TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13004446
Played Aug 26Finished
Mateusz Baran
Home
2.65
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
4111012711––––
Kacper Kwiatkowski
Away
1.41
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:09 and never touched — 55.3% is still 55.3%
Graded at full timeKacper Kwiatkowski to win
55.3%
55.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
55 points played in total.
Set by set
4111012711––––
H2H Mateusz Baran 1–1 Kacper Kwiatkowski Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:09What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.41 (65%)
Kwiatkowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Baran 1414 vs Kwiatkowski 1570
Kwiatkowski
Correct
both rated, 156 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Baran 40% vs Kwiatkowski 80%
Kwiatkowski
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Baran 50% vs Kwiatkowski 80%
Kwiatkowski
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Baran -2 · Kwiatkowski +4
Kwiatkowski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Kwiatkowski) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBaran 2.65 / Kwiatkowski 1.41
Signal prob.32% / 68%
Edge (Kwiatkowski)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13004446
Baran2.65
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog46% won 15 of 33
Down 0–1, comes back35% 8 of 23
Down 0–2, comes back13% 2 of 15
Kwiatkowski1.41
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite64% won 32 of 50
Up 2–0, closes it100% 12 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it77% 24 of 31
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeBaran1wins
AwayKwiatkowski1wins
Level at 1–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricBaranKwiatkowskiB − KBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match29.033.5−4.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBaranKwiatkowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime46 / 80 vs 107 / 24257.5%44.2%46 / 80 vs 107 / 242Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match39.836.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KwiatkowskiBaran 2.65/Kwiatkowski 1.41
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.1%
Kwiatkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kwiatkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LAug 26 · 04:40M. Baran2141070K. Kwiatkowski341112113
WAug 25 · 22:40M. Baran3741111113K. Kwiatkowski33115981
M. Baran10
WSep 11 · 02:35M. Baran1.501111113A. Staniczek2.506590WSep 11 · 01:00M. Baran1.831111113K. Gudzik1.836860LSep 10 · 23:45M. Baran2.106560Z. Nocun1.671111113LSep 10 · 22:10M. Baran1.915990J. Cyndera1.801111113LSep 10 · 21:00M. Baran1.805640M. Lewczuk1.911111113WSep 10 · 19:40J. Cyndera1.831013981M. Baran1.83121111113LSep 10 · 18:55K. Gudzik1.91611711113M. Baran1.8011511982LSep 10 · 18:10M. Baran1.508101141A. Staniczek2.5011127113LSep 10 · 16:35M. Baran1.8089111492M. Lewczuk1.911111512113WSep 10 · 15:50Z. Nocun1.6781111862M. Baran2.10117811113
K. Kwiatkowski10
WAug 26 · 03:55A. Krezel2.655990K. Kwiatkowski1.401111113WAug 26 · 01:55J. Zelezik1.709970K. Kwiatkowski2.001111113WAug 26 · 01:10M. Brunner2.9510590K. Kwiatkowski1.341211113WAug 25 · 23:30J. Michalik2.263750K. Kwiatkowski1.541111113LAug 25 · 22:40M. Baran2.3041111113K. Kwiatkowski1.55115981WAug 25 · 21:55A. Krezel2.40116111052K. Kwiatkowski1.50811612113LAug 25 · 19:55J. Zelezik1.8591111113K. Kwiatkowski1.80113771WAug 25 · 19:10D. Molenda1.30551121K. Kwiatkowski3.1511116113WAug 25 · 17:30M. Brunner2.55911671K. Kwiatkowski1.4311511113WAug 25 · 01:30K. Kwiatkowski1.6111811113M. Karpiuk2.20811491
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