TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13018946
Played Aug 26Finished
Arkadiusz Skupinski
Home
4.00
At publish
Lost last 8Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 8
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811911811––––
Henryk Tkaczyk
Away
1.22
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:48 and never touched — 68.0% is still 68.0%
Graded at full timeHenryk Tkaczyk to win
68.0%
68.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingArkadiusz Skupinski above · Henryk Tkaczyk below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 58 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Henryk Tkaczyk at 68.0%
58 points played in total.
H2H Arkadiusz Skupinski 3–16 Henryk Tkaczyk Arkadiusz Skupinski has won 3 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:48What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.22 (77%)
Tkaczyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-16 in 19
Tkaczyk
Correct
gap of 13 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skupinski 1210 vs Tkaczyk 1545
Tkaczyk
Correct
both rated, 335 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skupinski 0% vs Tkaczyk 80%
Tkaczyk
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skupinski 10% vs Tkaczyk 80%
Tkaczyk
Correct
70pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Skupinski -5 · Tkaczyk +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 80% — Strong (leans Tkaczyk) · live re-read · sealed at 68% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skupinski form (0%) is below what odds imply (25%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkupinski 4.00 / Tkaczyk 1.22
Signal prob.20% / 80%
Edge (Tkaczyk)+3.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13018946
Skupinski4.00
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 8
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog32% won 39 of 123
Down 0–1, comes back19% 14 of 74
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 47
Tkaczyk1.22
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite68% won 358 of 529
Up 2–0, closes it94% 200 of 214
Up 1–0, closes it84% 272 of 324
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkupinski2wins
AwayTkaczyk8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderTkaczyk leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkupinskin = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayTkaczyk87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skupinski2Tkaczyk8n = 10Tkaczyk took 8 of 10
S2Skupinski4Tkaczyk6n = 10Tkaczyk took 6 of 10
S3Skupinski2Tkaczyk8n = 10Tkaczyk took 8 of 10
S4Skupinski2Tkaczyk2n = 4split evenly
S5Skupinski1Tkaczyk2n = 3Tkaczyk took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkupinskiTkaczykS − TBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match30.837.7−6.9per matchSweeps15−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkupinskiTkaczykBasisWin rate · lifetime158 / 402 vs 967 / 147139.3%65.7%158 / 402 vs 967 / 1471Avg sets wonper match1.82.4per matchAvg pointsper match35.838.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkaczykSkupinski 4.00/Tkaczyk 1.22
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
80.1%
Tkaczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Tkaczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 26 · 16:35A. Skupinski—8920H. Tkaczyk—111153
LJun 4 · 01:55A. Skupinski—101171232H. Tkaczyk—1271110113
LJun 3 · 19:55A. Skupinski—154135102H. Tkaczyk—13111111123
LMay 14 · 01:55A. Skupinski—9970H. Tkaczyk—1111113
WMay 13 · 19:55A. Skupinski—1111133H. Tkaczyk—75110
LMay 7 · 01:55A. Skupinski—91070H. Tkaczyk—1112113
WMay 6 · 19:55A. Skupinski—813511113H. Tkaczyk—111111382
LFeb 4 · 02:10A. Skupinski—6830H. Tkaczyk—1111113
LOct 9 · 04:40A. Skupinski—3450H. Tkaczyk—1111113
LOct 8 · 22:40A. Skupinski—1111951H. Tkaczyk—13611113
A. Skupinski10
LSep 9 · 16:35A. Skupinski4.5011114882A. Zmijewski1.17981111113WSep 9 · 15:50M. Baran1.4496111142A. Skupinski2.63111189113WSep 2 · 19:40A. Fomin1.22121181192A. Skupinski4.00145116113LSep 2 · 18:55M. Lewczuk1.3011116113A. Skupinski3.40931171LSep 2 · 18:10A. Skupinski4.33391141A. Zmijewski1.2011119113LSep 2 · 16:35A. Skupinski3.008101181A. Krezel1.3611128113LSep 2 · 15:50J. Zelezik1.14414811113A. Skupinski5.00111211382WAug 26 · 19:40Z. Nocun1.50911781A. Skupinski2.5011711113LAug 26 · 18:55J. Zelezik1.251111113A. Skupinski3.757380LAug 26 · 18:10A. Skupinski1.7310139101A. Krezel2.00121111123
H. Tkaczyk10
LSep 9 · 05:05H. Tkaczyk1.36111171082A. Krezel3.00961112113LSep 9 · 03:30H. Tkaczyk1.29461131M. Brunner3.1011118113LSep 9 · 02:20H. Tkaczyk1.328670K. Delikatny2.901111113WSep 9 · 24:45H. Tkaczyk1.221111113M. Machelski3.558640WSep 8 · 23:30H. Tkaczyk1.08111110113A. Barton6.43971281WSep 8 · 22:20J. Michalik2.857650H. Tkaczyk1.331111113WSep 8 · 21:30M. Brunner3.257117161H. Tkaczyk1.3011611183WSep 8 · 20:45H. Tkaczyk1.3611118113A. Krezel2.95441181WSep 8 · 19:10H. Tkaczyk1.0611811113A. Barton6.50711641WSep 8 · 18:20K. Delikatny3.0010650H. Tkaczyk1.331211113
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