TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13104850
Played Sep 11Finished
Zbigniew Nocun
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119911115118––
Miroslaw Lewczuk
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:07 and never touched — 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timeZbigniew Nocun to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingZbigniew Nocun above · Miroslaw Lewczuk below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 75 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Zbigniew Nocun at 58.1%
75 points played in total.
H2H Zbigniew Nocun 35–17 Miroslaw Lewczuk Miroslaw Lewczuk has won 17 of their 52 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Lewczuk beat Nocun 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:07What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Nocun
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
35-17 in 52
Nocun
Correct
gap of 18 in 52, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nocun 1399 vs Lewczuk 1507
Lewczuk
Wrong
both rated, 109 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nocun 60% vs Lewczuk 80%
Lewczuk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nocun 40% vs Lewczuk 80%
Lewczuk
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Nocun +2 · Lewczuk +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Nocun) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lewczuk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNocun 1.67 / Lewczuk 2.10
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Nocun)-1.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13104850
Nocun1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite67% won 323 of 486
Up 2–0, closes it95% 157 of 166
Up 1–0, closes it86% 232 of 270
Lewczuk2.10
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog34% won 64 of 191
Down 0–1, comes back18% 21 of 119
Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 75
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNocun7wins
AwayLewczuk3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderNocun leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNocun83.3%5 of 6
AwayLewczuk50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nocun6Lewczuk4n = 10Nocun took 6 of 10
S2Nocun6Lewczuk4n = 10Nocun took 6 of 10
S3Nocun7Lewczuk3n = 10Nocun took 7 of 10
S4Nocun3Lewczuk4n = 7Lewczuk took 4 of 7
S5Nocun3Lewczuk2n = 5Nocun took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricNocunLewczukN − LBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.235.9+5.3per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNocunLewczukBasisWin rate · lifetime661 / 1107 vs 494 / 95859.7%51.6%661 / 1107 vs 494 / 958Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.436.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NocunNocun 1.67/Lewczuk 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.8%
Nocun · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Nocun won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 11 · 02:10Z. Nocun—11911113M. Lewczuk—911581
LSep 10 · 20:05Z. Nocun—413110M. Lewczuk—1115133
LSep 7 · 24:35Z. Nocun—11671192M. Lewczuk—511113113
WSep 6 · 18:30Z. Nocun—1111113M. Lewczuk—9370
LSep 1 · 24:30Z. Nocun—71111582M. Lewczuk—118711113
WAug 31 · 18:55Z. Nocun—1111113M. Lewczuk—2650
WJun 18 · 01:30Z. Nocun—711117113M. Lewczuk—11661172
WJun 17 · 19:30Z. Nocun—131129113M. Lewczuk—119111142
WMay 6 · 03:30Z. Nocun—9111111113M. Lewczuk—11461372
WMay 5 · 21:55Z. Nocun—111111113M. Lewczuk—813891
Z. Nocun10
WSep 11 · 24:35J. Cyndera1.9111561192Z. Nocun1.80611119113WSep 10 · 23:45M. Baran2.106560Z. Nocun1.671111113LSep 10 · 22:55Z. Nocun1.36117811112A. Staniczek3.00811112133WSep 10 · 21:45Z. Nocun1.80132126153K. Gudzik1.9111111011132LSep 10 · 20:05Z. Nocun1.73413110M. Lewczuk2.001115133LSep 10 · 18:30J. Cyndera2.101111113Z. Nocun1.679850LSep 10 · 17:45K. Gudzik1.9111711113Z. Nocun1.80611571WSep 10 · 16:55Z. Nocun1.401111113A. Staniczek2.759680LSep 10 · 15:50Z. Nocun1.6781111862M. Baran2.10117811113LSep 10 · 04:20Z. Nocun1.6410870J. Skorupa2.041211113
M. Lewczuk10
WSep 11 · 01:25A. Staniczek3.755540M. Lewczuk1.251111113WSep 10 · 23:20J. Cyndera1.918630M. Lewczuk1.801111113LSep 10 · 22:35K. Gudzik2.63412116113M. Lewczuk1.44111091152WSep 10 · 21:00M. Baran1.805640M. Lewczuk1.911111113WSep 10 · 20:05Z. Nocun1.73413110M. Lewczuk2.001115133WSep 10 · 19:20A. Staniczek3.50612851M. Lewczuk1.28111011113LSep 10 · 17:20J. Cyndera1.7311612113M. Lewczuk2.006111041WSep 10 · 16:35M. Baran1.8089111492M. Lewczuk1.911111512113WSep 10 · 15:00K. Gudzik2.638770M. Lewczuk1.441111113WSep 10 · 01:45K. Delikatny1.9111118572M. Lewczuk1.80961111113
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