TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13103059
Played Sep 9Finished
Mateusz Baran
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
5117111151214––
Artur Zmijewski
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:40 and never touched — 59.7% is still 59.7%
Graded at full timeArtur Zmijewski to win
59.7%
59.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMateusz Baran above · Artur Zmijewski below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 12-14
Point 76 set 4, 12-14 — our read held Artur Zmijewski at 59.7%
76 points played in total.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:40What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Zmijewski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Baran 1418 vs Zmijewski 1476
Zmijewski
Correct
both rated, 58 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Baran 80% vs Zmijewski 40%
Baran
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Baran 60% vs Zmijewski 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Baran +3 · Zmijewski -2
Baran
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Zmijewski) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zmijewski form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBaran 2.20 / Zmijewski 1.61
Signal prob.42% / 59%
Edge (Zmijewski)+0.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13103059
Baran2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 18 of 45
Down 0–1, comes back31% 9 of 29
Down 0–2, comes back11% 2 of 19
Zmijewski1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite70% won 50 of 71
Up 2–0, closes it100% 27 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it85% 35 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricBaranZmijewskiBasisWin rate · lifetime60 / 105 vs 67 / 11457.1%58.8%60 / 105 vs 67 / 114Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match40.438.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZmijewskiBaran 2.20/Zmijewski 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.5%
Zmijewski · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Zmijewski won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
M. Baran10
WSep 9 · 18:30K. Delikatny2.001110151M. Baran1.7381211113WSep 9 · 17:45M. Lewczuk1.7311811962M. Baran2.00911711113WSep 9 · 16:55M. Baran2.00114118123A. Fomin1.73711611102LSep 9 · 15:50M. Baran1.4496111142A. Skupinski2.63111189113WSep 1 · 02:20M. Machelski2.0511030M. Baran1.681112113WSep 1 · 01:35A. Staniczek1.9515135852M. Baran1.7513111111113LAug 31 · 23:35J. Cyndera1.74111110113M. Baran1.95981231LAug 31 · 22:50J. Zelezik1.5941111113M. Baran2.17115991LAug 31 · 21:15A. Barton3.4011311113M. Baran1.26711791WAug 31 · 19:50M. Machelski2.006990M. Baran1.701111113
A. Zmijewski10
LSep 9 · 19:20A. Fomin1.91115711113A. Zmijewski1.8091111792LSep 9 · 17:20K. Delikatny2.381115113A. Zmijewski1.5371390WSep 9 · 16:35A. Skupinski4.5011114882A. Zmijewski1.17981111113LSep 9 · 15:00M. Lewczuk2.1011117113A. Zmijewski1.67871171WSep 7 · 08:45A. Zmijewski1.451111113M. Wolny2.508480WSep 7 · 07:10A. Zmijewski1.4541111113M. Machelski2.50113841WSep 7 · 06:00A. Zmijewski1.091111117123W. Stechly5.90136711102LSep 7 · 04:25A. Zmijewski1.54111061282J. Slawomir2.354121110113WSep 7 · 03:10A. Zmijewski1.101111113A. Barton5.605560LSep 5 · 02:20A. Zmijewski2.4041311772J. Oracz1.501111811113
Upcoming Matches
M. Baran1 of 10 neutral
Sep 9 · 21:45M. Baran1.86M. Lewczuk1.80—Sep 9 · 22:55M. Baran2.10A. Fomin1.67—Sep 9 · 23:45M. Baran1.33A. Barton3.25—Sep 10 · 24:35M. Baran1.73K. Delikatny2.00—Sep 10 · 02:10M. Baran2.17A. Zmijewski1.57—Sep 10 · 15:50M. Baran—Z. Nocun——Sep 10 · 16:35M. Baran—M. Lewczuk——Sep 10 · 18:10M. Baran—A. Staniczek——Sep 10 · 18:55M. Baran—K. Gudzik——Sep 10 · 19:40M. Baran—J. Cyndera——
A. Zmijewski
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