TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13018766
Played Aug 26Finished
Zbigniew Nocun
Home
1.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911117711811––
Arkadiusz Skupinski
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 10Form at publish
0–10Last 10Lost last 10
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:45 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeZbigniew Nocun to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingZbigniew Nocun above · Arkadiusz Skupinski below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 75 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Zbigniew Nocun at 54.0%
75 points played in total.
H2H Zbigniew Nocun 30–16 Arkadiusz Skupinski Arkadiusz Skupinski has won 16 of their 46 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:45What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Nocun
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
30-16 in 46
Nocun
Wrong
gap of 14 in 46, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nocun 1412 vs Skupinski 1190
Nocun
Wrong
both rated, 222 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nocun 40% vs Skupinski 0%
Nocun
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nocun 50% vs Skupinski 0%
Nocun
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Nocun -2 · Skupinski -5
Skupinski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Nocun) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skupinski form (0%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNocun 1.50 / Skupinski 2.50
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Nocun)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13018766
Nocun1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite66% won 300 of 454
Up 2–0, closes it96% 147 of 154
Up 1–0, closes it87% 217 of 250
Skupinski2.50
0%won 0 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 10
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog32% won 39 of 123
Down 0–1, comes back19% 14 of 74
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 47
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNocun5wins
AwaySkupinski5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNocun75%3 of 4
AwaySkupinski66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nocun4Skupinski6n = 10Skupinski took 6 of 10
S2Nocun5Skupinski5n = 10split evenly
S3Nocun4Skupinski6n = 10Skupinski took 6 of 10
S4Nocun5Skupinski2n = 7Nocun took 5 of 7
S5Nocun2Skupinski2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricNocunSkupinskiN − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.139.9−1.8per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNocunSkupinskiBasisWin rate · lifetime610 / 1021 vs 157 / 40159.8%39.2%610 / 1021 vs 157 / 401Avg sets wonper match2.21.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.535.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NocunNocun 1.50/Skupinski 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63.7%
Nocun · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Skupinski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJun 18 · 03:05Z. Nocun—6570A. Skupinski—1111113
WJun 17 · 21:05Z. Nocun—1111113A. Skupinski—9890
LJun 10 · 23:55Z. Nocun—1111130A. Skupinski—1313153
WJun 10 · 17:55Z. Nocun—1151212123A. Skupinski—7111410102
LJun 3 · 23:55Z. Nocun—711651A. Skupinski—11811113
LJun 3 · 17:55Z. Nocun—98111142A. Skupinski—111189113
WMay 28 · 03:05Z. Nocun—611811113A. Skupinski—11811382
WMay 27 · 21:05Z. Nocun—11114113A. Skupinski—851161
LApr 23 · 01:10Z. Nocun—11411962A. Skupinski—411911113
WApr 22 · 17:30Z. Nocun—81114133A. Skupinski—11512111
Z. Nocun10
LSep 7 · 02:10Z. Nocun1.5011115962G. Mucha2.50581111113LSep 7 · 24:35M. Lewczuk2.00511113113Z. Nocun1.7311671192WSep 6 · 23:45J. Zelezik2.10811951Z. Nocun1.6711911113LSep 6 · 22:55Z. Nocun1.67514651J. Skorupa2.10111211113LSep 6 · 21:45Z. Nocun5.0098120M. Guzik1.141111143LSep 6 · 20:05Z. Nocun1.50121171192G. Mucha2.501081113113WSep 6 · 18:30M. Lewczuk2.109370Z. Nocun1.671111113LSep 6 · 17:45M. Guzik1.171111113Z. Nocun4.507340WSep 6 · 16:55Z. Nocun1.5711118113J. Skorupa2.25531171WSep 6 · 15:50Z. Nocun1.67119119113J. Zelezik2.1031191162
A. Skupinski10
LSep 9 · 16:35A. Skupinski4.5011114882A. Zmijewski1.17981111113WSep 9 · 15:50M. Baran1.4496111142A. Skupinski2.63111189113WSep 2 · 19:40A. Fomin1.22121181192A. Skupinski4.00145116113LSep 2 · 18:55M. Lewczuk1.3011116113A. Skupinski3.40931171LSep 2 · 18:10A. Skupinski4.33391141A. Zmijewski1.2011119113LSep 2 · 16:35A. Skupinski3.008101181A. Krezel1.3611128113LSep 2 · 15:50J. Zelezik1.14414811113A. Skupinski5.00111211382LAug 26 · 18:55J. Zelezik1.251111113A. Skupinski3.757380LAug 26 · 18:10A. Skupinski1.7310139101A. Krezel2.00121111123LAug 26 · 16:35A. Skupinski4.008980H. Tkaczyk1.221111113
Upcoming Matches
Z. Nocun
Sep 9 · 18:20Z. Nocun1.37A. Staniczek2.70—Sep 9 · 19:30Z. Nocun1.66K. Gudzik2.01—Sep 9 · 20:20Z. Nocun2.18M. Warzecha1.56—Sep 9 · 21:05Z. Nocun1.61J. Slawomir2.10—Sep 9 · 22:40Z. Nocun1.64J. Skorupa2.04—Sep 10 · 24:20Z. Nocun2.25M. Warzecha1.52—Sep 10 · 01:30Z. Nocun1.66K. Gudzik2.01—Sep 10 · 02:20Z. Nocun1.34A. Staniczek2.85—Sep 10 · 03:00Z. Nocun—W. Stechly——Sep 10 · 15:50Z. Nocun—M. Baran——
A. Skupinski
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