TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13108306
Played Sep 10Finished
Jerzy Michalik
Home
2.60
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
811118118511811
Henryk Tkaczyk
Away
1.41
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:03 and never touched — 55.2% is still 55.2%
Graded at full timeHenryk Tkaczyk to win
55.2%
55.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
92 points played in total.
Set by set
811118118511811
H2H Jerzy Michalik 28–61 Henryk Tkaczyk Jerzy Michalik has won 28 of their 89 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:03What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.41 (65%)
Tkaczyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
28-61 in 89
Tkaczyk
Correct
gap of 33 in 89, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Michalik 1434 vs Tkaczyk 1540
Tkaczyk
Correct
both rated, 106 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Michalik 40% vs Tkaczyk 20%
Michalik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Michalik 60% vs Tkaczyk 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Michalik -3 · Tkaczyk -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Tkaczyk) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tkaczyk form (20%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMichalik 2.60 / Tkaczyk 1.41
Signal prob.31% / 69%
Edge (Tkaczyk)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13108306
Michalik2.60
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog36% won 117 of 330
Down 0–1, comes back19% 35 of 187
Down 0–2, comes back4% 4 of 108
Tkaczyk1.41
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite69% won 399 of 577
Up 2–0, closes it94% 226 of 241
Up 1–0, closes it85% 311 of 365
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMichalik2wins
AwayTkaczyk8wins
5 of 10 to a deciderTkaczyk leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMichalikn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayTkaczyk75%6 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Michalik2Tkaczyk8n = 10Tkaczyk took 8 of 10
S2Michalik3Tkaczyk7n = 10Tkaczyk took 7 of 10
S3Michalik4Tkaczyk6n = 10Tkaczyk took 6 of 10
S4Michalik4Tkaczyk4n = 8split evenly
S5Michalik2Tkaczyk3n = 5Tkaczyk took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMichalikTkaczykM − TBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match38.044.8−6.8per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMichalikTkaczykBasisWin rate · lifetime539 / 1143 vs 1003 / 150647.2%66.6%539 / 1143 vs 1003 / 1506Avg sets wonper match1.92.4per matchAvg pointsper match37.438.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkaczykMichalik 2.60/Tkaczyk 1.41
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.2%
Tkaczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Tkaczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 8 · 22:20J. Michalik—7650H. Tkaczyk—1111113
LSep 4 · 02:35J. Michalik—8360H. Tkaczyk—1111113
WSep 3 · 18:10J. Michalik—811613113H. Tkaczyk—118111192
LSep 1 · 24:10J. Michalik—81461562H. Tkaczyk—11121113113
LAug 12 · 24:45J. Michalik—981111102H. Tkaczyk—111198123
LAug 7 · 01:30J. Michalik—1113111062H. Tkaczyk—715812113
LAug 6 · 19:55J. Michalik—1198101H. Tkaczyk—61111123
LAug 5 · 05:05J. Michalik—9101191H. Tkaczyk—11126113
WAug 3 · 23:35J. Michalik—371211113H. Tkaczyk—111110882
LJul 29 · 23:30J. Michalik—511641H. Tkaczyk—11911113
J. Michalik10
LSep 10 · 17:30J. Michalik2.101778121J. Zelezik1.60151111143LSep 8 · 22:20J. Michalik2.857650H. Tkaczyk1.331111113LSep 8 · 21:05J. Michalik1.851012731K. Delikatny1.85121011113WSep 8 · 19:55J. Michalik1.17713711113A. Barton4.05111111882WSep 8 · 18:45M. Brunner2.008790J. Michalik1.671111113WSep 8 · 17:55J. Michalik1.833111011113A. Krezel1.8711412962WSep 8 · 02:45J. Michalik1.501111113A. Staniczek2.302670LSep 8 · 01:10J. Michalik3.0058111372M. Warzecha1.311111711113WSep 8 · 24:00J. Michalik1.601111113M. Machelski2.107750WSep 7 · 22:25J. Michalik1.7311138113M. Karpiuk1.929111181
H. Tkaczyk10
LSep 10 · 17:55H. Tkaczyk1.2311118962M. Machelski3.50671111113LSep 9 · 05:05H. Tkaczyk1.36111171082A. Krezel3.00961112113LSep 9 · 03:30H. Tkaczyk1.29461131M. Brunner3.1011118113LSep 9 · 02:20H. Tkaczyk1.328670K. Delikatny2.901111113WSep 9 · 24:45H. Tkaczyk1.221111113M. Machelski3.558640WSep 8 · 23:30H. Tkaczyk1.08111110113A. Barton6.43971281WSep 8 · 22:20J. Michalik2.857650H. Tkaczyk1.331111113WSep 8 · 21:30M. Brunner3.257117161H. Tkaczyk1.3011611183WSep 8 · 20:45H. Tkaczyk1.3611118113A. Krezel2.95441181WSep 8 · 19:10H. Tkaczyk1.0611811113A. Barton6.50711641
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