TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13093560
Played Sep 8Finished
Marian Brunner
Home
3.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
7111167111618––
Henryk Tkaczyk
Away
1.30
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:33 and never touched — 65.1% is still 65.1%
Graded at full timeHenryk Tkaczyk to win
65.1%
65.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
87 points played in total.
Set by set
7111167111618––
H2H Marian Brunner 16–43 Henryk Tkaczyk Marian Brunner has won 16 of their 59 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:33What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (71%)
Tkaczyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-43 in 59
Tkaczyk
Correct
gap of 27 in 59, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Brunner 1276 vs Tkaczyk 1617
Tkaczyk
Correct
both rated, 341 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Brunner 80% vs Tkaczyk 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Brunner 60% vs Tkaczyk 80%
Tkaczyk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Brunner +1 · Tkaczyk +3
Tkaczyk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 76% — Strong (leans Tkaczyk) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Brunner form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (31%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBrunner 3.25 / Tkaczyk 1.30
Signal prob.24% / 76%
Edge (Tkaczyk)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13093560
Brunner3.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog33% won 48 of 145
Down 0–1, comes back18% 16 of 88
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 50
Tkaczyk1.30
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite69% won 392 of 567
Up 2–0, closes it94% 221 of 235
Up 1–0, closes it85% 304 of 357
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBrunner1wins
AwayTkaczyk9wins
3 of 10 to a deciderTkaczyk leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBrunner33.3%1 of 3
AwayTkaczyk100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Brunner3Tkaczyk7n = 10Tkaczyk took 7 of 10
S2Brunner5Tkaczyk5n = 10split evenly
S3Brunner2Tkaczyk8n = 10Tkaczyk took 8 of 10
S4Brunner2Tkaczyk5n = 7Tkaczyk took 5 of 7
S5Brunner0Tkaczyk3n = 3Tkaczyk took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricBrunnerTkaczykB − TBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match33.540.0−6.5per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBrunnerTkaczykBasisWin rate · lifetime282 / 564 vs 999 / 149850%66.7%282 / 564 vs 999 / 1498Avg sets wonper match2.02.4per matchAvg pointsper match36.638.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkaczykBrunner 3.25/Tkaczyk 1.30
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
75.8%
Tkaczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Tkaczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 2 · 02:45M. Brunner—41190H. Tkaczyk—1113113
LSep 1 · 18:45M. Brunner—11981272H. Tkaczyk—5111110113
LAug 12 · 04:20M. Brunner—11116822H. Tkaczyk—641111113
LAug 11 · 18:45M. Brunner—811178102H. Tkaczyk—1141511123
WAug 5 · 02:45M. Brunner—11114123H. Tkaczyk—7211101
LAug 4 · 23:05M. Brunner—8117101H. Tkaczyk—11811123
LJul 29 · 01:55M. Brunner—611811H. Tkaczyk—11911113
LJul 28 · 19:55M. Brunner—5940H. Tkaczyk—1111113
LJun 26 · 02:45M. Brunner—3101191H. Tkaczyk—11126113
LJun 25 · 23:05M. Brunner—51060H. Tkaczyk—1112113
M. Brunner10
WSep 8 · 20:20M. Brunner1.901211113K. Delikatny1.8010460LSep 8 · 18:45M. Brunner2.008790J. Michalik1.671111113WSep 8 · 17:30M. Brunner1.3011311113A. Barton3.40411461WSep 2 · 04:20K. Gudzik1.7275111132M. Brunner1.96111175113WSep 2 · 03:30T. Kordaszewski2.9581090M. Brunner1.321112113LSep 2 · 02:45M. Brunner3.8541190H. Tkaczyk1.211113113WSep 2 · 01:10M. Brunner1.6011118113A. Barton2.15671191LSep 2 · 24:20A. Fomin1.6871111113M. Brunner2.07117621WSep 1 · 23:05M. Brunner2.201411113K. Gudzik1.5712740LSep 1 · 21:30M. Brunner6.259550D. Molenda1.081111113
H. Tkaczyk10
WSep 8 · 22:20J. Michalik2.857650H. Tkaczyk1.331111113WSep 8 · 20:45H. Tkaczyk1.3611118113A. Krezel2.95441181WSep 8 · 19:10H. Tkaczyk1.0611811113A. Barton6.50711641WSep 8 · 18:20K. Delikatny3.0010650H. Tkaczyk1.331211113LSep 8 · 01:50J. Zelezik2.5051111113H. Tkaczyk1.50117771WSep 8 · 24:50H. Tkaczyk1.44139118143J. Skorupa2.631111811122WSep 7 · 23:50A. Kubiak2.63611581H. Tkaczyk1.4411211113LSep 7 · 22:50M. Krutak2.501111113H. Tkaczyk1.504580WSep 7 · 21:20M. Lewczuk3.006101181H. Tkaczyk1.3611124113WSep 2 · 02:45M. Brunner3.8541190H. Tkaczyk1.211113113
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