TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13088262
Played Sep 8Finished
Michal Krutak
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 8Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 8
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611811511––––
Jakub Skorupa
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:33 and never touched — 71.2% is still 71.2%
Graded at full timeJakub Skorupa to win
71.2%
71.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Krutak above · Jakub Skorupa below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 52 set 3, 5-11 — our read held Jakub Skorupa at 71.2%
52 points played in total.
H2H Michal Krutak 3–4 Jakub Skorupa Michal Krutak has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Krutak beat Skorupa 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:33What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Skorupa
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-4 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krutak 1533 vs Skorupa 1332
Krutak
Wrong
both rated, 202 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krutak 100% vs Skorupa 20%
Krutak
Wrong
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krutak 80% vs Skorupa 20%
Krutak
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Krutak +5 · Skorupa -2
Krutak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Krutak) · live re-read · sealed at 29% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skorupa form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrutak 1.83 / Skorupa 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Krutak)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13088262
Krutak1.83
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 8
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Skorupa1.83
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeKrutak3wins
AwaySkorupa4wins
2 of 7 to a deciderSkorupa leads 4–3, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrutak75%3 of 4
AwaySkorupa100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krutak4Skorupa3n = 7Krutak took 4 of 7
S2Krutak2Skorupa5n = 7Skorupa took 5 of 7
S3Krutak6Skorupa1n = 7Krutak took 6 of 7
S4Krutak3Skorupa3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home229%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away229%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricKrutakSkorupaK − SBasisWins34−1in 7 meetingsFirst set43+1of 7Avg pointsper match37.138.0−0.9per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrutakSkorupaBasisWin rate · lifetime202 / 337 vs 299 / 62359.9%48%202 / 337 vs 299 / 623Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.837.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrutakKrutak 1.83/Skorupa 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Krutak · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Skorupa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WSep 7 · 20:05M. Krutak—11811113J. Skorupa—511381
LMay 24 · 24:00M. Krutak—821341J. Skorupa—111111113
LMay 23 · 16:00M. Krutak—11611662J. Skorupa—711911113
LMar 21 · 03:45M. Krutak—751161J. Skorupa—11119113
WMar 20 · 19:25M. Krutak—1211113J. Skorupa—10970
WFeb 20 · 02:55M. Krutak—11914113J. Skorupa—2111271
LFeb 19 · 20:55M. Krutak—61171192J. Skorupa—118115113
M. Krutak10
WSep 8 · 24:10M. Lewczuk2.0091080M. Krutak1.731112113WSep 7 · 23:30J. Zelezik1.838760M. Krutak1.831111113WSep 7 · 22:50M. Krutak2.501111113H. Tkaczyk1.504580WSep 7 · 21:45M. Krutak1.7311179113A. Kubiak2.009151151WSep 7 · 20:05M. Krutak1.8311811113J. Skorupa1.83511381WSep 7 · 18:30M. Lewczuk2.2091111932M. Krutak1.61117811113WSep 7 · 17:45A. Kubiak2.101091161M. Krutak1.6712118113WSep 7 · 16:55M. Krutak2.631411116113H. Tkaczyk1.44127131192LSep 7 · 15:50M. Krutak1.8381110101J. Zelezik1.8311812123LSep 5 · 02:00M. Krutak2.702880C. Pawlik1.421111113
J. Skorupa10
LSep 8 · 24:50H. Tkaczyk1.44139118143J. Skorupa2.631111811122LSep 7 · 23:10M. Lewczuk1.534101411113J. Skorupa2.38111212772WSep 7 · 22:30A. Kubiak1.73101250J. Skorupa2.001214113LSep 7 · 21:00J. Zelezik1.61711811113J. Skorupa2.2011711952LSep 7 · 20:05M. Krutak1.8311811113J. Skorupa1.83511381LSep 7 · 19:20H. Tkaczyk1.441111143J. Skorupa2.6396120LSep 7 · 17:20M. Lewczuk1.57101111113J. Skorupa2.25128591WSep 7 · 16:35J. Zelezik1.7391011101J. Skorupa2.0011129123LSep 7 · 15:00A. Kubiak1.6711116113J. Skorupa2.10691181LSep 7 · 02:35J. Zelezik1.7311117133J. Skorupa2.009911111
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