TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13110075
Played Sep 11Finished
Henryk Tkaczyk
Home
1.56
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117119118––––
Jacek Zelezik
Away
2.19
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:27 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeHenryk Tkaczyk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
57 points played in total.
Set by set
117119118––––
H2H Henryk Tkaczyk 25–15 Jacek Zelezik Jacek Zelezik has won 15 of their 40 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Tkaczyk beat Zelezik 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:27What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.56 (58%)
Tkaczyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
25-15 in 40
Tkaczyk
Correct
gap of 10 in 40, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tkaczyk 1566 vs Zelezik 1433
Tkaczyk
Correct
both rated, 133 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tkaczyk 80% vs Zelezik 60%
Tkaczyk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tkaczyk 50% vs Zelezik 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Tkaczyk +2 · Zelezik +3
Zelezik
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Tkaczyk) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zelezik form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (46%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTkaczyk 1.56 / Zelezik 2.19
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Tkaczyk)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13110075
Tkaczyk1.56
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite69% won 399 of 577
Up 2–0, closes it94% 226 of 241
Up 1–0, closes it85% 311 of 365
Zelezik2.19
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog44% won 91 of 206
Down 0–1, comes back26% 31 of 118
Down 0–2, comes back6% 4 of 68
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTkaczyk7wins
AwayZelezik3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderTkaczyk leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTkaczyk80%4 of 5
AwayZelezik40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tkaczyk5Zelezik5n = 10split evenly
S2Tkaczyk5Zelezik5n = 10split evenly
S3Tkaczyk7Zelezik3n = 10Tkaczyk took 7 of 10
S4Tkaczyk4Zelezik4n = 8split evenly
S5Tkaczyk3Zelezik0n = 3Tkaczyk took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricTkaczykZelezikT − ZBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.034.5+5.5per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTkaczykZelezikBasisWin rate · lifetime1008 / 1512 vs 369 / 68466.7%54%1008 / 1512 vs 369 / 684Avg sets wonper match2.42.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.636.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkaczykTkaczyk 1.56/Zelezik 2.19
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.6%
Tkaczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Tkaczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 10 · 19:55H. Tkaczyk—10111111113J. Zelezik—12137552
LSep 8 · 01:50H. Tkaczyk—117771J. Zelezik—51111113
WSep 7 · 18:10H. Tkaczyk—11511113J. Zelezik—511341
WAug 26 · 22:35H. Tkaczyk—7111111113J. Zelezik—11621352
WAug 26 · 15:00H. Tkaczyk—1181211123J. Zelezik—711147102
WAug 17 · 22:50H. Tkaczyk—1111113J. Zelezik—5630
WAug 17 · 15:10H. Tkaczyk—91214113J. Zelezik—11101291
LAug 3 · 22:50H. Tkaczyk—361151J. Zelezik—11115113
LAug 3 · 15:10H. Tkaczyk—1014551J. Zelezik—121211113
WJul 26 · 21:20H. Tkaczyk—1111113J. Zelezik—6640
H. Tkaczyk10
WSep 11 · 03:05H. Tkaczyk1.859111111113M. Guzik1.8011913792WSep 11 · 24:45W. Stechly4.18911101142H. Tkaczyk1.19116123113WSep 10 · 23:55H. Tkaczyk1.2511111211113M. Machelski3.4513814632LSep 10 · 22:20H. Tkaczyk2.205840D. Molenda1.571111113WSep 10 · 21:05H. Tkaczyk1.90131169113M. Guzik1.80115111182WSep 10 · 19:55H. Tkaczyk1.5510111111113J. Zelezik2.1912137552WSep 10 · 18:45J. Michalik2.6081111582H. Tkaczyk1.41118811113LSep 10 · 17:55H. Tkaczyk1.2311118962M. Machelski3.50671111113LSep 9 · 05:05H. Tkaczyk1.36111171082A. Krezel3.00961112113LSep 9 · 03:30H. Tkaczyk1.29461131M. Brunner3.1011118113
J. Zelezik10
WSep 11 · 01:10J. Michalik1.9011712972J. Zelezik1.805111011113WSep 10 · 23:30W. Stechly4.706840J. Zelezik1.131111113WSep 10 · 22:40M. Guzik1.387890J. Zelezik2.651111113LSep 10 · 21:55M. Machelski2.501112113J. Zelezik1.4781070LSep 10 · 19:55H. Tkaczyk1.5510111111113J. Zelezik2.1912137552LSep 10 · 19:10D. Molenda1.2811711113J. Zelezik3.15611591WSep 10 · 17:30J. Michalik2.101778121J. Zelezik1.60151111143WSep 8 · 01:50J. Zelezik2.5051111113H. Tkaczyk1.50117771LSep 8 · 24:30J. Zelezik1.36111121392A. Kubiak3.001361111113LSep 7 · 23:30J. Zelezik1.838760M. Krutak1.831111113
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