TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13108547
Played Sep 10Finished
Michal Guzik
Home
1.15
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
411112611117116
Michal Machelski
Away
4.35
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:15 and never touched — 55.1% is still 55.1%
Graded at full timeMichal Guzik to win
55.1%
55.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
80 points played in total.
Set by set
411112611117116
H2H Michal Guzik 3–3 Michal Machelski Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:15What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.15 (79%)
Guzik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Guzik 1584 vs Machelski 1310
Guzik
Correct
both rated, 274 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Guzik 40% vs Machelski 60%
Machelski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Guzik 60% vs Machelski 40%
Guzik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Guzik -3 · Machelski +1
Guzik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 82% — Strong (leans Guzik) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Machelski form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (23%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGuzik 1.15 / Machelski 4.35
Signal prob.82% / 18%
Edge (Guzik)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13108547
Guzik1.15
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite75% won 117 of 156
Up 2–0, closes it96% 68 of 71
Up 1–0, closes it89% 86 of 97
Machelski4.35
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog33% won 117 of 358
Down 0–1, comes back17% 35 of 205
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 123
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeGuzik3wins
AwayMachelski3wins
3 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 3 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGuzikn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayMachelski50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Guzik2Machelski4n = 6Machelski took 4 of 6
S2Guzik4Machelski2n = 6Guzik took 4 of 6
S3Guzik5Machelski1n = 6Guzik took 5 of 6
S4Guzik2Machelski3n = 5Machelski took 3 of 5
S5Guzik1Machelski2n = 3Machelski took 2 of 3
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away233%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricGuzikMachelskiG − MBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set24−2of 6Avg pointsper match42.740.0+2.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGuzikMachelskiBasisWin rate · lifetime125 / 171 vs 422 / 113773.1%37.1%125 / 171 vs 422 / 1137Avg sets wonper match2.51.7per matchAvg pointsper match38.935.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GuzikGuzik 1.15/Machelski 4.35
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
81.9%
Guzik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Guzik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WSep 3 · 21:45M. Guzik—71111113M. Machelski—119551
LSep 3 · 17:45M. Guzik—3111061M. Machelski—11912113
WAug 2 · 23:20M. Guzik—1251411113M. Machelski—141112532
WAug 2 · 17:20M. Guzik—1111113M. Machelski—5480
LJul 25 · 21:10M. Guzik—714116112M. Machelski—1112611133
LJul 25 · 16:50M. Guzik—119131172M. Machelski—6111113113
M. Guzik10
WSep 10 · 20:20J. Michalik3.259870M. Guzik1.301111113LSep 10 · 18:20M. Guzik2.106650D. Molenda1.601111113LSep 7 · 01:45M. Lewczuk2.501115113M. Guzik1.5061360LSep 7 · 01:00J. Zelezik2.6381115113M. Guzik1.441171391WSep 7 · 24:10M. Guzik1.2011511113J. Skorupa4.33911681WSep 6 · 22:35M. Guzik1.201111113G. Mucha4.336730WSep 6 · 21:45Z. Nocun5.0098120M. Guzik1.141111143WSep 6 · 20:30M. Guzik1.201081111113J. Skorupa4.3312116762LSep 6 · 18:55M. Guzik1.4412115111J. Zelezik2.6314611133WSep 6 · 17:45M. Guzik1.171111113Z. Nocun4.507340
M. Machelski10
LSep 10 · 20:45D. Molenda1.1011811113M. Machelski5.20511261WSep 10 · 17:55H. Tkaczyk1.2311118962M. Machelski3.50671111113LSep 9 · 04:20M. Machelski2.0911811332M. Brunner1.68611311113WSep 9 · 03:05M. Machelski2.11117127113K. Delikatny1.66911101152WSep 9 · 01:55M. Machelski1.281311113A. Barton3.1511690LSep 9 · 24:45H. Tkaczyk1.221111113M. Machelski3.558640LSep 8 · 23:55M. Machelski1.96115118122A. Krezel1.69211711143LSep 8 · 02:20M. Machelski1.868860A. Krezel1.801111113WSep 8 · 24:45M. Karpiuk1.80146118112M. Machelski1.911211711133LSep 8 · 24:00J. Michalik1.601111113M. Machelski2.107750
Upcoming Matches
M. Guzik
M. Machelski
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