TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13109819
Played Sep 11Finished
Michal Guzik
Home
1.76
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711911117911––
Jerzy Michalik
Away
1.96
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:54 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Guzik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
76 points played in total.
Set by set
711911117911––
H2H Michal Guzik 4–3 Jerzy Michalik Jerzy Michalik has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Guzik beat Michalik 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:54What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.76 (53%)
Guzik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-3 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Guzik 1561 vs Michalik 1419
Guzik
Wrong
both rated, 142 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Guzik 40% vs Michalik 20%
Guzik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Guzik 50% vs Michalik 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Guzik -2 · Michalik +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Guzik) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Michalik form (20%) is below what odds imply (51%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGuzik 1.76 / Michalik 1.96
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Guzik)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13109819
Guzik1.76
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite75% won 117 of 156
Up 2–0, closes it96% 68 of 71
Up 1–0, closes it89% 86 of 97
Michalik1.96
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog36% won 117 of 330
Down 0–1, comes back19% 35 of 187
Down 0–2, comes back4% 4 of 108
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeGuzik4wins
AwayMichalik3wins
3 of 7 to a deciderGuzik leads 4–3, and 3 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGuzikn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayMichalik40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Guzik2Michalik5n = 7Michalik took 5 of 7
S2Guzik3Michalik4n = 7Michalik took 4 of 7
S3Guzik6Michalik1n = 7Guzik took 6 of 7
S4Guzik5Michalik1n = 6Guzik took 5 of 6
S5Guzik1Michalik2n = 3Michalik took 2 of 3
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home229%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away229%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricGuzikMichalikG − MBasisWins43+1in 7 meetingsFirst set25−3of 7Avg pointsper match42.938.7+4.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGuzikMichalikBasisWin rate · lifetime127 / 175 vs 540 / 114772.6%47.1%127 / 175 vs 540 / 1147Avg sets wonper match2.51.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.837.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GuzikGuzik 1.76/Michalik 1.96
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.9%
Guzik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Michalik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WSep 10 · 20:20M. Guzik—1111113J. Michalik—9870
LSep 4 · 01:00M. Guzik—116581J. Michalik—51111113
WSep 3 · 18:55M. Guzik—891115123J. Michalik—1111613102
LAug 4 · 24:45M. Guzik—99111172J. Michalik—111148113
WJul 30 · 22:55M. Guzik—101111113J. Michalik—129631
WJul 30 · 16:55M. Guzik—51411113J. Michalik—1112641
LJul 28 · 01:30M. Guzik—1111111172J. Michalik—131358113
M. Guzik10
LSep 10 · 22:40M. Guzik1.387890J. Zelezik2.651111113LSep 10 · 21:05H. Tkaczyk1.90131169113M. Guzik1.80115111182WSep 10 · 20:20J. Michalik3.259870M. Guzik1.301111113WSep 10 · 19:30M. Guzik1.15411611113M. Machelski4.3511211762LSep 10 · 18:20M. Guzik2.106650D. Molenda1.601111113LSep 7 · 01:45M. Lewczuk2.501115113M. Guzik1.5061360LSep 7 · 01:00J. Zelezik2.6381115113M. Guzik1.441171391WSep 7 · 24:10M. Guzik1.2011511113J. Skorupa4.33911681WSep 6 · 22:35M. Guzik1.201111113G. Mucha4.336730WSep 6 · 21:45Z. Nocun5.0098120M. Guzik1.141111143
J. Michalik10
WSep 10 · 23:05J. Michalik1.53411119113M. Machelski2.3511661172LSep 10 · 21:30J. Michalik3.50131260D. Molenda1.251514113LSep 10 · 20:20J. Michalik3.259870M. Guzik1.301111113LSep 10 · 18:45J. Michalik2.6081111582H. Tkaczyk1.41118811113LSep 10 · 17:30J. Michalik2.101778121J. Zelezik1.60151111143LSep 8 · 22:20J. Michalik2.857650H. Tkaczyk1.331111113LSep 8 · 21:05J. Michalik1.851012731K. Delikatny1.85121011113WSep 8 · 19:55J. Michalik1.17713711113A. Barton4.05111111882WSep 8 · 18:45M. Brunner2.008790J. Michalik1.671111113WSep 8 · 17:55J. Michalik1.833111011113A. Krezel1.8711412962
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