TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13003775
Played Aug 25Finished
Andrzej Krezel
Home
2.40
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1186111161012511
Kacper Kwiatkowski
Away
1.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:45 and never touched — 59.0% is still 59.0%
Graded at full timeKacper Kwiatkowski to win
59.0%
59.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
91 points played in total.
Set by set
1186111161012511
H2H Andrzej Krezel 1–1 Kacper Kwiatkowski Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:45What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (62%)
Kwiatkowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Krezel 1367 vs Kwiatkowski 1534
Kwiatkowski
Correct
both rated, 167 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krezel 20% vs Kwiatkowski 80%
Kwiatkowski
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krezel 20% vs Kwiatkowski 80%
Kwiatkowski
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Krezel -3 · Kwiatkowski -1
Krezel
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Kwiatkowski) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kwiatkowski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrezel 2.40 / Kwiatkowski 1.50
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Kwiatkowski)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13003775
Krezel2.40
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog26% won 33 of 125
Down 0–1, comes back8% 6 of 74
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 47
Kwiatkowski1.50
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite64% won 28 of 44
Up 2–0, closes it100% 10 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it81% 21 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeKrezel1wins
AwayKwiatkowski1wins
Level at 1–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricKrezelKwiatkowskiKrezel − KwiatkowskiBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match33.534.0−0.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrezelKwiatkowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime42 / 164 vs 101 / 23525.6%43%42 / 164 vs 101 / 235Avg sets wonper match1.41.8per matchAvg pointsper match34.336.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KwiatkowskiKrezel 2.40/Kwiatkowski 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.3%
Kwiatkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kwiatkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LAug 24 · 22:50A. Krezel257990K. Kwiatkowski331111113
WAug 24 · 16:55A. Krezel4211811123K. Kwiatkowski357117101
A. Krezel10
WSep 9 · 05:05H. Tkaczyk1.36111171082A. Krezel3.00961112113WSep 9 · 03:55A. Krezel1.241111123A. Barton3.4044100LSep 9 · 02:45M. Brunner1.7771111113A. Krezel1.87118891WSep 9 · 01:30K. Delikatny1.698570A. Krezel1.961111113WSep 8 · 23:55M. Machelski1.96115118122A. Krezel1.69211711143WSep 8 · 23:05M. Brunner1.801111921A. Krezel1.9071311113WSep 8 · 21:55A. Krezel1.2411911113A. Barton3.40411581LSep 8 · 20:45H. Tkaczyk1.3611118113A. Krezel2.95441181WSep 8 · 19:30K. Delikatny1.80133381A. Krezel1.85111111113LSep 8 · 17:55J. Michalik1.833111011113A. Krezel1.8711412962
K. Kwiatkowski10
WAug 26 · 04:40M. Baran2.6541070K. Kwiatkowski1.411112113WAug 26 · 03:55A. Krezel2.655990K. Kwiatkowski1.401111113WAug 26 · 01:55J. Zelezik1.709970K. Kwiatkowski2.001111113WAug 26 · 01:10M. Brunner2.9510590K. Kwiatkowski1.341211113WAug 25 · 23:30J. Michalik2.263750K. Kwiatkowski1.541111113LAug 25 · 22:40M. Baran2.3041111113K. Kwiatkowski1.55115981LAug 25 · 19:55J. Zelezik1.8591111113K. Kwiatkowski1.80113771WAug 25 · 19:10D. Molenda1.30551121K. Kwiatkowski3.1511116113WAug 25 · 17:30M. Brunner2.55911671K. Kwiatkowski1.4311511113WAug 25 · 01:30K. Kwiatkowski1.6111811113M. Karpiuk2.20811491
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