TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13053505
Played Aug 31Finished
Dariusz Maszczynski
Home
2.95
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
114711711115611
Mateusz Baran
Away
1.33
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:00 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMateusz Baran to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
84 points played in total.
Set by set
114711711115611
H2H Dariusz Maszczynski 0–4 Mateusz Baran Dariusz Maszczynski has won 0 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 16:00What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (69%)
Baran
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-4 in 4
Baran
Correct
gap of 4 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Maszczynski 1125 vs Baran 1399
Baran
Correct
both rated, 275 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Maszczynski 40% vs Baran 60%
Baran
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Maszczynski 20% vs Baran 50%
Baran
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Maszczynski -3 · Baran -1
Maszczynski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Baran) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Baran form (60%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMaszczynski 2.95 / Baran 1.33
Signal prob.28% / 72%
Edge (Baran)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13053505
Maszczynski2.95
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog24% won 61 of 252
Down 0–1, comes back12% 21 of 176
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 115
Baran1.33
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite70% won 33 of 47
Up 2–0, closes it100% 8 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it81% 21 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeMaszczynski0wins
AwayBaran4wins
2 of 4 to a deciderBaran leads 4–0, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Maszczynski2Baran2n = 4split evenly
S2Maszczynski2Baran2n = 4split evenly
S3Maszczynski1Baran3n = 4Baran took 3 of 4
S4Maszczynski1Baran3n = 4Baran took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away250%
1–3Four sets, away250%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricMaszczynskiBaranM − BBasisWins04−4in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match43.048.8−5.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaszczynskiBaranBasisWin rate · lifetime85 / 394 vs 53 / 9421.6%56.4%85 / 394 vs 53 / 94Avg sets wonper match1.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match33.340.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BaranMaszczynski 2.95/Baran 1.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
71.7%
Baran · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Baran won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LAug 1 · 21:45D. Maszczynski—1011715112M. Baran—1261113133
LAug 1 · 17:45D. Maszczynski—1111571M. Baran—71311113
LJul 18 · 22:55D. Maszczynski—71613572M. Baran—11141111113
LJul 18 · 16:55D. Maszczynski—117991M. Baran—71111113
D. Maszczynski10
LSep 6 · 01:45D. Maszczynski9.004620T. Kocik1.041111113WSep 6 · 24:35D. Maszczynski3.00116116143P. Gesiarz1.36711711122LSep 5 · 23:20D. Maszczynski3.7511881172G. Mucha1.25311119113WSep 5 · 22:10O. Jedrzejowski1.171151071D. Maszczynski4.5081112113LSep 5 · 21:20D. Maszczynski2.3811360A. Staniczek1.531311113WSep 5 · 19:40D. Maszczynski5.501111113O. Jedrzejowski1.137590LSep 5 · 18:30D. Maszczynski2.757560P. Gesiarz1.401111113LSep 5 · 17:20D. Maszczynski3.405911101G. Mucha1.3011112123LSep 5 · 16:15T. Kocik1.021121111113D. Maszczynski11.0051113872WSep 5 · 15:25D. Maszczynski2.75111168113A. Staniczek1.4099111172
M. Baran10
WSep 1 · 02:20M. Machelski2.0511030M. Baran1.681112113WSep 1 · 01:35A. Staniczek1.9515135852M. Baran1.7513111111113LAug 31 · 23:35J. Cyndera1.74111110113M. Baran1.95981231LAug 31 · 22:50J. Zelezik1.5941111113M. Baran2.17115991LAug 31 · 21:15A. Barton3.4011311113M. Baran1.26711791WAug 31 · 19:50M. Machelski2.006990M. Baran1.701111113LAug 31 · 16:50A. Staniczek1.9891111113M. Baran1.71119871WAug 31 · 15:30P. Gesiarz1.80111112972M. Baran1.907131011113WAug 31 · 15:10J. Cyndera1.9013611982M. Baran1.801111511113LAug 31 · 14:10J. Zelezik1.44911311113M. Baran2.5511811762
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