TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13104855
Played Sep 10Finished
Zbigniew Nocun
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
41113151113––––
Miroslaw Lewczuk
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:09 and never touched — 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timeZbigniew Nocun to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingZbigniew Nocun above · Miroslaw Lewczuk below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 13-15
Set 3 · 11-13
Point 67 set 3, 11-13 — our read held Zbigniew Nocun at 58.1%
67 points played in total.
H2H Zbigniew Nocun 34–15 Miroslaw Lewczuk Miroslaw Lewczuk has won 15 of their 49 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:09What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Nocun
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
34-15 in 49
Nocun
Wrong
gap of 19 in 49, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nocun 1382 vs Lewczuk 1469
Lewczuk
Correct
both rated, 87 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nocun 20% vs Lewczuk 80%
Lewczuk
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nocun 50% vs Lewczuk 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Nocun -2 · Lewczuk +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Nocun) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lewczuk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNocun 1.73 / Lewczuk 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Nocun)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13104855
Nocun1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite67% won 323 of 486
Up 2–0, closes it95% 157 of 166
Up 1–0, closes it86% 232 of 270
Lewczuk2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog34% won 64 of 191
Down 0–1, comes back18% 21 of 119
Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 75
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNocun9wins
AwayLewczuk1wins
5 of 10 to a deciderNocun leads 9–1, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNocun100%5 of 5
AwayLewczuk20%1 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nocun5Lewczuk5n = 10split evenly
S2Nocun9Lewczuk1n = 10Nocun took 9 of 10
S3Nocun8Lewczuk2n = 10Nocun took 8 of 10
S4Nocun3Lewczuk4n = 7Lewczuk took 4 of 7
S5Nocun4Lewczuk1n = 5Nocun took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricNocunLewczukN − LBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.633.4+8.2per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNocunLewczukBasisWin rate · lifetime657 / 1101 vs 491 / 95859.7%51.3%657 / 1101 vs 491 / 958Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.436.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NocunNocun 1.73/Lewczuk 2.00
Miss
What we said
54.9%
Nocun · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Lewczuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 6 · 18:30Z. Nocun—1111113M. Lewczuk—9370
LSep 1 · 24:30Z. Nocun—71111582M. Lewczuk—118711113
WAug 31 · 18:55Z. Nocun—1111113M. Lewczuk—2650
WJun 18 · 01:30Z. Nocun—711117113M. Lewczuk—11661172
WJun 17 · 19:30Z. Nocun—131129113M. Lewczuk—119111142
WMay 6 · 03:30Z. Nocun—9111111113M. Lewczuk—11461372
WMay 5 · 21:55Z. Nocun—111111113M. Lewczuk—813891
WMar 21 · 22:10Z. Nocun—1111113M. Lewczuk—3870
WMar 21 · 17:50Z. Nocun—511811113M. Lewczuk—11711852
WJan 1 · 05:40Z. Nocun—61111113M. Lewczuk—115571
Z. Nocun10
LSep 10 · 18:30J. Cyndera2.101111113Z. Nocun1.679850LSep 10 · 17:45K. Gudzik1.9111711113Z. Nocun1.80611571WSep 10 · 16:55Z. Nocun1.401111113A. Staniczek2.759680LSep 10 · 15:50Z. Nocun1.6781111862M. Baran2.10117811113LSep 10 · 04:20Z. Nocun1.6410870J. Skorupa2.041211113LSep 10 · 03:00W. Stechly5.0581111113Z. Nocun1.11117591WSep 10 · 02:20A. Staniczek2.85881112102Z. Nocun1.341111310123WSep 10 · 01:30Z. Nocun1.85911911113K. Gudzik1.8011311792WSep 10 · 24:20Z. Nocun2.15116811113M. Warzecha1.6191111682WSep 9 · 22:40Z. Nocun1.66111110113J. Skorupa2.05891281
M. Lewczuk10
WSep 10 · 19:20A. Staniczek3.50612851M. Lewczuk1.28111011113LSep 10 · 17:20J. Cyndera1.7311612113M. Lewczuk2.006111041WSep 10 · 16:35M. Baran1.8089111492M. Lewczuk1.911111512113WSep 10 · 15:00K. Gudzik2.638770M. Lewczuk1.441111113WSep 10 · 01:45K. Delikatny1.9111118572M. Lewczuk1.80961111113WSep 10 · 01:00A. Barton7.509420M. Lewczuk1.071111113LSep 10 · 24:10M. Lewczuk2.003590A. Fomin1.731111113WSep 9 · 22:35M. Lewczuk2.10113711113A. Zmijewski1.6781111392LSep 9 · 21:45M. Baran1.8611811133M. Lewczuk1.801119111LSep 9 · 20:30M. Lewczuk2.0011810121A. Fomin1.7391112143
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