:50J. Skorupa—H. Tkaczyk——Sep 8 · 01:30J. Skorupa—M. Krutak——
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