TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13102555
Played Sep 9Finished
Arkadiusz Skupinski
Home
4.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
119118411811811
Artur Zmijewski
Away
1.17
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:19 and never touched — 70.0% is still 70.0%
Graded at full timeArtur Zmijewski to win
70.0%
70.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingArkadiusz Skupinski above · Artur Zmijewski below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 92 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Artur Zmijewski at 70.0%
92 points played in total.
H2H Arkadiusz Skupinski 0–2 Artur Zmijewski Arkadiusz Skupinski has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:19What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.17 (79%)
Zmijewski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-2 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Skupinski 1224 vs Zmijewski 1503
Zmijewski
Correct
both rated, 279 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skupinski 40% vs Zmijewski 60%
Zmijewski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skupinski 30% vs Zmijewski 70%
Zmijewski
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Skupinski +2 · Zmijewski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% — Strong (leans Zmijewski) · live re-read · sealed at 70% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zmijewski form (60%) is below what odds imply (86%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkupinski 4.50 / Zmijewski 1.17
Signal prob.21% / 79%
Edge (Zmijewski)-0.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13102555
Skupinski4.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog30% won 38 of 126
Down 0–1, comes back17% 13 of 76
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 50
Zmijewski1.17
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite70% won 50 of 71
Up 2–0, closes it100% 27 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it85% 35 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeSkupinski0wins
AwayZmijewski2wins
Zmijewski leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away2
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricSkupinskiZmijewskiS − ZBasisWins02−2in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match30.043.0−13.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkupinskiZmijewskiBasisWin rate · lifetime160 / 408 vs 66 / 11139.2%59.5%160 / 408 vs 66 / 111Avg sets wonper match1.82.2per matchAvg pointsper match35.838.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZmijewskiSkupinski 4.50/Zmijewski 1.17
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
79.4%
Zmijewski · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Zmijewski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LSep 2 · 18:10A. Skupinski—391141A. Zmijewski—11119113
LAug 19 · 18:10A. Skupinski—1221091A. Zmijewski—101112113
A. Skupinski10
WSep 9 · 15:50M. Baran1.4496111142A. Skupinski2.63111189113WSep 2 · 19:40A. Fomin1.22121181192A. Skupinski4.00145116113LSep 2 · 18:55M. Lewczuk1.3011116113A. Skupinski3.40931171LSep 2 · 18:10A. Skupinski4.33391141A. Zmijewski1.2011119113LSep 2 · 16:35A. Skupinski3.008101181A. Krezel1.3611128113LSep 2 · 15:50J. Zelezik1.14414811113A. Skupinski5.00111211382WAug 26 · 19:40Z. Nocun1.50911781A. Skupinski2.5011711113LAug 26 · 18:55J. Zelezik1.251111113A. Skupinski3.757380LAug 26 · 18:10A. Skupinski1.7310139101A. Krezel2.00121111123LAug 26 · 16:35A. Skupinski4.008980H. Tkaczyk1.221111113
A. Zmijewski10
LSep 9 · 15:00M. Lewczuk2.1011117113A. Zmijewski1.67871171WSep 7 · 08:45A. Zmijewski1.451111113M. Wolny2.508480WSep 7 · 07:10A. Zmijewski1.4541111113M. Machelski2.50113841WSep 7 · 06:00A. Zmijewski1.091111117123W. Stechly5.90136711102LSep 7 · 04:25A. Zmijewski1.54111061282J. Slawomir2.354121110113WSep 7 · 03:10A. Zmijewski1.101111113A. Barton5.605560LSep 5 · 02:20A. Zmijewski2.4041311772J. Oracz1.501111811113WSep 5 · 24:45M. Krutak2.70471191A. Zmijewski1.3911117113WSep 5 · 24:00D. Pyrek2.313450A. Zmijewski1.521111113WSep 2 · 18:10A. Skupinski4.33391141A. Zmijewski1.2011119113
Upcoming Matches
A. Skupinski
A. Zmijewski
Sep 9 · 17:20A. Zmijewski1.53K. Delikatny2.38—Sep 9 · 19:20A. Zmijewski1.80A. Fomin1.91—Sep 9 · 20:05A. Zmijewski1.61M. Baran2.20—Sep 9 · 21:00A. Zmijewski1.13A. Barton5.50—Sep 9 · 22:35A. Zmijewski1.67M. Lewczuk2.10—Sep 9 · 23:20A. Zmijewski1.38K. Delikatny2.65—Sep 10 · 01:25A. Zmijewski1.80A. Fomin1.91—Sep 10 · 02:10A. Zmijewski1.57M. Baran2.17—
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