TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13063784
Played Sep 2Finished
Miroslaw Lewczuk
Home
1.30
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119113611117––
Arkadiusz Skupinski
Away
3.40
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:22 and never touched — 66.7% is still 66.7%
Graded at full timeMiroslaw Lewczuk to win
66.7%
66.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMiroslaw Lewczuk above · Arkadiusz Skupinski below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 69 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Miroslaw Lewczuk at 66.7%
69 points played in total.
H2H Miroslaw Lewczuk 16–8 Arkadiusz Skupinski Arkadiusz Skupinski has won 8 of their 24 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:22What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Lewczuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-8 in 24
Lewczuk
Correct
gap of 8 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lewczuk 1460 vs Skupinski 1206
Lewczuk
Correct
both rated, 255 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lewczuk 40% vs Skupinski 20%
Lewczuk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lewczuk 50% vs Skupinski 10%
Lewczuk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lewczuk -3 · Skupinski -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 74% — Strong (leans Lewczuk) · live re-read · sealed at 67% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lewczuk form (40%) is below what odds imply (77%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLewczuk 1.30 / Skupinski 3.40
Signal prob.74% / 27%
Edge (Lewczuk)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13063784
Lewczuk1.30
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite70% won 165 of 236
Up 2–0, closes it95% 103 of 109
Up 1–0, closes it83% 124 of 149
Skupinski3.40
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog31% won 37 of 121
Down 0–1, comes back18% 13 of 73
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 47
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLewczuk6wins
AwaySkupinski4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLewczuk leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLewczuk66.7%4 of 6
AwaySkupinski50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lewczuk6Skupinski4n = 10Lewczuk took 6 of 10
S2Lewczuk5Skupinski5n = 10split evenly
S3Lewczuk7Skupinski3n = 10Lewczuk took 7 of 10
S4Lewczuk5Skupinski4n = 9Lewczuk took 5 of 9
S5Lewczuk2Skupinski3n = 5Skupinski took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricLewczukSkupinskiL − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.539.9+2.6per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLewczukSkupinskiBasisWin rate · lifetime500 / 959 vs 159 / 40752.1%39.1%500 / 959 vs 159 / 407Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.335.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LewczukLewczuk 1.30/Skupinski 3.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
73.5%
Lewczuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Lewczuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 2 · 18:55M. Lewczuk—11116113A. Skupinski—931171
WAug 19 · 19:40M. Lewczuk—811911113A. Skupinski—11311982
WJun 17 · 23:55M. Lewczuk—119117113A. Skupinski—51191132
WJun 17 · 17:55M. Lewczuk—11913113A. Skupinski—9111191
LNov 4 · 03:00M. Lewczuk—12211582A. Skupinski—1011711113
WSep 30 · 19:10M. Lewczuk—61111113A. Skupinski—119671
LSep 11 · 19:10M. Lewczuk—91111982A. Skupinski—118811113
LAug 14 · 03:05M. Lewczuk—11145121A. Skupinski—81611143
LAug 13 · 21:05M. Lewczuk—65111192A. Skupinski—111152113
WJul 10 · 21:30M. Lewczuk—1112113A. Skupinski—81090
M. Lewczuk10
LSep 9 · 16:15M. Lewczuk1.836680K. Delikatny1.831111113WSep 9 · 15:00M. Lewczuk2.1011117113A. Zmijewski1.67871171LSep 8 · 01:10M. Lewczuk1.80681191A. Kubiak1.9111119113LSep 8 · 24:10M. Lewczuk2.0091080M. Krutak1.731112113WSep 7 · 23:10M. Lewczuk1.534101411113J. Skorupa2.38111212772LSep 7 · 22:10J. Zelezik1.73111147123M. Lewczuk2.00681111102LSep 7 · 21:20M. Lewczuk3.006101181H. Tkaczyk1.3611124113WSep 7 · 19:40M. Lewczuk2.00591111113J. Zelezik1.7311119892LSep 7 · 18:30M. Lewczuk2.2091111932M. Krutak1.61117811113WSep 7 · 17:20M. Lewczuk1.57101111113J. Skorupa2.25128591
A. Skupinski10
LSep 9 · 16:35A. Skupinski4.5011114882A. Zmijewski1.17981111113WSep 9 · 15:50M. Baran1.4496111142A. Skupinski2.63111189113WSep 2 · 19:40A. Fomin1.22121181192A. Skupinski4.00145116113LSep 2 · 18:10A. Skupinski4.33391141A. Zmijewski1.2011119113LSep 2 · 16:35A. Skupinski3.008101181A. Krezel1.3611128113LSep 2 · 15:50J. Zelezik1.14414811113A. Skupinski5.00111211382WAug 26 · 19:40Z. Nocun1.50911781A. Skupinski2.5011711113LAug 26 · 18:55J. Zelezik1.251111113A. Skupinski3.757380LAug 26 · 18:10A. Skupinski1.7310139101A. Krezel2.00121111123LAug 26 · 16:35A. Skupinski4.008980H. Tkaczyk1.221111113
Upcoming Matches
M. Lewczuk1 of 10 neutral
Sep 9 · 17:45M. Lewczuk1.73M. Baran2.00—Sep 9 · 18:55M. Lewczuk1.25A. Skupinski3.75—Sep 9 · 20:30M. Lewczuk1.91A. Fomin1.80—Sep 9 · 21:45M. Lewczuk1.80M. Baran1.86—Sep 9 · 22:35M. Lewczuk2.10A. Zmijewski1.67—Sep 10 · 24:10M. Lewczuk1.91A. Fomin1.80—Sep 10 · 01:00M. Lewczuk1.07A. Barton7.50—Sep 10 · 01:45M. Lewczuk1.80K. Delikatny1.91—Sep 10 · 15:00M. Lewczuk—K. Gudzik——Sep 10 · 16:35M. Lewczuk—M. Baran——
A. Skupinski
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