TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13110081
Played Sep 11Finished
Witold Stechly
Home
4.18
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
9111161012113411
Henryk Tkaczyk
Away
1.19
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:28 and never touched — 66.1% is still 66.1%
Graded at full timeHenryk Tkaczyk to win
66.1%
66.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
88 points played in total.
Set by set
9111161012113411
H2H Witold Stechly 4–21 Henryk Tkaczyk Witold Stechly has won 4 of their 25 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:28What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.19 (78%)
Tkaczyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-21 in 25
Tkaczyk
Correct
gap of 17 in 25, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stechly 1138 vs Tkaczyk 1564
Tkaczyk
Correct
both rated, 427 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stechly 40% vs Tkaczyk 80%
Tkaczyk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stechly 40% vs Tkaczyk 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stechly -2 · Tkaczyk +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 84% — Strong (leans Tkaczyk) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stechly form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (24%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStechly 4.18 / Tkaczyk 1.19
Signal prob.16% / 84%
Edge (Tkaczyk)+6.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13110081
Stechly4.18
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog21% won 48 of 234
Down 0–1, comes back11% 17 of 160
Down 0–2, comes back3% 3 of 106
Tkaczyk1.19
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite69% won 399 of 577
Up 2–0, closes it94% 226 of 241
Up 1–0, closes it85% 311 of 365
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStechly2wins
AwayTkaczyk8wins
2 of 10 to a deciderTkaczyk leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStechly33.3%1 of 3
AwayTkaczyk85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stechly3Tkaczyk7n = 10Tkaczyk took 7 of 10
S2Stechly1Tkaczyk9n = 10Tkaczyk took 9 of 10
S3Stechly5Tkaczyk5n = 10split evenly
S4Stechly2Tkaczyk5n = 7Tkaczyk took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricStechlyTkaczykS − TBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match30.339.5−9.2per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStechlyTkaczykBasisWin rate · lifetime87 / 529 vs 1007 / 151116.5%66.6%87 / 529 vs 1007 / 1511Avg sets wonper match1.22.4per matchAvg pointsper match33.038.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkaczykStechly 4.18/Tkaczyk 1.19
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
84.1%
Tkaczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Tkaczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 7 · 24:30W. Stechly—311381H. Tkaczyk—11611113
WJul 30 · 24:45W. Stechly—631111113H. Tkaczyk—11118672
WJul 24 · 03:30W. Stechly—11711133H. Tkaczyk—9118111
LJul 23 · 24:45W. Stechly—5760H. Tkaczyk—1111113
LJul 16 · 24:45W. Stechly—11912862H. Tkaczyk—8111011113
LJul 8 · 23:55W. Stechly—591191H. Tkaczyk—11118113
LJul 6 · 03:35W. Stechly—861171H. Tkaczyk—11119113
LJul 2 · 24:45W. Stechly—18100H. Tkaczyk—1111123
LJun 26 · 05:05W. Stechly—6640H. Tkaczyk—1111113
LMay 13 · 23:30W. Stechly—116841H. Tkaczyk—71111113
W. Stechly10
LSep 10 · 23:30W. Stechly4.706840J. Zelezik1.131111113LSep 10 · 04:00W. Stechly4.0811411782M. Warzecha1.20511511113WSep 10 · 03:00W. Stechly5.0581111113Z. Nocun1.11117591LSep 10 · 01:55W. Stechly4.20211571J. Skorupa1.1611811113WSep 10 · 24:45A. Staniczek1.7181511171W. Stechly2.0211178193LSep 9 · 23:55W. Stechly4.354650K. Gudzik1.151111113WSep 7 · 08:20W. Stechly2.10114611113A. Barton1.6791111672LSep 7 · 06:45J. Slawomir1.1015811113W. Stechly5.551311491LSep 7 · 06:00A. Zmijewski1.091111117123W. Stechly5.90136711102WSep 7 · 05:10W. Stechly5.20117119113M. Wolny1.1281151172
H. Tkaczyk10
WSep 10 · 23:55H. Tkaczyk1.2511111211113M. Machelski3.4513814632LSep 10 · 22:20H. Tkaczyk2.205840D. Molenda1.571111113WSep 10 · 21:05H. Tkaczyk1.90131169113M. Guzik1.80115111182WSep 10 · 19:55H. Tkaczyk1.5510111111113J. Zelezik2.1912137552WSep 10 · 18:45J. Michalik2.6081111582H. Tkaczyk1.41118811113LSep 10 · 17:55H. Tkaczyk1.2311118962M. Machelski3.50671111113LSep 9 · 05:05H. Tkaczyk1.36111171082A. Krezel3.00961112113LSep 9 · 03:30H. Tkaczyk1.29461131M. Brunner3.1011118113LSep 9 · 02:20H. Tkaczyk1.328670K. Delikatny2.901111113WSep 9 · 24:45H. Tkaczyk1.221111113M. Machelski3.558640
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