TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13018860
Played Aug 26Finished
Jacek Zelezik
Home
1.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117113118––––
Arkadiusz Skupinski
Away
3.75
At publish
Lost last 10Form at publish
0–10Last 10Lost last 10
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:48 and never touched — 74.7% is still 74.7%
Graded at full timeJacek Zelezik to win
74.7%
74.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJacek Zelezik above · Arkadiusz Skupinski below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 51 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Jacek Zelezik at 74.7%
51 points played in total.
H2H Jacek Zelezik 8–2 Arkadiusz Skupinski Arkadiusz Skupinski has won 2 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:48What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Zelezik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-2 in 10
Zelezik
Correct
gap of 6 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zelezik 1520 vs Skupinski 1210
Zelezik
Correct
both rated, 309 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zelezik 60% vs Skupinski 0%
Zelezik
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zelezik 60% vs Skupinski 0%
Zelezik
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zelezik +1 · Skupinski -5
Skupinski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% — Strong (leans Zelezik) · live re-read · sealed at 75% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skupinski form (0%) is below what odds imply (27%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZelezik 1.25 / Skupinski 3.75
Signal prob.77% / 23%
Edge (Zelezik)+1.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13018860
Zelezik1.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite72% won 164 of 229
Up 2–0, closes it96% 99 of 103
Up 1–0, closes it84% 133 of 159
Skupinski3.75
0%won 0 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 10
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog32% won 39 of 123
Down 0–1, comes back19% 14 of 74
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 47
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZelezik8wins
AwaySkupinski2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderZelezik leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZelezik100%4 of 4
AwaySkupinski33.3%2 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zelezik4Skupinski6n = 10Skupinski took 6 of 10
S2Zelezik9Skupinski1n = 10Zelezik took 9 of 10
S3Zelezik5Skupinski5n = 10split evenly
S4Zelezik5Skupinski3n = 8Zelezik took 5 of 8
S5Zelezik3Skupinski0n = 3Zelezik took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricZelezikSkupinskiZ − SBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.234.6+5.6per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZelezikSkupinskiBasisWin rate · lifetime333 / 621 vs 158 / 40253.6%39.3%333 / 621 vs 158 / 402Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.135.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZelezikZelezik 1.25/Skupinski 3.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
76.6%
Zelezik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Zelezik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 26 · 18:55J. Zelezik—1111113A. Skupinski—7380
WAug 19 · 18:55J. Zelezik—81111113A. Skupinski—117461
WJun 18 · 04:20J. Zelezik—81211113A. Skupinski—1110881
WJun 17 · 18:45J. Zelezik—11119113A. Skupinski—741181
WMay 18 · 07:10J. Zelezik—12111010113A. Skupinski—104121262
WMay 6 · 23:55J. Zelezik—1111113A. Skupinski—2570
LMay 6 · 17:55J. Zelezik—7116121A. Skupinski—11711143
WJan 29 · 02:30J. Zelezik—911811133A. Skupinski—118117112
WJan 28 · 20:30J. Zelezik—731111113A. Skupinski—11116792
LDec 3 · 22:30J. Zelezik—211851A. Skupinski—11711113
J. Zelezik10
WSep 8 · 01:50J. Zelezik2.5051111113H. Tkaczyk1.50117771LSep 8 · 24:30J. Zelezik1.36111121392A. Kubiak3.001361111113LSep 7 · 23:30J. Zelezik1.838760M. Krutak1.831111113WSep 7 · 22:10J. Zelezik1.73111147123M. Lewczuk2.00681111102WSep 7 · 21:00J. Zelezik1.61711811113J. Skorupa2.2011711952LSep 7 · 19:40M. Lewczuk2.00591111113J. Zelezik1.7311119892WSep 7 · 18:55A. Kubiak3.0031190J. Zelezik1.361113113LSep 7 · 18:10J. Zelezik2.25511341H. Tkaczyk1.5711511113LSep 7 · 16:35J. Zelezik1.7391011101J. Skorupa2.0011129123WSep 7 · 15:50M. Krutak1.8381110101J. Zelezik1.8311812123
A. Skupinski10
LSep 9 · 16:35A. Skupinski4.5011114882A. Zmijewski1.17981111113WSep 9 · 15:50M. Baran1.4496111142A. Skupinski2.63111189113WSep 2 · 19:40A. Fomin1.22121181192A. Skupinski4.00145116113LSep 2 · 18:55M. Lewczuk1.3011116113A. Skupinski3.40931171LSep 2 · 18:10A. Skupinski4.33391141A. Zmijewski1.2011119113LSep 2 · 16:35A. Skupinski3.008101181A. Krezel1.3611128113LSep 2 · 15:50J. Zelezik1.14414811113A. Skupinski5.00111211382WAug 26 · 19:40Z. Nocun1.50911781A. Skupinski2.5011711113LAug 26 · 18:10A. Skupinski1.7310139101A. Krezel2.00121111123LAug 26 · 16:35A. Skupinski4.008980H. Tkaczyk1.221111113
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