TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13110784
Played Sep 11Finished
Henryk Tkaczyk
Home
1.43
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811911811––––
Jerzy Michalik
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:45 and never touched — 55.2% is still 55.2%
Graded at full timeHenryk Tkaczyk to win
55.2%
55.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
58 points played in total.
Set by set
811911811––––
H2H Henryk Tkaczyk 62–28 Jerzy Michalik Jerzy Michalik has won 28 of their 90 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 10h before this match
Tkaczyk beat Michalik 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:45What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.43 (64%)
Tkaczyk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
62-28 in 90
Tkaczyk
Wrong
gap of 34 in 90, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tkaczyk 1589 vs Michalik 1388
Tkaczyk
Wrong
both rated, 201 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tkaczyk 80% vs Michalik 40%
Tkaczyk
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tkaczyk 70% vs Michalik 20%
Tkaczyk
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tkaczyk +4 · Michalik -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Tkaczyk) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tkaczyk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (70%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTkaczyk 1.43 / Michalik 2.50
Signal prob.68% / 32%
Edge (Tkaczyk)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13110784
Tkaczyk1.43
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite69% won 399 of 577
Up 2–0, closes it94% 226 of 241
Up 1–0, closes it85% 311 of 365
Michalik2.50
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog36% won 117 of 330
Down 0–1, comes back19% 35 of 187
Down 0–2, comes back4% 4 of 108
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTkaczyk8wins
AwayMichalik2wins
6 of 10 to a deciderTkaczyk leads 8–2, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTkaczyk75%6 of 8
AwayMichalikn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tkaczyk8Michalik2n = 10Tkaczyk took 8 of 10
S2Tkaczyk7Michalik3n = 10Tkaczyk took 7 of 10
S3Tkaczyk5Michalik5n = 10split evenly
S4Tkaczyk4Michalik4n = 8split evenly
S5Tkaczyk4Michalik2n = 6Tkaczyk took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricTkaczykMichalikT − MBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match45.539.7+5.8per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTkaczykMichalikBasisWin rate · lifetime1010 / 1514 vs 541 / 115166.7%47%1010 / 1514 vs 541 / 1151Avg sets wonper match2.41.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.637.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkaczykTkaczyk 1.43/Michalik 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
68%
Tkaczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Michalik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 10 · 18:45H. Tkaczyk—118811113J. Michalik—81111582
WSep 8 · 22:20H. Tkaczyk—1111113J. Michalik—7650
WSep 4 · 02:35H. Tkaczyk—1111113J. Michalik—8360
LSep 3 · 18:10H. Tkaczyk—118111192J. Michalik—811613113
WSep 1 · 24:10H. Tkaczyk—11121113113J. Michalik—81461562
WAug 12 · 24:45H. Tkaczyk—111198123J. Michalik—981111102
WAug 7 · 01:30H. Tkaczyk—715812113J. Michalik—1113111062
WAug 6 · 19:55H. Tkaczyk—61111123J. Michalik—1198101
WAug 5 · 05:05H. Tkaczyk—11126113J. Michalik—9101191
LAug 3 · 23:35H. Tkaczyk—111110882J. Michalik—371211113
H. Tkaczyk10
WSep 11 · 03:05H. Tkaczyk1.859111111113M. Guzik1.8011913792WSep 11 · 01:55H. Tkaczyk1.561111113J. Zelezik2.197980WSep 11 · 24:45W. Stechly4.18911101142H. Tkaczyk1.19116123113WSep 10 · 23:55H. Tkaczyk1.2511111211113M. Machelski3.4513814632LSep 10 · 22:20H. Tkaczyk2.205840D. Molenda1.571111113WSep 10 · 21:05H. Tkaczyk1.90131169113M. Guzik1.80115111182WSep 10 · 19:55H. Tkaczyk1.5510111111113J. Zelezik2.1912137552WSep 10 · 18:45J. Michalik2.6081111582H. Tkaczyk1.41118811113LSep 10 · 17:55H. Tkaczyk1.2311118962M. Machelski3.50671111113LSep 9 · 05:05H. Tkaczyk1.36111171082A. Krezel3.00961112113
J. Michalik10
LSep 11 · 03:30W. Stechly4.0551117113J. Michalik1.181191581LSep 11 · 02:45J. Michalik1.47111181082M. Machelski2.39881112113LSep 11 · 01:10J. Michalik1.9011712972J. Zelezik1.805111011113WSep 11 · 24:20M. Guzik1.76791191J. Michalik1.9611117113WSep 10 · 23:05J. Michalik1.53411119113M. Machelski2.3511661172LSep 10 · 21:30J. Michalik3.50131260D. Molenda1.251514113LSep 10 · 20:20J. Michalik3.259870M. Guzik1.301111113LSep 10 · 18:45J. Michalik2.6081111582H. Tkaczyk1.41118811113LSep 10 · 17:30J. Michalik2.101778121J. Zelezik1.60151111143LSep 8 · 22:20J. Michalik2.857650H. Tkaczyk1.331111113
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