TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13102561
Played Sep 9Finished
Mateusz Baran
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
911611118119411
Arkadiusz Skupinski
Away
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:21 and never touched — 61.2% is still 61.2%
Graded at full timeMateusz Baran to win
61.2%
61.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMateusz Baran above · Arkadiusz Skupinski below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 91 set 5, 4-11 — our read held Mateusz Baran at 61.2%
91 points played in total.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:21What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Baran
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Baran 1397 vs Skupinski 1206
Baran
Wrong
both rated, 192 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Baran 40% vs Skupinski 20%
Baran
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Baran 60% vs Skupinski 20%
Baran
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Baran +2 · Skupinski +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Baran) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skupinski form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBaran 1.44 / Skupinski 2.63
Signal prob.65% / 36%
Edge (Baran)-0.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13102561
Baran1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite70% won 38 of 54
Up 2–0, closes it100% 10 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it79% 23 of 29
Skupinski2.63
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog30% won 38 of 126
Down 0–1, comes back17% 13 of 76
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 50
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricBaranSkupinskiBasisWin rate · lifetime57 / 101 vs 159 / 40756.4%39.1%57 / 101 vs 159 / 407Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match40.235.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BaranBaran 1.44/Skupinski 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.5%
Baran · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Skupinski won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
M. Baran10
WSep 1 · 02:20M. Machelski2.0511030M. Baran1.681112113WSep 1 · 01:35A. Staniczek1.9515135852M. Baran1.7513111111113LAug 31 · 23:35J. Cyndera1.74111110113M. Baran1.95981231LAug 31 · 22:50J. Zelezik1.5941111113M. Baran2.17115991LAug 31 · 21:15A. Barton3.4011311113M. Baran1.26711791WAug 31 · 19:50M. Machelski2.006990M. Baran1.701111113WAug 31 · 18:30D. Maszczynski2.9511771162M. Baran1.33411115113LAug 31 · 16:50A. Staniczek1.9891111113M. Baran1.71119871WAug 31 · 15:30P. Gesiarz1.80111112972M. Baran1.907131011113WAug 31 · 15:10J. Cyndera1.9013611982M. Baran1.801111511113
A. Skupinski10
LSep 9 · 16:35A. Skupinski4.5011114882A. Zmijewski1.17981111113WSep 2 · 19:40A. Fomin1.22121181192A. Skupinski4.00145116113LSep 2 · 18:55M. Lewczuk1.3011116113A. Skupinski3.40931171LSep 2 · 18:10A. Skupinski4.33391141A. Zmijewski1.2011119113LSep 2 · 16:35A. Skupinski3.008101181A. Krezel1.3611128113LSep 2 · 15:50J. Zelezik1.14414811113A. Skupinski5.00111211382WAug 26 · 19:40Z. Nocun1.50911781A. Skupinski2.5011711113LAug 26 · 18:55J. Zelezik1.251111113A. Skupinski3.757380LAug 26 · 18:10A. Skupinski1.7310139101A. Krezel2.00121111123LAug 26 · 16:35A. Skupinski4.008980H. Tkaczyk1.221111113
Upcoming Matches
M. Baran1 of 10 neutral
Sep 9 · 17:45M. Baran2.00M. Lewczuk1.73—Sep 9 · 18:30M. Baran1.73K. Delikatny2.00—Sep 9 · 20:05M. Baran2.20A. Zmijewski1.61—Sep 9 · 21:45M. Baran1.86M. Lewczuk1.80—Sep 9 · 22:55M. Baran2.00A. Fomin1.73—Sep 9 · 23:45M. Baran1.36A. Barton3.00—Sep 10 · 24:35M. Baran1.73K. Delikatny2.00—Sep 10 · 02:10M. Baran2.17A. Zmijewski1.57—Sep 10 · 15:50M. Baran—Z. Nocun——Sep 10 · 16:35M. Baran—M. Lewczuk——
A. Skupinski
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