TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13103468
Played Sep 9Finished
Mateusz Baran
Home
1.86
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1118111191311––
Miroslaw Lewczuk
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:28 and never touched — 58.2% is still 58.2%
Graded at full timeMateusz Baran to win
58.2%
58.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMateusz Baran above · Miroslaw Lewczuk below
Set 1 · 11-1
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 13-11
Point 75 set 4, 13-11 — our read held Mateusz Baran at 58.2%
75 points played in total.
H2H Mateusz Baran 1–0 Miroslaw Lewczuk Miroslaw Lewczuk has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Baran beat Lewczuk 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:28What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Lewczuk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Baran 1408 vs Lewczuk 1458
Lewczuk
Wrong
both rated, 50 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Baran 60% vs Lewczuk 40%
Baran
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Baran 50% vs Lewczuk 30%
Baran
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Baran -1 · Lewczuk -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Lewczuk) · live re-read · sealed at 42% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lewczuk form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBaran 1.86 / Lewczuk 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Lewczuk)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13103468
Baran1.86
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog40% won 18 of 45
Down 0–1, comes back31% 9 of 29
Down 0–2, comes back11% 2 of 19
Lewczuk1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite69% won 168 of 242
Up 2–0, closes it95% 103 of 108
Up 1–0, closes it84% 124 of 148
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeBaran1wins
AwayLewczuk0wins
1 of 1 to a deciderBaran leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricBaranLewczukB − LBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match49.045.0+4.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBaranLewczukBasisWin rate · lifetime60 / 106 vs 492 / 95856.6%51.4%60 / 106 vs 492 / 958Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.436.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LewczukBaran 1.86/Lewczuk 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Lewczuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Baran won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WSep 9 · 17:45M. Baran—911711113M. Lewczuk—11811962
M. Baran10
LSep 9 · 20:05M. Baran2.205711121A. Zmijewski1.6111115143WSep 9 · 18:30K. Delikatny2.001110151M. Baran1.7381211113WSep 9 · 17:45M. Lewczuk1.7311811962M. Baran2.00911711113WSep 9 · 16:55M. Baran2.00114118123A. Fomin1.73711611102LSep 9 · 15:50M. Baran1.4496111142A. Skupinski2.63111189113WSep 1 · 02:20M. Machelski2.0511030M. Baran1.681112113WSep 1 · 01:35A. Staniczek1.9515135852M. Baran1.7513111111113LAug 31 · 23:35J. Cyndera1.74111110113M. Baran1.95981231LAug 31 · 22:50J. Zelezik1.5941111113M. Baran2.17115991LAug 31 · 21:15A. Barton3.4011311113M. Baran1.26711791
M. Lewczuk10
WSep 9 · 22:35M. Lewczuk2.10113711113A. Zmijewski1.6781111392LSep 9 · 20:30M. Lewczuk2.0011810121A. Fomin1.7391112143WSep 9 · 18:55M. Lewczuk1.251411113A. Skupinski3.7512990LSep 9 · 17:45M. Lewczuk1.7311811962M. Baran2.00911711113LSep 9 · 16:15M. Lewczuk1.836680K. Delikatny1.831111113WSep 9 · 15:00M. Lewczuk2.1011117113A. Zmijewski1.67871171LSep 8 · 01:10M. Lewczuk1.80681191A. Kubiak1.9111119113LSep 8 · 24:10M. Lewczuk2.0091080M. Krutak1.731112113WSep 7 · 23:10M. Lewczuk1.534101411113J. Skorupa2.38111212772LSep 7 · 22:10J. Zelezik1.73111147123M. Lewczuk2.00681111102
Upcoming Matches
M. Baran4 of 10 neutral
Sep 9 · 23:45M. Baran1.33A. Barton3.25—Sep 10 · 24:35M. Baran1.61K. Delikatny2.20—Sep 10 · 02:10M. Baran2.17A. Zmijewski1.57—Sep 10 · 15:50M. Baran—Z. Nocun——Sep 10 · 16:35M. Baran—M. Lewczuk——Sep 10 · 18:10M. Baran—A. Staniczek——Sep 10 · 18:55M. Baran—K. Gudzik——Sep 10 · 19:40M. Baran—J. Cyndera——Sep 10 · 21:00M. Baran—M. Lewczuk——Sep 10 · 22:10M. Baran—J. Cyndera——
M. Lewczuk
Sep 10 · 24:10M. Lewczuk2.00A. Fomin1.73—Sep 10 · 01:00M. Lewczuk1.07A. Barton7.50—Sep 10 · 01:45M. Lewczuk1.80K. Delikatny1.91—Sep 10 · 15:00M. Lewczuk—K. Gudzik——Sep 10 · 16:35M. Lewczuk—M. Baran——Sep 10 · 17:20M. Lewczuk—J. Cyndera——Sep 10 · 19:20M. Lewczuk—A. Staniczek——Sep 10 · 20:05M. Lewczuk—Z. Nocun——Sep 10 · 21:00M. Lewczuk—M. Baran——Sep 10 · 22:35M. Lewczuk—K. Gudzik——
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