TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13004447
Played Aug 26Finished
Jacek Zelezik
Home
1.70
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911911711––––
Kacper Kwiatkowski
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:09 and never touched — 59.5% is still 59.5%
Graded at full timeJacek Zelezik to win
59.5%
59.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
58 points played in total.
Set by set
911911711––––
H2H Jacek Zelezik 9–3 Kacper Kwiatkowski Kacper Kwiatkowski has won 3 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:09What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.70 (54%)
Zelezik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-3 in 12
Zelezik
Wrong
gap of 6 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zelezik 1586 vs Kwiatkowski 1537
Zelezik
Wrong
both rated, 49 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zelezik 80% vs Kwiatkowski 60%
Zelezik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zelezik 70% vs Kwiatkowski 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zelezik +2 · Kwiatkowski +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Zelezik) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zelezik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (59%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZelezik 1.70 / Kwiatkowski 2.00
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Zelezik)+2.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13004447
Zelezik1.70
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite71% won 161 of 226
Up 2–0, closes it96% 97 of 101
Up 1–0, closes it83% 131 of 158
Kwiatkowski2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As underdog38% won 69 of 182
Down 0–1, comes back22% 24 of 109
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 68
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZelezik9wins
AwayKwiatkowski1wins
1 of 10 to a deciderZelezik leads 9–1, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZelezik100%4 of 4
AwayKwiatkowski16.7%1 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zelezik4Kwiatkowski6n = 10Kwiatkowski took 6 of 10
S2Zelezik7Kwiatkowski3n = 10Zelezik took 7 of 10
S3Zelezik8Kwiatkowski2n = 10Zelezik took 8 of 10
S4Zelezik7Kwiatkowski0n = 7Zelezik took 7 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home660%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricZelezikKwiatkowskiZ − KBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.932.6+6.3per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZelezikKwiatkowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime329 / 613 vs 104 / 23953.7%43.5%329 / 613 vs 104 / 239Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.036.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZelezikZelezik 1.70/Kwiatkowski 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.1%
Zelezik · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kwiatkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 25 · 19:55J. Zelezik4291111113K. Kwiatkowski28113771
WAug 19 · 22:35J. Zelezik3811311133K. Kwiatkowski305113111
LAug 19 · 15:00J. Zelezik142840K. Kwiatkowski331111113
WAug 18 · 23:30J. Zelezik4471111153K. Kwiatkowski401188131
WAug 18 · 19:10J. Zelezik3961111113K. Kwiatkowski33116791
WJul 30 · 21:00J. Zelezik341112113K. Kwiatkowski2371060
WJul 30 · 16:35J. Zelezik52111812113K. Kwiatkowski4813161091
WJul 26 · 23:20J. Zelezik4611911153K. Kwiatkowski302114131
WJul 26 · 17:20J. Zelezik341211113K. Kwiatkowski2310670
WJul 5 · 23:45J. Zelezik46611711113K. Kwiatkowski3811411482
J. Zelezik10
WSep 11 · 04:40M. Guzik1.5831110111J. Zelezik2.2411812133WSep 11 · 03:55M. Machelski2.75131110101J. Zelezik1.3715612123LSep 11 · 01:55H. Tkaczyk1.561111113J. Zelezik2.197980WSep 11 · 01:10J. Michalik1.9011712972J. Zelezik1.805111011113WSep 10 · 23:30W. Stechly4.706840J. Zelezik1.131111113WSep 10 · 22:40M. Guzik1.387890J. Zelezik2.651111113LSep 10 · 21:55M. Machelski2.501112113J. Zelezik1.4781070LSep 10 · 19:55H. Tkaczyk1.5510111111113J. Zelezik2.1912137552LSep 10 · 19:10D. Molenda1.2811711113J. Zelezik3.15611591WSep 10 · 17:30J. Michalik2.101778121J. Zelezik1.60151111143
K. Kwiatkowski10
WAug 26 · 04:40M. Baran2.6541070K. Kwiatkowski1.411112113WAug 26 · 03:55A. Krezel2.655990K. Kwiatkowski1.401111113WAug 26 · 01:10M. Brunner2.9510590K. Kwiatkowski1.341211113WAug 25 · 23:30J. Michalik2.263750K. Kwiatkowski1.541111113LAug 25 · 22:40M. Baran2.3041111113K. Kwiatkowski1.55115981WAug 25 · 21:55A. Krezel2.40116111052K. Kwiatkowski1.50811612113LAug 25 · 19:55J. Zelezik1.8591111113K. Kwiatkowski1.80113771WAug 25 · 19:10D. Molenda1.30551121K. Kwiatkowski3.1511116113WAug 25 · 17:30M. Brunner2.55911671K. Kwiatkowski1.4311511113WAug 25 · 01:30K. Kwiatkowski1.6111811113M. Karpiuk2.20811491
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