TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13048027
Played Aug 31Finished
Michal Machelski
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611911911––––
Mateusz Baran
Away
1.70
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:05 and never touched — 55.2% is still 55.2%
Graded at full timeMateusz Baran to win
55.2%
55.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
57 points played in total.
Set by set
611911911––––
H2H Michal Machelski 3–5 Mateusz Baran Michal Machelski has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 16:05What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.70 (54%)
Baran
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-5 in 8
Baran
Correct
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Machelski 1374 vs Baran 1403
Baran
Correct
both rated, 29 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Machelski 80% vs Baran 60%
Machelski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Machelski 60% vs Baran 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Machelski +3 · Baran +1
Machelski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Baran) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Machelski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMachelski 2.00 / Baran 1.70
Signal prob.46% / 55%
Edge (Baran)+0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13048027
Machelski2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog34% won 119 of 350
Down 0–1, comes back17% 34 of 198
Down 0–2, comes back3% 3 of 117
Baran1.70
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite70% won 33 of 47
Up 2–0, closes it100% 8 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it81% 21 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeMachelski3wins
AwayBaran5wins
7 of 8 to a deciderBaran leads 5–3, and 7 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMachelski0%0 of 3
AwayBaran40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Machelski3Baran5n = 8Baran took 5 of 8
S2Machelski3Baran5n = 8Baran took 5 of 8
S3Machelski5Baran3n = 8Machelski took 5 of 8
S4Machelski3Baran4n = 7Baran took 4 of 7
S5Machelski3Baran4n = 7Baran took 4 of 7
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home338%
2–3Decider, away450%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricMachelskiBaranM − BBasisWins35−2in 8 meetingsFirst set35−2of 8Avg pointsper match46.648.2−1.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMachelskiBaranBasisWin rate · lifetime415 / 1124 vs 54 / 9536.9%56.8%415 / 1124 vs 54 / 95Avg sets wonper match1.72.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.340.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BaranMachelski 2.00/Baran 1.70
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.5%
Baran · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Baran won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WAug 27 · 02:20M. Machelski—811127183M. Baran—1121011162
LAug 26 · 18:20M. Machelski—96110M. Baran—1111133
LAug 10 · 01:45M. Machelski—11681652M. Baran—4111114113
LAug 9 · 16:15M. Machelski—108111592M. Baran—1211613113
LAug 6 · 04:40M. Machelski—11413852M. Baran—6111111113
WAug 5 · 22:40M. Machelski—871211113M. Baran—111110862
WAug 2 · 22:10M. Machelski—1313115113M. Baran—151191122
LAug 2 · 19:40M. Machelski—111181182M. Baran—991113113
M. Machelski10
LSep 7 · 08:00J. Slawomir1.6511711113M. Machelski2.10811591LSep 7 · 07:10A. Zmijewski1.4541111113M. Machelski2.50113841WSep 7 · 06:25M. Machelski2.05712711113M. Wolny1.68111011952WSep 7 · 04:50M. Machelski1.191191011113A. Barton4.0081112792WSep 7 · 04:00W. Stechly4.006990M. Machelski1.221111113LSep 4 · 02:10M. Machelski2.256720A. Krezel1.571111113LSep 4 · 24:35M. Lewczuk1.83111195113M. Machelski1.8379111182WSep 3 · 23:45J. Michalik1.8311811111M. Machelski1.8313118133LSep 3 · 22:55M. Machelski2.50115331H. Tkaczyk1.5091111113LSep 3 · 21:45M. Machelski3.50119551M. Guzik1.2871111113
M. Baran10
WSep 1 · 02:20M. Machelski2.0511030M. Baran1.681112113WSep 1 · 01:35A. Staniczek1.9515135852M. Baran1.7513111111113LAug 31 · 23:35J. Cyndera1.74111110113M. Baran1.95981231LAug 31 · 22:50J. Zelezik1.5941111113M. Baran2.17115991LAug 31 · 21:15A. Barton3.4011311113M. Baran1.26711791WAug 31 · 18:30D. Maszczynski2.9511771162M. Baran1.33411115113LAug 31 · 16:50A. Staniczek1.9891111113M. Baran1.71119871WAug 31 · 15:30P. Gesiarz1.80111112972M. Baran1.907131011113WAug 31 · 15:10J. Cyndera1.9013611982M. Baran1.801111511113LAug 31 · 14:10J. Zelezik1.44911311113M. Baran2.5511811762
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