TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13110079
Played Sep 11Finished
Jerzy Michalik
Home
1.90
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1157111210911711
Jacek Zelezik
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:28 and never touched — 65.2% is still 65.2%
Graded at full timeJacek Zelezik to win
65.2%
65.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
94 points played in total.
Set by set
1157111210911711
H2H Jerzy Michalik 2–17 Jacek Zelezik Jerzy Michalik has won 2 of their 19 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 8h before this match
Zelezik beat Michalik 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:28What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Zelezik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-17 in 19
Zelezik
Correct
gap of 15 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Michalik 1437 vs Zelezik 1421
Michalik
Wrong
both rated, 16 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Michalik 40% vs Zelezik 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Michalik 40% vs Zelezik 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Michalik +2 · Zelezik +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Zelezik) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zelezik form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMichalik 1.90 / Zelezik 1.80
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Zelezik)+4.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13110079
Michalik1.90
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog36% won 117 of 330
Down 0–1, comes back19% 35 of 187
Down 0–2, comes back4% 4 of 108
Zelezik1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite69% won 180 of 260
Up 2–0, closes it96% 106 of 111
Up 1–0, closes it82% 139 of 170
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMichalik1wins
AwayZelezik9wins
2 of 10 to a deciderZelezik leads 9–1, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMichalik20%1 of 5
AwayZelezik100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Michalik5Zelezik5n = 10split evenly
S2Michalik2Zelezik8n = 10Zelezik took 8 of 10
S3Michalik1Zelezik9n = 10Zelezik took 9 of 10
S4Michalik0Zelezik6n = 6Zelezik took 6 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricMichalikZelezikM − ZBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match30.340.5−10.2per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMichalikZelezikBasisWin rate · lifetime541 / 1148 vs 368 / 68347.1%53.9%541 / 1148 vs 368 / 683Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.436.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZelezikMichalik 1.90/Zelezik 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.7%
Zelezik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Zelezik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 10 · 17:30J. Michalik—1778121J. Zelezik—151111143
LAug 26 · 24:45J. Michalik—11122432J. Zelezik—5101111113
LAug 4 · 02:00J. Michalik—117991J. Zelezik—81111113
LJul 31 · 02:35J. Michalik—3770J. Zelezik—1111113
WJul 30 · 18:10J. Michalik—114115123J. Zelezik—811511102
LJul 7 · 23:30J. Michalik—8520J. Zelezik—1111113
LJul 3 · 02:45J. Michalik—1111981J. Zelezik—13911113
LJul 2 · 23:05J. Michalik—96100J. Zelezik—1111123
LMay 22 · 21:35J. Michalik—128481J. Zelezik—101111113
LMay 22 · 15:35J. Michalik—6860J. Zelezik—1111113
J. Michalik10
WSep 11 · 24:20M. Guzik1.76791191J. Michalik1.9611117113WSep 10 · 23:05J. Michalik1.53411119113M. Machelski2.3511661172LSep 10 · 21:30J. Michalik3.50131260D. Molenda1.251514113LSep 10 · 20:20J. Michalik3.259870M. Guzik1.301111113LSep 10 · 18:45J. Michalik2.6081111582H. Tkaczyk1.41118811113LSep 10 · 17:30J. Michalik2.101778121J. Zelezik1.60151111143LSep 8 · 22:20J. Michalik2.857650H. Tkaczyk1.331111113LSep 8 · 21:05J. Michalik1.851012731K. Delikatny1.85121011113WSep 8 · 19:55J. Michalik1.17713711113A. Barton4.05111111882WSep 8 · 18:45M. Brunner2.008790J. Michalik1.671111113
J. Zelezik10
WSep 10 · 23:30W. Stechly4.706840J. Zelezik1.131111113WSep 10 · 22:40M. Guzik1.387890J. Zelezik2.651111113LSep 10 · 21:55M. Machelski2.501112113J. Zelezik1.4781070LSep 10 · 19:55H. Tkaczyk1.5510111111113J. Zelezik2.1912137552LSep 10 · 19:10D. Molenda1.2811711113J. Zelezik3.15611591WSep 10 · 17:30J. Michalik2.101778121J. Zelezik1.60151111143WSep 8 · 01:50J. Zelezik2.5051111113H. Tkaczyk1.50117771LSep 8 · 24:30J. Zelezik1.36111121392A. Kubiak3.001361111113LSep 7 · 23:30J. Zelezik1.838760M. Krutak1.831111113WSep 7 · 22:10J. Zelezik1.73111147123M. Lewczuk2.00681111102
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