TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13099709
Played Sep 9Finished
Michal Machelski
Home
2.09
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
116811113311311
Marian Brunner
Away
1.68
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:49 and never touched — 66.2% is still 66.2%
Graded at full timeMarian Brunner to win
66.2%
66.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
78 points played in total.
Set by set
116811113311311
H2H Michal Machelski 11–31 Marian Brunner Michal Machelski has won 11 of their 42 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:49What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.68 (55%)
Brunner
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-31 in 42
Brunner
Correct
gap of 20 in 42, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Machelski 1302 vs Brunner 1303
Brunner
Correct
both rated, 1 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Machelski 40% vs Brunner 60%
Brunner
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Machelski 30% vs Brunner 60%
Brunner
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Machelski +2 · Brunner +3
Brunner
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Brunner) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMachelski 2.09 / Brunner 1.68
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Brunner)+1.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13099709
Machelski2.09
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog33% won 118 of 358
Down 0–1, comes back18% 36 of 206
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 123
Brunner1.68
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite62% won 72 of 116
Up 2–0, closes it89% 40 of 45
Up 1–0, closes it81% 59 of 73
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMachelski2wins
AwayBrunner8wins
5 of 10 to a deciderBrunner leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMachelski33.3%2 of 6
AwayBrunner100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Machelski6Brunner4n = 10Machelski took 6 of 10
S2Machelski3Brunner7n = 10Brunner took 7 of 10
S3Machelski2Brunner8n = 10Brunner took 8 of 10
S4Machelski4Brunner4n = 8split evenly
S5Machelski1Brunner4n = 5Brunner took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMachelskiBrunnerM − BBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.443.2−5.8per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMachelskiBrunnerBasisWin rate · lifetime423 / 1145 vs 285 / 57036.9%50%423 / 1145 vs 285 / 570Avg sets wonper match1.72.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.236.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BrunnerMachelski 2.09/Brunner 1.68
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57%
Brunner · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Brunner won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 22 · 24:20M. Machelski—111174113M. Brunner—86111142
WJul 21 · 20:20M. Machelski—11613113M. Brunner—7111181
LMay 27 · 03:05M. Machelski—11118832M. Brunner—941111113
LMay 26 · 21:05M. Machelski—115311132M. Brunner—911116153
LMay 20 · 03:30M. Machelski—9690M. Brunner—1111113
LMay 19 · 21:30M. Machelski—81180M. Brunner—1113113
LApr 1 · 24:45M. Machelski—119531M. Brunner—71111113
LMar 25 · 01:45M. Machelski—581112102M. Brunner—1111710123
LMar 18 · 01:45M. Machelski—113861M. Brunner—81111113
LMar 11 · 03:20M. Machelski—716111172M. Brunner—1114138113
M. Machelski10
WSep 9 · 03:05M. Machelski2.11117127113K. Delikatny1.66911101152WSep 9 · 01:55M. Machelski1.281311113A. Barton3.1511690LSep 9 · 24:45H. Tkaczyk1.221111113M. Machelski3.558640LSep 8 · 23:55M. Machelski1.96115118122A. Krezel1.69211711143LSep 8 · 02:20M. Machelski1.868860A. Krezel1.801111113WSep 8 · 24:45M. Karpiuk1.80146118112M. Machelski1.911211711133LSep 8 · 24:00J. Michalik1.601111113M. Machelski2.107750LSep 7 · 23:10M. Machelski1.9516150A. Staniczek1.751811113LSep 7 · 22:00M. Machelski3.656670M. Warzecha1.211111113LSep 7 · 08:00J. Slawomir1.6511711113M. Machelski2.10811591
M. Brunner10
WSep 9 · 03:30H. Tkaczyk1.29461131M. Brunner3.1011118113WSep 9 · 02:45M. Brunner1.7771111113A. Krezel1.87118891WSep 9 · 01:10M. Brunner1.2111116113A. Barton3.65591151LSep 9 · 24:20K. Delikatny1.7751111113M. Brunner1.87116391LSep 8 · 23:05M. Brunner1.801111921A. Krezel1.9071311113LSep 8 · 21:30M. Brunner3.257117161H. Tkaczyk1.3011611183WSep 8 · 20:20M. Brunner1.901211113K. Delikatny1.8010460LSep 8 · 18:45M. Brunner2.008790J. Michalik1.671111113WSep 8 · 17:30M. Brunner1.3011311113A. Barton3.40411461WSep 2 · 04:20K. Gudzik1.7275111132M. Brunner1.96111175113
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