TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13105074
Played Sep 10Finished
Zbigniew Nocun
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
811117118811611
Mateusz Baran
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:01 and never touched — 58.2% is still 58.2%
Graded at full timeMateusz Baran to win
58.2%
58.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingZbigniew Nocun above · Mateusz Baran below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 92 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Mateusz Baran at 58.2%
92 points played in total.
H2H Zbigniew Nocun 3–1 Mateusz Baran Mateusz Baran has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:01What took a side0 for · 4 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Nocun
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Nocun
Wrong
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nocun 1423 vs Baran 1392
Nocun
Wrong
both rated, 31 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nocun 60% vs Baran 40%
Nocun
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nocun 60% vs Baran 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Nocun -2 · Baran +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Nocun) · live re-read · sealed at 42% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNocun 1.67 / Baran 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Nocun)+0.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13105074
Nocun1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite67% won 323 of 486
Up 2–0, closes it95% 157 of 166
Up 1–0, closes it86% 232 of 270
Baran2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog43% won 22 of 51
Down 0–1, comes back31% 10 of 32
Down 0–2, comes back10% 2 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeNocun3wins
AwayBaran1wins
2 of 4 to a deciderNocun leads 3–1, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nocun2Baran2n = 4split evenly
S2Nocun3Baran1n = 4Nocun took 3 of 4
S3Nocun4Baran0n = 4Nocun took 4 of 4
S4Nocun1Baran2n = 3Baran took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricNocunBaranN − BBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match44.838.0+6.8per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNocunBaranBasisWin rate · lifetime656 / 1097 vs 62 / 11159.8%55.9%656 / 1097 vs 62 / 111Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.540.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NocunNocun 1.67/Baran 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.6%
Nocun · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Baran won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WAug 6 · 21:45Z. Nocun—1111113M. Baran—3770
WAug 6 · 17:45Z. Nocun—71111123M. Baran—1155101
WAug 2 · 23:45Z. Nocun—1011169113M. Baran—126141192
LAug 2 · 15:50Z. Nocun—12811982M. Baran—1011911113
Z. Nocun10
WSep 11 · 02:10Z. Nocun1.6711911113M. Lewczuk2.10911581WSep 11 · 24:35J. Cyndera1.9111561192Z. Nocun1.80611119113WSep 10 · 23:45M. Baran2.106560Z. Nocun1.671111113LSep 10 · 22:55Z. Nocun1.36117811112A. Staniczek3.00811112133WSep 10 · 21:45Z. Nocun1.80132126153K. Gudzik1.9111111011132LSep 10 · 20:05Z. Nocun1.73413110M. Lewczuk2.001115133LSep 10 · 18:30J. Cyndera2.101111113Z. Nocun1.679850LSep 10 · 17:45K. Gudzik1.9111711113Z. Nocun1.80611571WSep 10 · 16:55Z. Nocun1.401111113A. Staniczek2.759680LSep 10 · 04:20Z. Nocun1.6410870J. Skorupa2.041211113
M. Baran10
WSep 11 · 02:35M. Baran1.501111113A. Staniczek2.506590WSep 11 · 01:00M. Baran1.831111113K. Gudzik1.836860LSep 10 · 23:45M. Baran2.106560Z. Nocun1.671111113LSep 10 · 22:10M. Baran1.915990J. Cyndera1.801111113LSep 10 · 21:00M. Baran1.805640M. Lewczuk1.911111113WSep 10 · 19:40J. Cyndera1.831013981M. Baran1.83121111113LSep 10 · 18:55K. Gudzik1.91611711113M. Baran1.8011511982LSep 10 · 18:10M. Baran1.508101141A. Staniczek2.5011127113LSep 10 · 16:35M. Baran1.8089111492M. Lewczuk1.911111512113WSep 10 · 02:10M. Baran2.171312123A. Zmijewski1.571110100
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