TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13098521
Played Sep 9Finished
Michal Machelski
Home
1.28
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1311116119––––
Aleksander Barton
Away
3.15
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:11 and never touched — 77.5% is still 77.5%
Graded at full timeMichal Machelski to win
77.5%
77.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
61 points played in total.
Set by set
1311116119––––
H2H Michal Machelski 23–2 Aleksander Barton Aleksander Barton has won 2 of their 25 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:11What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (71%)
Machelski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
23-2 in 25
Machelski
Correct
gap of 21 in 25, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Machelski 1283 vs Barton 1021
Machelski
Correct
both rated, 262 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Machelski 20% vs Barton 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Machelski 20% vs Barton 10%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Machelski -3 · Barton -2
Machelski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% — Strong (leans Machelski)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Barton form (20%) is below what odds imply (32%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMachelski 1.28 / Barton 3.15
Signal prob.77% / 23%
Edge (Machelski)+6.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13098521
Machelski1.28
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite63% won 95 of 151
Up 2–0, closes it92% 46 of 50
Up 1–0, closes it81% 69 of 85
Barton3.15
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog15% won 33 of 216
Down 0–1, comes back5% 8 of 158
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 124
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMachelski10wins
AwayBarton0wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMachelski leads 10–0, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMachelski100%6 of 6
AwayBarton0%0 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Machelski6Barton4n = 10Machelski took 6 of 10
S2Machelski6Barton4n = 10Machelski took 6 of 10
S3Machelski7Barton3n = 10Machelski took 7 of 10
S4Machelski8Barton0n = 8Machelski took 8 of 8
S5Machelski3Barton0n = 3Machelski took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMachelskiBartonM − BBasisWins100+10in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.934.6+8.3per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMachelskiBartonBasisWin rate · lifetime421 / 1143 vs 82 / 38736.8%21.2%421 / 1143 vs 82 / 387Avg sets wonper match1.71.2per matchAvg pointsper match35.231.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MachelskiMachelski 1.28/Barton 3.15
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
77.4%
Machelski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Machelski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 7 · 04:50M. Machelski—1191011113A. Barton—81112792
WSep 1 · 24:00M. Machelski—111111113A. Barton—651371
WAug 27 · 03:05M. Machelski—111012113A. Barton—9121041
WAug 6 · 01:30M. Machelski—1112113A. Barton—71030
WAug 5 · 19:30M. Machelski—871111153A. Barton—111199132
WJul 28 · 24:00M. Machelski—1111113A. Barton—8660
WJul 21 · 24:00M. Machelski—91112113A. Barton—1131051
WJul 16 · 03:55M. Machelski—51111113A. Barton—117761
WJul 15 · 21:55M. Machelski—11911113A. Barton—811651
WJul 14 · 24:00M. Machelski—511511153A. Barton—117118132
M. Machelski10
LSep 9 · 24:45H. Tkaczyk1.221111113M. Machelski3.558640LSep 8 · 23:55M. Machelski1.96115118122A. Krezel1.69211711143LSep 8 · 02:20M. Machelski1.868860A. Krezel1.801111113WSep 8 · 24:45M. Karpiuk1.80146118112M. Machelski1.911211711133LSep 8 · 24:00J. Michalik1.601111113M. Machelski2.107750LSep 7 · 23:10M. Machelski1.9516150A. Staniczek1.751811113LSep 7 · 22:00M. Machelski3.656670M. Warzecha1.211111113LSep 7 · 08:00J. Slawomir1.6511711113M. Machelski2.10811591LSep 7 · 07:10A. Zmijewski1.4541111113M. Machelski2.50113841WSep 7 · 06:25M. Machelski2.05712711113M. Wolny1.68111011952
A. Barton10
LSep 9 · 01:10M. Brunner1.2111116113A. Barton3.65591151LSep 8 · 23:30H. Tkaczyk1.08111110113A. Barton6.43971281WSep 8 · 22:40K. Delikatny1.326720A. Barton3.051111113LSep 8 · 21:55A. Krezel1.2411911113A. Barton3.40411581LSep 8 · 19:55J. Michalik1.17713711113A. Barton4.05111111882LSep 8 · 19:10H. Tkaczyk1.0611811113A. Barton6.50711641LSep 8 · 17:30M. Brunner1.3011311113A. Barton3.40411461LSep 7 · 08:20W. Stechly2.10114611113A. Barton1.6791111672LSep 7 · 07:35M. Wolny1.3381111113A. Barton3.10119861LSep 7 · 05:35J. Slawomir1.121191110133A. Barton5.10411312112
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