TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13109479
Played Sep 10Finished
Henryk Tkaczyk
Home
1.90
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1311115611911118
Michal Guzik
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:34 and never touched — 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeHenryk Tkaczyk to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
96 points played in total.
Set by set
1311115611911118
H2H Henryk Tkaczyk 7–3 Michal Guzik Michal Guzik has won 3 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:34What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Guzik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-3 in 10
Tkaczyk
Correct
gap of 4 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tkaczyk 1558 vs Guzik 1597
Guzik
Wrong
both rated, 39 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tkaczyk 40% vs Guzik 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tkaczyk 60% vs Guzik 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Tkaczyk +2 · Guzik +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Guzik) · live re-read · sealed at 44% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Guzik form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTkaczyk 1.90 / Guzik 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Guzik)+2.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13109479
Tkaczyk1.90
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog53% won 69 of 130
Down 0–1, comes back30% 17 of 56
Down 0–2, comes back12% 4 of 34
Guzik1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite75% won 117 of 156
Up 2–0, closes it96% 68 of 71
Up 1–0, closes it89% 86 of 97
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTkaczyk7wins
AwayGuzik3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderTkaczyk leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTkaczyk85.7%6 of 7
AwayGuzik66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tkaczyk7Guzik3n = 10Tkaczyk took 7 of 10
S2Tkaczyk7Guzik3n = 10Tkaczyk took 7 of 10
S3Tkaczyk8Guzik2n = 10Tkaczyk took 8 of 10
S4Tkaczyk2Guzik3n = 5Guzik took 3 of 5
S5Tkaczyk2Guzik2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricTkaczykGuzikT − GBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.332.7+4.6per matchSweeps50+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTkaczykGuzikBasisWin rate · lifetime1005 / 1508 vs 127 / 17366.6%73.4%1005 / 1508 vs 127 / 173Avg sets wonper match2.42.5per matchAvg pointsper match38.638.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GuzikTkaczyk 1.90/Guzik 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Guzik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Tkaczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 4 · 24:10H. Tkaczyk—116118123M. Guzik—311811102
WSep 3 · 20:30H. Tkaczyk—1113113M. Guzik—31180
LAug 28 · 02:10H. Tkaczyk—51191152M. Guzik—115115113
WAug 27 · 20:05H. Tkaczyk—1211123M. Guzik—105100
LAug 21 · 02:35H. Tkaczyk—11511552M. Guzik—811711113
LAug 20 · 18:10H. Tkaczyk—711671M. Guzik—11811113
WAug 4 · 02:20H. Tkaczyk—1111113M. Guzik—5680
WAug 3 · 20:20H. Tkaczyk—951111113M. Guzik—11118992
WJul 16 · 21:00H. Tkaczyk—1111113M. Guzik—4860
WJul 16 · 16:35H. Tkaczyk—1111113M. Guzik—6590
H. Tkaczyk10
WSep 10 · 19:55H. Tkaczyk1.5510111111113J. Zelezik2.1912137552WSep 10 · 18:45J. Michalik2.6081111582H. Tkaczyk1.41118811113LSep 10 · 17:55H. Tkaczyk1.2311118962M. Machelski3.50671111113LSep 9 · 05:05H. Tkaczyk1.36111171082A. Krezel3.00961112113LSep 9 · 03:30H. Tkaczyk1.29461131M. Brunner3.1011118113LSep 9 · 02:20H. Tkaczyk1.328670K. Delikatny2.901111113WSep 9 · 24:45H. Tkaczyk1.221111113M. Machelski3.558640WSep 8 · 23:30H. Tkaczyk1.08111110113A. Barton6.43971281WSep 8 · 22:20J. Michalik2.857650H. Tkaczyk1.331111113WSep 8 · 21:30M. Brunner3.257117161H. Tkaczyk1.3011611183
M. Guzik10
WSep 10 · 20:20J. Michalik3.259870M. Guzik1.301111113WSep 10 · 19:30M. Guzik1.15411611113M. Machelski4.3511211762LSep 10 · 18:20M. Guzik2.106650D. Molenda1.601111113LSep 7 · 01:45M. Lewczuk2.501115113M. Guzik1.5061360LSep 7 · 01:00J. Zelezik2.6381115113M. Guzik1.441171391WSep 7 · 24:10M. Guzik1.2011511113J. Skorupa4.33911681WSep 6 · 22:35M. Guzik1.201111113G. Mucha4.336730WSep 6 · 21:45Z. Nocun5.0098120M. Guzik1.141111143WSep 6 · 20:30M. Guzik1.201081111113J. Skorupa4.3312116762LSep 6 · 18:55M. Guzik1.4412115111J. Zelezik2.6314611133
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