TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13093554
Played Sep 9Finished
Henryk Tkaczyk
Home
1.36
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1191167111012811
Andrzej Krezel
Away
3.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:32 and never touched — 62.3% is still 62.3%
Graded at full timeHenryk Tkaczyk to win
62.3%
62.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
96 points played in total.
Set by set
1191167111012811
H2H Henryk Tkaczyk 8–6 Andrzej Krezel Andrzej Krezel has won 6 of their 14 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 8h before this match
Tkaczyk beat Krezel 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:32What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Tkaczyk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-6 in 14
Tkaczyk
Wrong
gap of 2 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tkaczyk 1562 vs Krezel 1456
Tkaczyk
Wrong
both rated, 106 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tkaczyk 60% vs Krezel 80%
Krezel
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tkaczyk 70% vs Krezel 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Tkaczyk -2 · Krezel +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Tkaczyk) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krezel form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTkaczyk 1.36 / Krezel 3.00
Signal prob.72% / 28%
Edge (Tkaczyk)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13093554
Tkaczyk1.36
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite69% won 399 of 576
Up 2–0, closes it94% 226 of 240
Up 1–0, closes it85% 311 of 364
Krezel3.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog30% won 52 of 176
Down 0–1, comes back10% 10 of 105
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 67
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTkaczyk6wins
AwayKrezel4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderTkaczyk leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTkaczyk85.7%6 of 7
AwayKrezel100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tkaczyk7Krezel3n = 10Tkaczyk took 7 of 10
S2Tkaczyk6Krezel4n = 10Tkaczyk took 6 of 10
S3Tkaczyk6Krezel4n = 10Tkaczyk took 6 of 10
S4Tkaczyk5Krezel3n = 8Tkaczyk took 5 of 8
S5Tkaczyk1Krezel3n = 4Krezel took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricTkaczykKrezelT − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.237.0+3.2per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTkaczykKrezelBasisWin rate · lifetime1003 / 1505 vs 77 / 23166.6%33.3%1003 / 1505 vs 77 / 231Avg sets wonper match2.41.6per matchAvg pointsper match38.635.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkaczykTkaczyk 1.36/Krezel 3.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
72%
Tkaczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Krezel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 9 · 05:05H. Tkaczyk—111171082A. Krezel—961112113
WSep 8 · 20:45H. Tkaczyk—11118113A. Krezel—441181
WSep 5 · 21:35H. Tkaczyk—111111123A. Krezel—5138101
WSep 5 · 15:35H. Tkaczyk—1131111113A. Krezel—41113962
WSep 4 · 01:25H. Tkaczyk—11126113A. Krezel—9101141
WSep 3 · 19:20H. Tkaczyk—1111113A. Krezel—5750
WAug 27 · 01:25H. Tkaczyk—1314123A. Krezel—1112100
LAug 26 · 19:20H. Tkaczyk—85111162A. Krezel—111186113
LAug 21 · 01:00H. Tkaczyk—361151A. Krezel—11114113
LAug 20 · 18:55H. Tkaczyk—81111592A. Krezel—116811113
H. Tkaczyk10
LSep 9 · 03:30H. Tkaczyk1.29461131M. Brunner3.1011118113LSep 9 · 02:20H. Tkaczyk1.328670K. Delikatny2.901111113WSep 9 · 24:45H. Tkaczyk1.221111113M. Machelski3.558640WSep 8 · 23:30H. Tkaczyk1.08111110113A. Barton6.43971281WSep 8 · 22:20J. Michalik2.857650H. Tkaczyk1.331111113WSep 8 · 21:30M. Brunner3.257117161H. Tkaczyk1.3011611183WSep 8 · 20:45H. Tkaczyk1.3611118113A. Krezel2.95441181WSep 8 · 19:10H. Tkaczyk1.0611811113A. Barton6.50711641WSep 8 · 18:20K. Delikatny3.0010650H. Tkaczyk1.331211113LSep 8 · 01:50J. Zelezik2.5051111113H. Tkaczyk1.50117771
A. Krezel10
WSep 9 · 03:55A. Krezel1.241111123A. Barton3.4044100LSep 9 · 02:45M. Brunner1.7771111113A. Krezel1.87118891WSep 9 · 01:30K. Delikatny1.698570A. Krezel1.961111113WSep 8 · 23:55M. Machelski1.96115118122A. Krezel1.69211711143WSep 8 · 23:05M. Brunner1.801111921A. Krezel1.9071311113WSep 8 · 21:55A. Krezel1.2411911113A. Barton3.40411581LSep 8 · 20:45H. Tkaczyk1.3611118113A. Krezel2.95441181WSep 8 · 19:30K. Delikatny1.80133381A. Krezel1.85111111113LSep 8 · 17:55J. Michalik1.833111011113A. Krezel1.8711412962WSep 8 · 02:20M. Machelski1.868860A. Krezel1.801111113
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