TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13004458
Played Aug 25Finished
Dariusz Molenda
Home
1.30
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
511511116211––
Kacper Kwiatkowski
Away
3.15
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:12 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDariusz Molenda to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
62 points played in total.
Set by set
511511116211––
H2H Dariusz Molenda 2–0 Kacper Kwiatkowski Kacper Kwiatkowski has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:12What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (71%)
Molenda
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Molenda 1607 vs Kwiatkowski 1531
Molenda
Wrong
both rated, 76 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Molenda 100% vs Kwiatkowski 80%
Molenda
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Molenda 70% vs Kwiatkowski 80%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Molenda +5 · Kwiatkowski +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Molenda) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kwiatkowski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (32%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMolenda 1.30 / Kwiatkowski 3.15
Signal prob.73% / 27%
Edge (Molenda)+2.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13004458
Molenda1.30
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite81% won 117 of 145
Up 2–0, closes it97% 76 of 78
Up 1–0, closes it92% 99 of 108
Kwiatkowski3.15
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog38% won 69 of 182
Down 0–1, comes back22% 24 of 109
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 68
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeMolenda2wins
AwayKwiatkowski0wins
Molenda leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home2
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricMolendaKwiatkowskiM − KBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match33.517.5+16.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMolendaKwiatkowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime197 / 250 vs 100 / 23378.8%42.9%197 / 250 vs 100 / 233Avg sets wonper match2.61.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.236.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MolendaMolenda 1.30/Kwiatkowski 3.15
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
72.8%
Molenda · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kwiatkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WAug 11 · 18:20D. Molenda331111113K. Kwiatkowski162950
WJul 14 · 22:20D. Molenda341211113K. Kwiatkowski1910360
D. Molenda10
WSep 10 · 22:20H. Tkaczyk2.205840D. Molenda1.571111113WSep 10 · 21:30J. Michalik3.50131260D. Molenda1.251514113WSep 10 · 20:45D. Molenda1.1011811113M. Machelski5.20511261WSep 10 · 19:10D. Molenda1.2811711113J. Zelezik3.15611591WSep 10 · 18:20M. Guzik2.106650D. Molenda1.601111113LSep 3 · 22:20J. Zelezik3.151311133D. Molenda1.30116110WSep 3 · 21:30M. Wolny4.557550D. Molenda1.151111113WSep 3 · 20:45D. Molenda1.051111113A. Staniczek7.109850LSep 3 · 19:10D. Molenda1.1761111572J. Skorupa4.30118711113WSep 3 · 18:20Z. Nocun4.0013670D. Molenda1.211511113
K. Kwiatkowski10
WAug 26 · 04:40M. Baran2.6541070K. Kwiatkowski1.411112113WAug 26 · 03:55A. Krezel2.655990K. Kwiatkowski1.401111113WAug 26 · 01:55J. Zelezik1.709970K. Kwiatkowski2.001111113WAug 26 · 01:10M. Brunner2.9510590K. Kwiatkowski1.341211113WAug 25 · 23:30J. Michalik2.263750K. Kwiatkowski1.541111113LAug 25 · 22:40M. Baran2.3041111113K. Kwiatkowski1.55115981WAug 25 · 21:55A. Krezel2.40116111052K. Kwiatkowski1.50811612113LAug 25 · 19:55J. Zelezik1.8591111113K. Kwiatkowski1.80113771WAug 25 · 17:30M. Brunner2.55911671K. Kwiatkowski1.4311511113WAug 25 · 01:30K. Kwiatkowski1.6111811113M. Karpiuk2.20811491
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