TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13110344
Played Sep 11Finished
Jerzy Michalik
Home
1.47
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1181188111012811
Michal Machelski
Away
2.39
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:34 and never touched — 63.4% is still 63.4%
Graded at full timeJerzy Michalik to win
63.4%
63.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
98 points played in total.
Set by set
1181188111012811
H2H Jerzy Michalik 57–24 Michal Machelski Michal Machelski has won 24 of their 81 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Michalik beat Machelski 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:34What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.47 (62%)
Michalik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
57-24 in 81
Michalik
Wrong
gap of 33 in 81, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Michalik 1425 vs Machelski 1303
Michalik
Wrong
both rated, 122 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Michalik 40% vs Machelski 20%
Michalik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Michalik 30% vs Machelski 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Michalik -1 · Machelski -3
Machelski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Michalik) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Machelski form (20%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMichalik 1.47 / Machelski 2.39
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Michalik)+2.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13110344
Michalik1.47
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite62% won 154 of 249
Up 2–0, closes it95% 78 of 82
Up 1–0, closes it77% 110 of 143
Machelski2.39
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog33% won 117 of 358
Down 0–1, comes back17% 35 of 205
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 123
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMichalik6wins
AwayMachelski4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMichalik leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMichalik75%3 of 4
AwayMachelski50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Michalik4Machelski6n = 10Machelski took 6 of 10
S2Michalik6Machelski4n = 10Michalik took 6 of 10
S3Michalik9Machelski1n = 10Michalik took 9 of 10
S4Michalik3Machelski4n = 7Machelski took 4 of 7
S5Michalik1Machelski2n = 3Machelski took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMichalikMachelskiMichalik − MachelskiBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.437.1+2.3per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMichalikMachelskiBasisWin rate · lifetime541 / 1149 vs 422 / 114047.1%37%541 / 1149 vs 422 / 1140Avg sets wonper match1.91.7per matchAvg pointsper match37.435.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MichalikMichalik 1.47/Machelski 2.39
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.3%
Michalik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Machelski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 10 · 23:05J. Michalik—411119113M. Machelski—11661172
WSep 8 · 24:00J. Michalik—1111113M. Machelski—7750
LSep 3 · 23:45J. Michalik—11811111M. Machelski—13118133
WSep 3 · 15:50J. Michalik—91111113M. Machelski—116691
LJul 27 · 05:10J. Michalik—7990M. Machelski—1111113
LJul 24 · 01:55J. Michalik—111113182M. Machelski—9131111113
WJul 23 · 19:55J. Michalik—81313113M. Machelski—11111171
WJul 22 · 02:20J. Michalik—111011113M. Machelski—412981
WJul 20 · 07:35J. Michalik—1111113M. Machelski—5770
LJul 10 · 01:30J. Michalik—51312572M. Machelski—11111011113
J. Michalik10
WSep 11 · 04:20H. Tkaczyk1.438980J. Michalik2.501111113LSep 11 · 03:30W. Stechly4.0551117113J. Michalik1.181191581LSep 11 · 01:10J. Michalik1.9011712972J. Zelezik1.805111011113WSep 11 · 24:20M. Guzik1.76791191J. Michalik1.9611117113WSep 10 · 23:05J. Michalik1.53411119113M. Machelski2.3511661172LSep 10 · 21:30J. Michalik3.50131260D. Molenda1.251514113LSep 10 · 20:20J. Michalik3.259870M. Guzik1.301111113LSep 10 · 18:45J. Michalik2.6081111582H. Tkaczyk1.41118811113LSep 10 · 17:30J. Michalik2.101778121J. Zelezik1.60151111143LSep 8 · 22:20J. Michalik2.857650H. Tkaczyk1.331111113
M. Machelski10
LSep 11 · 03:55M. Machelski2.75131110101J. Zelezik1.3715612123LSep 11 · 01:30M. Guzik1.2111119113M. Machelski3.92561171LSep 10 · 23:55H. Tkaczyk1.2511111211113M. Machelski3.4513814632LSep 10 · 23:05J. Michalik1.53411119113M. Machelski2.3511661172WSep 10 · 21:55M. Machelski2.501112113J. Zelezik1.4781070LSep 10 · 20:45D. Molenda1.1011811113M. Machelski5.20511261LSep 10 · 19:30M. Guzik1.15411611113M. Machelski4.3511211762WSep 10 · 17:55H. Tkaczyk1.2311118962M. Machelski3.50671111113LSep 9 · 04:20M. Machelski2.0911811332M. Brunner1.68611311113WSep 9 · 03:05M. Machelski2.11117127113K. Delikatny1.66911101152
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