TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13105069
Played Sep 10Finished
Mateusz Baran
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611511611––––
Zbigniew Nocun
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:00 and never touched — 58.2% is still 58.2%
Graded at full timeMateusz Baran to win
58.2%
58.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMateusz Baran above · Zbigniew Nocun below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 50 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Mateusz Baran at 58.2%
50 points played in total.
H2H Mateusz Baran 2–4 Zbigniew Nocun Mateusz Baran has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 8h before this match
Baran beat Nocun 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:00What took a side0 for · 3 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Nocun
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-4 in 6
Nocun
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Baran 1341 vs Nocun 1388
Nocun
Correct
both rated, 48 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Baran 20% vs Nocun 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Baran 30% vs Nocun 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Baran -2 · Nocun -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Nocun) · live re-read · sealed at 42% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nocun form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBaran 2.10 / Nocun 1.67
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Nocun)+2.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13105069
Baran2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 22 of 51
Down 0–1, comes back31% 10 of 32
Down 0–2, comes back10% 2 of 21
Nocun1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite67% won 323 of 486
Up 2–0, closes it95% 157 of 166
Up 1–0, closes it86% 232 of 270
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeBaran2wins
AwayNocun4wins
3 of 6 to a deciderNocun leads 4–2, and 3 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBaran33.3%1 of 3
AwayNocun66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Baran3Nocun3n = 6split evenly
S2Baran1Nocun5n = 6Nocun took 5 of 6
S3Baran0Nocun6n = 6Nocun took 6 of 6
S4Baran3Nocun1n = 4Baran took 3 of 4
S5Baran2Nocun1n = 3Baran took 2 of 3
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home233%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away233%
These 6 meetings
MetricBaranNocunB − NBasisWins24−2in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match36.242.7−6.5per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBaranNocunBasisWin rate · lifetime64 / 119 vs 659 / 110553.8%59.6%64 / 119 vs 659 / 1105Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.738.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NocunBaran 2.10/Nocun 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.8%
Nocun · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Nocun won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LSep 10 · 23:45M. Baran—6560Z. Nocun—1111113
WSep 10 · 15:50M. Baran—117811113Z. Nocun—81111862
LAug 6 · 21:45M. Baran—3770Z. Nocun—1111113
LAug 6 · 17:45M. Baran—1155101Z. Nocun—71111123
LAug 2 · 23:45M. Baran—126141192Z. Nocun—1011169113
WAug 2 · 15:50M. Baran—1011911113Z. Nocun—12811982
M. Baran10
LSep 10 · 22:10M. Baran1.915990J. Cyndera1.801111113LSep 10 · 21:00M. Baran1.805640M. Lewczuk1.911111113WSep 10 · 19:40J. Cyndera1.831013981M. Baran1.83121111113LSep 10 · 18:55K. Gudzik1.91611711113M. Baran1.8011511982LSep 10 · 18:10M. Baran1.508101141A. Staniczek2.5011127113LSep 10 · 16:35M. Baran1.8089111492M. Lewczuk1.911111512113WSep 10 · 15:50Z. Nocun1.6781111862M. Baran2.10117811113WSep 10 · 02:10M. Baran2.171312123A. Zmijewski1.571110100LSep 10 · 24:35K. Delikatny2.201111113M. Baran1.618730LSep 9 · 23:45A. Barton3.25101111163M. Baran1.331287141
Z. Nocun10
LSep 10 · 22:55Z. Nocun1.36117811112A. Staniczek3.00811112133WSep 10 · 21:45Z. Nocun1.80132126153K. Gudzik1.9111111011132LSep 10 · 20:05Z. Nocun1.73413110M. Lewczuk2.001115133LSep 10 · 18:30J. Cyndera2.101111113Z. Nocun1.679850LSep 10 · 17:45K. Gudzik1.9111711113Z. Nocun1.80611571WSep 10 · 16:55Z. Nocun1.401111113A. Staniczek2.759680LSep 10 · 15:50Z. Nocun1.6781111862M. Baran2.10117811113LSep 10 · 04:20Z. Nocun1.6410870J. Skorupa2.041211113LSep 10 · 03:00W. Stechly5.0581111113Z. Nocun1.11117591WSep 10 · 02:20A. Staniczek2.85881112102Z. Nocun1.341111310123
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