TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13109475
Played Sep 10Finished
Michal Machelski
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1181210117––––
Jacek Zelezik
Away
1.47
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:35 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJacek Zelezik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
59 points played in total.
Set by set
1181210117––––
H2H Michal Machelski 11–10 Jacek Zelezik Jacek Zelezik has won 10 of their 21 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:35What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.47 (63%)
Zelezik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-10 in 21
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Machelski 1302 vs Zelezik 1413
Zelezik
Wrong
both rated, 111 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Machelski 40% vs Zelezik 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Machelski 40% vs Zelezik 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Machelski -2 · Zelezik -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Zelezik) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zelezik form (40%) is below what odds imply (68%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMachelski 2.50 / Zelezik 1.47
Signal prob.33% / 67%
Edge (Zelezik)+3.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13109475
Machelski2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog33% won 117 of 358
Down 0–1, comes back17% 35 of 205
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 123
Zelezik1.47
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite69% won 180 of 260
Up 2–0, closes it96% 106 of 111
Up 1–0, closes it82% 139 of 170
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMachelski6wins
AwayZelezik4wins
6 of 10 to a deciderMachelski leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMachelskin = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayZelezik50%4 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Machelski2Zelezik8n = 10Zelezik took 8 of 10
S2Machelski7Zelezik3n = 10Machelski took 7 of 10
S3Machelski6Zelezik4n = 10Machelski took 6 of 10
S4Machelski3Zelezik3n = 6split evenly
S5Machelski4Zelezik2n = 6Machelski took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMachelskiZelezikM − ZBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match42.140.1+2.0per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMachelskiZelezikBasisWin rate · lifetime422 / 1139 vs 366 / 68037.1%53.8%422 / 1139 vs 366 / 680Avg sets wonper match1.72.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.236.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZelezikMachelski 2.50/Zelezik 1.47
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.6%
Zelezik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Machelski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 31 · 22:00M. Machelski—1111173J. Zelezik—79150
WAug 31 · 18:50M. Machelski—10111112113J. Zelezik—12561492
LAug 10 · 22:00M. Machelski—41070J. Zelezik—1112113
WJul 3 · 24:20M. Machelski—915117123J. Zelezik—1113311102
LJul 2 · 20:20M. Machelski—91181162J. Zelezik—119119113
WJun 29 · 22:25M. Machelski—911814113J. Zelezik—116111272
LJun 25 · 01:30M. Machelski—7670J. Zelezik—1111113
WJun 24 · 19:30M. Machelski—812116113J. Zelezik—111081142
WMay 16 · 22:00M. Machelski—1111113J. Zelezik—7470
LMay 16 · 18:00M. Machelski—149111182J. Zelezik—161174113
M. Machelski10
LSep 10 · 20:45D. Molenda1.1011811113M. Machelski5.20511261LSep 10 · 19:30M. Guzik1.15411611113M. Machelski4.3511211762WSep 10 · 17:55H. Tkaczyk1.2311118962M. Machelski3.50671111113LSep 9 · 04:20M. Machelski2.0911811332M. Brunner1.68611311113WSep 9 · 03:05M. Machelski2.11117127113K. Delikatny1.66911101152WSep 9 · 01:55M. Machelski1.281311113A. Barton3.1511690LSep 9 · 24:45H. Tkaczyk1.221111113M. Machelski3.558640LSep 8 · 23:55M. Machelski1.96115118122A. Krezel1.69211711143LSep 8 · 02:20M. Machelski1.868860A. Krezel1.801111113WSep 8 · 24:45M. Karpiuk1.80146118112M. Machelski1.911211711133
J. Zelezik10
WSep 10 · 22:40M. Guzik1.387890J. Zelezik2.651111113LSep 10 · 19:55H. Tkaczyk1.5510111111113J. Zelezik2.1912137552LSep 10 · 19:10D. Molenda1.2811711113J. Zelezik3.15611591WSep 10 · 17:30J. Michalik2.101778121J. Zelezik1.60151111143WSep 8 · 01:50J. Zelezik2.5051111113H. Tkaczyk1.50117771LSep 8 · 24:30J. Zelezik1.36111121392A. Kubiak3.001361111113LSep 7 · 23:30J. Zelezik1.838760M. Krutak1.831111113WSep 7 · 22:10J. Zelezik1.73111147123M. Lewczuk2.00681111102WSep 7 · 21:00J. Zelezik1.61711811113J. Skorupa2.2011711952LSep 7 · 19:40M. Lewczuk2.00591111113J. Zelezik1.7311119892
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