TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13093557
Played Sep 9Finished
Henryk Tkaczyk
Home
1.22
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 6
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118116114––––
Michal Machelski
Away
3.55
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:32 and never touched — 66.6% is still 66.6%
Graded at full timeHenryk Tkaczyk to win
66.6%
66.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
51 points played in total.
Set by set
118116114––––
H2H Henryk Tkaczyk 65–20 Michal Machelski Michal Machelski has won 20 of their 85 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:32What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.22 (74%)
Tkaczyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
65-20 in 85
Tkaczyk
Correct
gap of 45 in 85, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tkaczyk 1631 vs Machelski 1287
Tkaczyk
Correct
both rated, 344 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tkaczyk 100% vs Machelski 20%
Tkaczyk
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tkaczyk 80% vs Machelski 30%
Tkaczyk
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tkaczyk +5 · Machelski -2
Tkaczyk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% — Strong (leans Tkaczyk) · live re-read · sealed at 67% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tkaczyk form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (82%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTkaczyk 1.22 / Machelski 3.55
Signal prob.79% / 21%
Edge (Tkaczyk)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13093557
Tkaczyk1.22
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite69% won 392 of 567
Up 2–0, closes it94% 221 of 235
Up 1–0, closes it85% 304 of 357
Machelski3.55
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog33% won 118 of 358
Down 0–1, comes back17% 36 of 207
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 124
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTkaczyk7wins
AwayMachelski3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderTkaczyk leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTkaczyk85.7%6 of 7
AwayMachelski66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tkaczyk7Machelski3n = 10Tkaczyk took 7 of 10
S2Tkaczyk8Machelski2n = 10Tkaczyk took 8 of 10
S3Tkaczyk7Machelski3n = 10Tkaczyk took 7 of 10
S4Tkaczyk4Machelski3n = 7Tkaczyk took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricTkaczykMachelskiT − MBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.034.7+5.3per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTkaczykMachelskiBasisWin rate · lifetime1002 / 1501 vs 421 / 114266.8%36.9%1002 / 1501 vs 421 / 1142Avg sets wonper match2.41.7per matchAvg pointsper match38.635.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkaczykTkaczyk 1.22/Machelski 3.55
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
78.8%
Tkaczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Tkaczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 3 · 16:55H. Tkaczyk—1112123M. Machelski—610100
WAug 23 · 22:55H. Tkaczyk—11128113M. Machelski—4101171
WAug 23 · 16:55H. Tkaczyk—11811143M. Machelski—9115121
WJul 24 · 04:20H. Tkaczyk—11118113M. Machelski—171161
WJul 23 · 18:45H. Tkaczyk—1111113M. Machelski—8980
WJul 15 · 23:30H. Tkaczyk—41111113M. Machelski—118791
LJul 15 · 19:10H. Tkaczyk—119116102M. Machelski—311811123
LJul 10 · 04:40H. Tkaczyk—611851M. Machelski—11811113
WJul 9 · 22:40H. Tkaczyk—2011113M. Machelski—18580
LJul 6 · 08:45H. Tkaczyk—5121111102M. Machelski—1110413123
H. Tkaczyk10
WSep 8 · 23:30H. Tkaczyk1.08111110113A. Barton6.43971281WSep 8 · 22:20J. Michalik2.857650H. Tkaczyk1.331111113WSep 8 · 21:30M. Brunner3.257117161H. Tkaczyk1.3011611183WSep 8 · 20:45H. Tkaczyk1.3611118113A. Krezel2.95441181WSep 8 · 19:10H. Tkaczyk1.0611811113A. Barton6.50711641WSep 8 · 18:20K. Delikatny3.0010650H. Tkaczyk1.331211113LSep 8 · 01:50J. Zelezik2.5051111113H. Tkaczyk1.50117771WSep 8 · 24:50H. Tkaczyk1.44139118143J. Skorupa2.631111811122WSep 7 · 23:50A. Kubiak2.63611581H. Tkaczyk1.4411211113LSep 7 · 22:50M. Krutak2.501111113H. Tkaczyk1.504580
M. Machelski10
LSep 8 · 23:55M. Machelski1.96115118122A. Krezel1.69211711143LSep 8 · 02:20M. Machelski1.868860A. Krezel1.801111113WSep 8 · 24:45M. Karpiuk1.80146118112M. Machelski1.911211711133LSep 8 · 24:00J. Michalik1.601111113M. Machelski2.107750LSep 7 · 23:10M. Machelski1.9516150A. Staniczek1.751811113LSep 7 · 22:00M. Machelski3.656670M. Warzecha1.211111113LSep 7 · 08:00J. Slawomir1.6511711113M. Machelski2.10811591LSep 7 · 07:10A. Zmijewski1.4541111113M. Machelski2.50113841WSep 7 · 06:25M. Machelski2.05712711113M. Wolny1.68111011952WSep 7 · 04:50M. Machelski1.191191011113A. Barton4.0081112792
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