TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13109482
Played Sep 10Finished
Dariusz Molenda
Home
1.10
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
115811112116––
Michal Machelski
Away
5.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:34 and never touched — 64.5% is still 64.5%
Graded at full timeDariusz Molenda to win
64.5%
64.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
65 points played in total.
Set by set
115811112116––
H2H Dariusz Molenda 5–2 Michal Machelski Michal Machelski has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:34What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.10 (83%)
Molenda
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-2 in 7
Molenda
Correct
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Molenda 1634 vs Machelski 1306
Molenda
Correct
both rated, 328 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Molenda 80% vs Machelski 60%
Molenda
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Molenda 80% vs Machelski 40%
Molenda
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Molenda +2 · Machelski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 84% — Strong (leans Molenda) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Machelski form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (19%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMolenda 1.10 / Machelski 5.20
Signal prob.84% / 16%
Edge (Molenda)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13109482
Molenda1.10
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite81% won 122 of 151
Up 2–0, closes it98% 82 of 84
Up 1–0, closes it92% 106 of 115
Machelski5.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog33% won 117 of 358
Down 0–1, comes back17% 35 of 205
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 123
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeMolenda5wins
AwayMachelski2wins
1 of 7 to a deciderMolenda leads 5–2, and 1 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMolenda100%3 of 3
AwayMachelski66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Molenda3Machelski3n = 6split evenly
S2Molenda2Machelski4n = 6Machelski took 4 of 6
S3Molenda5Machelski1n = 6Molenda took 5 of 6
S4Molenda3Machelski1n = 4Molenda took 3 of 4
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home343%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricMolendaMachelskiMolenda − MachelskiBasisWins52+3in 7 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match36.334.0+2.3per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMolendaMachelskiBasisWin rate · lifetime215 / 272 vs 422 / 113879%37.1%215 / 272 vs 422 / 1138Avg sets wonper match2.61.7per matchAvg pointsper match38.035.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MolendaMolenda 1.10/Machelski 5.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
83.7%
Molenda · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Molenda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LJul 23 · 22:20D. Molenda—921131M. Machelski—11117113
WJul 21 · 18:20D. Molenda—11611113M. Machelski—511731
LJul 9 · 18:20D. Molenda—101160M. Machelski—1213113
WJul 2 · 18:20D. Molenda—111013113M. Machelski—4121171
WMay 28 · 18:20D. Molenda—1212123M. Machelski—1010100
WJan 20 · 21:45D. Molenda—111311113M. Machelski—1311591
D. Molenda10
WSep 10 · 19:10D. Molenda1.2811711113J. Zelezik3.15611591WSep 10 · 18:20M. Guzik2.106650D. Molenda1.601111113LSep 3 · 22:20J. Zelezik3.151311133D. Molenda1.30116110WSep 3 · 21:30M. Wolny4.557550D. Molenda1.151111113WSep 3 · 20:45D. Molenda1.051111113A. Staniczek7.109850LSep 3 · 19:10D. Molenda1.1761111572J. Skorupa4.30118711113WSep 3 · 18:20Z. Nocun4.0013670D. Molenda1.211511113WSep 1 · 22:20H. Tkaczyk2.359670D. Molenda1.501111113WSep 1 · 21:30M. Brunner6.259550D. Molenda1.081111113WSep 1 · 20:45D. Molenda1.2511116113K. Gudzik3.40551151
M. Machelski10
LSep 10 · 19:30M. Guzik1.15411611113M. Machelski4.3511211762WSep 10 · 17:55H. Tkaczyk1.2311118962M. Machelski3.50671111113LSep 9 · 04:20M. Machelski2.0911811332M. Brunner1.68611311113WSep 9 · 03:05M. Machelski2.11117127113K. Delikatny1.66911101152WSep 9 · 01:55M. Machelski1.281311113A. Barton3.1511690LSep 9 · 24:45H. Tkaczyk1.221111113M. Machelski3.558640LSep 8 · 23:55M. Machelski1.96115118122A. Krezel1.69211711143LSep 8 · 02:20M. Machelski1.868860A. Krezel1.801111113WSep 8 · 24:45M. Karpiuk1.80146118112M. Machelski1.911211711133LSep 8 · 24:00J. Michalik1.601111113M. Machelski2.107750
Upcoming Matches
D. Molenda
M. Machelski
Sep 10 · 21:55M. Machelski2.85J. Zelezik1.33—Sep 10 · 23:05M. Machelski2.40J. Michalik1.50—Sep 10 · 23:55M. Machelski3.50H. Tkaczyk1.23—Sep 11 · 01:30M. Machelski4.35M. Guzik1.15—Sep 11 · 02:45M. Machelski2.39J. Michalik1.47—Sep 11 · 03:55M. Machelski2.85J. Zelezik1.33—Sep 11 · 05:05M. Machelski1.32W. Stechly2.90—
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