TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13102568
Played Sep 10Finished
Henryk Tkaczyk
Home
1.23
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
116117811911611
Michal Machelski
Away
3.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:16 and never touched — 63.8% is still 63.8%
Graded at full timeHenryk Tkaczyk to win
63.8%
63.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
91 points played in total.
Set by set
116117811911611
H2H Henryk Tkaczyk 67–20 Michal Machelski Michal Machelski has won 20 of their 87 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:16What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.23 (74%)
Tkaczyk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
67-20 in 87
Tkaczyk
Wrong
gap of 47 in 87, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tkaczyk 1562 vs Machelski 1291
Tkaczyk
Wrong
both rated, 271 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tkaczyk 40% vs Machelski 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tkaczyk 70% vs Machelski 30%
Tkaczyk
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tkaczyk -3 · Machelski -1
Tkaczyk
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 78% — Strong (leans Tkaczyk) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Machelski form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTkaczyk 1.23 / Machelski 3.50
Signal prob.78% / 22%
Edge (Tkaczyk)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13102568
Tkaczyk1.23
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite69% won 399 of 577
Up 2–0, closes it94% 226 of 241
Up 1–0, closes it85% 311 of 365
Machelski3.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog33% won 117 of 358
Down 0–1, comes back17% 35 of 205
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 123
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTkaczyk8wins
AwayMachelski2wins
1 of 10 to a deciderTkaczyk leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTkaczyk85.7%6 of 7
AwayMachelski33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tkaczyk7Machelski3n = 10Tkaczyk took 7 of 10
S2Tkaczyk8Machelski2n = 10Tkaczyk took 8 of 10
S3Tkaczyk7Machelski3n = 10Tkaczyk took 7 of 10
S4Tkaczyk5Machelski2n = 7Tkaczyk took 5 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricTkaczykMachelskiT − MBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.430.6+7.8per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTkaczykMachelskiBasisWin rate · lifetime1003 / 1505 vs 423 / 114666.6%36.9%1003 / 1505 vs 423 / 1146Avg sets wonper match2.41.7per matchAvg pointsper match38.635.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkaczykTkaczyk 1.23/Machelski 3.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
78.4%
Tkaczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Machelski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 9 · 24:45H. Tkaczyk—1111113M. Machelski—8640
WSep 3 · 22:55H. Tkaczyk—91111113M. Machelski—115331
WSep 3 · 16:55H. Tkaczyk—1112123M. Machelski—610100
WAug 23 · 22:55H. Tkaczyk—11128113M. Machelski—4101171
WAug 23 · 16:55H. Tkaczyk—11811143M. Machelski—9115121
WJul 24 · 04:20H. Tkaczyk—11118113M. Machelski—171161
WJul 23 · 18:45H. Tkaczyk—1111113M. Machelski—8980
WJul 15 · 23:30H. Tkaczyk—41111113M. Machelski—118791
LJul 15 · 19:10H. Tkaczyk—119116102M. Machelski—311811123
LJul 10 · 04:40H. Tkaczyk—611851M. Machelski—11811113
H. Tkaczyk10
LSep 9 · 05:05H. Tkaczyk1.36111171082A. Krezel3.00961112113LSep 9 · 03:30H. Tkaczyk1.29461131M. Brunner3.1011118113LSep 9 · 02:20H. Tkaczyk1.328670K. Delikatny2.901111113WSep 9 · 24:45H. Tkaczyk1.221111113M. Machelski3.558640WSep 8 · 23:30H. Tkaczyk1.08111110113A. Barton6.43971281WSep 8 · 22:20J. Michalik2.857650H. Tkaczyk1.331111113WSep 8 · 21:30M. Brunner3.257117161H. Tkaczyk1.3011611183WSep 8 · 20:45H. Tkaczyk1.3611118113A. Krezel2.95441181WSep 8 · 19:10H. Tkaczyk1.0611811113A. Barton6.50711641WSep 8 · 18:20K. Delikatny3.0010650H. Tkaczyk1.331211113
M. Machelski10
LSep 9 · 04:20M. Machelski2.0911811332M. Brunner1.68611311113WSep 9 · 03:05M. Machelski2.11117127113K. Delikatny1.66911101152WSep 9 · 01:55M. Machelski1.281311113A. Barton3.1511690LSep 9 · 24:45H. Tkaczyk1.221111113M. Machelski3.558640LSep 8 · 23:55M. Machelski1.96115118122A. Krezel1.69211711143LSep 8 · 02:20M. Machelski1.868860A. Krezel1.801111113WSep 8 · 24:45M. Karpiuk1.80146118112M. Machelski1.911211711133LSep 8 · 24:00J. Michalik1.601111113M. Machelski2.107750LSep 7 · 23:10M. Machelski1.9516150A. Staniczek1.751811113LSep 7 · 22:00M. Machelski3.656670M. Warzecha1.211111113
Upcoming Matches
H. Tkaczyk
Sep 10 · 18:45H. Tkaczyk1.41J. Michalik2.60—Sep 10 · 19:55H. Tkaczyk1.55J. Zelezik2.19—Sep 10 · 21:05H. Tkaczyk2.20M. Guzik1.55—Sep 10 · 22:20H. Tkaczyk2.55D. Molenda1.41—Sep 10 · 23:55H. Tkaczyk1.23M. Machelski3.50—Sep 11 · 24:45H. Tkaczyk1.07W. Stechly6.00—Sep 11 · 01:55H. Tkaczyk1.56J. Zelezik2.19—Sep 11 · 03:05H. Tkaczyk2.20M. Guzik1.55—Sep 11 · 04:20H. Tkaczyk—J. Michalik——
M. Machelski1 of 9 neutral
Sep 10 · 19:30M. Machelski4.35M. Guzik1.15—Sep 10 · 20:45M. Machelski5.20D. Molenda1.10—Sep 10 · 21:55M. Machelski2.85J. Zelezik1.33—Sep 10 · 23:05M. Machelski2.40J. Michalik1.50—Sep 10 · 23:55M. Machelski3.50H. Tkaczyk1.23—Sep 11 · 01:30M. Machelski4.35M. Guzik1.15—Sep 11 · 02:45M. Machelski2.39J. Michalik1.47—Sep 11 · 03:55M. Machelski—J. Zelezik——Sep 11 · 05:05M. Machelski—W. Stechly——
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.