TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13110077
Played Sep 11Finished
Michal Guzik
Home
1.21
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
115116911117––
Michal Machelski
Away
3.92
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:28 and never touched — 55.1% is still 55.1%
Graded at full timeMichal Guzik to win
55.1%
55.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
71 points played in total.
Set by set
115116911117––
H2H Michal Guzik 4–3 Michal Machelski Michal Machelski has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Guzik beat Machelski 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:28What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.21 (76%)
Guzik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-3 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Guzik 1543 vs Machelski 1309
Guzik
Correct
both rated, 234 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Guzik 40% vs Machelski 20%
Guzik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Guzik 40% vs Machelski 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Guzik -3 · Machelski -2
Guzik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 80% — Strong (leans Guzik) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Guzik form (40%) is below what odds imply (83%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGuzik 1.21 / Machelski 3.92
Signal prob.80% / 20%
Edge (Guzik)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13110077
Guzik1.21
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite75% won 117 of 156
Up 2–0, closes it96% 68 of 71
Up 1–0, closes it89% 86 of 97
Machelski3.92
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog33% won 117 of 358
Down 0–1, comes back17% 35 of 205
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 123
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeGuzik4wins
AwayMachelski3wins
4 of 7 to a deciderGuzik leads 4–3, and 4 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGuzikn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayMachelski40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Guzik2Machelski5n = 7Machelski took 5 of 7
S2Guzik5Machelski2n = 7Guzik took 5 of 7
S3Guzik5Machelski2n = 7Guzik took 5 of 7
S4Guzik3Machelski3n = 6split evenly
S5Guzik2Machelski2n = 4split evenly
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home229%
2–3Decider, away229%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricGuzikMachelskiG − MBasisWins43+1in 7 meetingsFirst set25−3of 7Avg pointsper match42.739.6+3.1per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGuzikMachelskiBasisWin rate · lifetime127 / 176 vs 422 / 114172.2%37%127 / 176 vs 422 / 1141Avg sets wonper match2.51.7per matchAvg pointsper match38.835.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GuzikGuzik 1.21/Machelski 3.92
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
79.6%
Guzik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Guzik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WSep 10 · 19:30M. Guzik—411611113M. Machelski—11211762
WSep 3 · 21:45M. Guzik—71111113M. Machelski—119551
LSep 3 · 17:45M. Guzik—3111061M. Machelski—11912113
WAug 2 · 23:20M. Guzik—1251411113M. Machelski—141112532
WAug 2 · 17:20M. Guzik—1111113M. Machelski—5480
LJul 25 · 21:10M. Guzik—714116112M. Machelski—1112611133
LJul 25 · 16:50M. Guzik—119131172M. Machelski—6111113113
M. Guzik10
LSep 11 · 24:20M. Guzik1.76791191J. Michalik1.9611117113LSep 10 · 22:40M. Guzik1.387890J. Zelezik2.651111113LSep 10 · 21:05H. Tkaczyk1.90131169113M. Guzik1.80115111182WSep 10 · 20:20J. Michalik3.259870M. Guzik1.301111113WSep 10 · 19:30M. Guzik1.15411611113M. Machelski4.3511211762LSep 10 · 18:20M. Guzik2.106650D. Molenda1.601111113LSep 7 · 01:45M. Lewczuk2.501115113M. Guzik1.5061360LSep 7 · 01:00J. Zelezik2.6381115113M. Guzik1.441171391WSep 7 · 24:10M. Guzik1.2011511113J. Skorupa4.33911681WSep 6 · 22:35M. Guzik1.201111113G. Mucha4.336730
M. Machelski10
LSep 10 · 23:55H. Tkaczyk1.2511111211113M. Machelski3.4513814632LSep 10 · 23:05J. Michalik1.53411119113M. Machelski2.3511661172WSep 10 · 21:55M. Machelski2.501112113J. Zelezik1.4781070LSep 10 · 20:45D. Molenda1.1011811113M. Machelski5.20511261LSep 10 · 19:30M. Guzik1.15411611113M. Machelski4.3511211762WSep 10 · 17:55H. Tkaczyk1.2311118962M. Machelski3.50671111113LSep 9 · 04:20M. Machelski2.0911811332M. Brunner1.68611311113WSep 9 · 03:05M. Machelski2.11117127113K. Delikatny1.66911101152WSep 9 · 01:55M. Machelski1.281311113A. Barton3.1511690LSep 9 · 24:45H. Tkaczyk1.221111113M. Machelski3.558640
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