Jacek Zelezik vs Mateusz Baran 3-2

TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series

TT Elite SeriesMatch #13052448

Played Aug 31Finished

Jacek Zelezik

Home

1.44

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

4–6Last 10Lost last 1

Final

3 – 2

Set by set

911118311117116

Mateusz Baran

Away

2.55

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Won last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:05 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%

Graded at full time

Mateusz Baran to win

54.0%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

no pick shipped

How it is going

Point-by-point unavailable

BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.

88 points played in total.

Set by set

911118311117116

H2H Jacek Zelezik 2–1 Mateusz Baran Mateusz Baran has won 1 of their 3 meetings.

Last 3 · 2–1Same sideHead to head

The pickNo pick published

Sealed 12:05

What took a side0 for · 2 against · 4 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.44 (64%)

Zelezik

Correct

no bar to clear — a priced side always votes

H2H

2-1 in 3

—

Too close

gap of 1, under the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Zelezik 1462 vs Baran 1400

Zelezik

Correct

both rated, 62 points apart — no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Zelezik 40% vs Baran 40%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Zelezik 40% vs Baran 50%

—

Too close

10pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Zelezik -1 · Baran +1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

0 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Zelezik) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Zelezik form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsZelezik 1.44 / Baran 2.55

Signal prob.67% / 33%

Edge (Zelezik)+2.8pp

TT Elite Series · #13052448

Zelezik1.44

40%won 4 of 10 · last 10

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As favourite71% won 168 of 237

Up 2–0, closes it96% 101 of 105

Up 1–0, closes it83% 135 of 162

Baran2.55

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As underdog42% won 17 of 41

Down 0–1, comes back30% 8 of 27

Down 0–2, comes back11% 2 of 18

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 3 meetings

HomeZelezik2wins

AwayBaran1wins

Zelezik leads 2–1.

First set to match win · in this matchup

Not enough first sets

Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.

Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Zelezik2Baran1n = 3Zelezik took 2 of 3

S2Zelezik2Baran1n = 3Zelezik took 2 of 3

S3Zelezik2Baran1n = 3Zelezik took 2 of 3

Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate

How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home133%

3–1Four sets, home133%

3–2Decider, home00%

2–3Decider, away00%

1–3Four sets, away133%

0–3Straight, away00%

These 3 meetings

MetricZelezikBaranZ − BBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match37.034.0+3.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricZelezikBaranBasisWin rate · lifetime336 / 627 vs 51 / 9053.6%56.7%336 / 627 vs 51 / 90Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.140.2per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction

Match Winner

Zelezik

Zelezik 1.44/Baran 2.55

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

66.7%

Zelezik · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–2

Zelezik won

Recent Results

H2H · no odds on record3

WAug 26 · 03:05J. Zelezik—81111113M. Baran—117371

WAug 25 · 21:05J. Zelezik—1711113M. Baran—15880

LJul 20 · 18:30J. Zelezik—125681M. Baran—101111113

J. Zelezik10

WSep 7 · 02:35J. Zelezik1.7311117133J. Skorupa2.009911111 WSep 7 · 01:00J. Zelezik2.6381115113M. Guzik1.441171391 LSep 6 · 23:45J. Zelezik2.10811951Z. Nocun1.6711911113 WSep 6 · 22:10J. Zelezik1.80111110113M. Lewczuk1.91951281 LSep 6 · 21:00J. Zelezik2.209460G. Mucha1.611111113 LSep 6 · 19:40M. Lewczuk1.911111119113J. Zelezik1.8097131132 WSep 6 · 18:55M. Guzik1.4412115111J. Zelezik2.6314611133 WSep 6 · 18:10J. Zelezik1.67461111113J. Skorupa2.1011116442 WSep 6 · 16:35J. Zelezik2.20711711113G. Mucha1.6111811562 LSep 6 · 15:50Z. Nocun1.67119119113J. Zelezik2.1031191162

M. Baran10

WSep 1 · 02:20M. Machelski2.0511030M. Baran1.681112113 WSep 1 · 01:35A. Staniczek1.9515135852M. Baran1.7513111111113 LAug 31 · 23:35J. Cyndera1.74111110113M. Baran1.95981231 LAug 31 · 22:50J. Zelezik1.5941111113M. Baran2.17115991 LAug 31 · 21:15A. Barton3.4011311113M. Baran1.26711791 WAug 31 · 19:50M. Machelski2.006990M. Baran1.701111113 WAug 31 · 18:30D. Maszczynski2.9511771162M. Baran1.33411115113 LAug 31 · 16:50A. Staniczek1.9891111113M. Baran1.71119871 WAug 31 · 15:30P. Gesiarz1.80111112972M. Baran1.907131011113 WAug 31 · 15:10J. Cyndera1.9013611982M. Baran1.801111511113

Upcoming Matches

J. Zelezik4 of 10 neutral

Sep 7 · 15:50J. Zelezik—M. Krutak——Sep 7 · 16:35J. Zelezik—J. Skorupa——Sep 7 · 18:10J. Zelezik—H. Tkaczyk——Sep 7 · 18:55J. Zelezik—A. Kubiak——Sep 7 · 19:40J. Zelezik—M. Lewczuk——Sep 7 · 21:00J. Zelezik—J. Skorupa——Sep 7 · 22:10J. Zelezik—M. Lewczuk——Sep 7 · 23:30J. Zelezik—M. Krutak——Sep 8 · 24:30J. Zelezik—A. Kubiak——Sep 8 · 01:50J. Zelezik—H. Tkaczyk——

M. Baran

Nothing scheduled

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