TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13046463
Played Aug 31Finished
Piotr Gesiarz
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11711131210911711
Mateusz Baran
Away
1.90
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:17 and never touched — 57.1% is still 57.1%
Graded at full timeMateusz Baran to win
57.1%
57.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
102 points played in total.
Set by set
11711131210911711
H2H Piotr Gesiarz 1–3 Mateusz Baran Piotr Gesiarz has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 08:17What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Gesiarz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Baran
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gesiarz 1367 vs Baran 1403
Baran
Correct
both rated, 36 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gesiarz 20% vs Baran 40%
Baran
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gesiarz 40% vs Baran 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Gesiarz +1 · Baran +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Gesiarz) · live re-read · sealed at 43% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Baran form (40%) is below what odds imply (53%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGesiarz 1.80 / Baran 1.90
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Gesiarz)+2.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13046463
Gesiarz1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 62 of 105
Up 2–0, closes it93% 42 of 45
Up 1–0, closes it78% 54 of 69
Baran1.90
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 17 of 41
Down 0–1, comes back30% 8 of 27
Down 0–2, comes back11% 2 of 18
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeGesiarz1wins
AwayBaran3wins
3 of 4 to a deciderBaran leads 3–1, and 3 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gesiarz2Baran2n = 4split evenly
S2Gesiarz3Baran1n = 4Gesiarz took 3 of 4
S3Gesiarz4Baran0n = 4Gesiarz took 4 of 4
S4Gesiarz0Baran3n = 3Baran took 3 of 3
S5Gesiarz0Baran3n = 3Baran took 3 of 3
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away375%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricGesiarzBaranG − BBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match43.241.5+1.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGesiarzBaranBasisWin rate · lifetime127 / 275 vs 52 / 9246.2%56.5%127 / 275 vs 52 / 92Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.140.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GesiarzGesiarz 1.80/Baran 1.90
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Gesiarz · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Baran won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LAug 2 · 01:45P. Gesiarz—111111882M. Baran—139811103
WAug 1 · 16:15P. Gesiarz—1111113M. Baran—7560
LJul 18 · 21:20P. Gesiarz—91111752M. Baran—116711113
LJul 18 · 15:25P. Gesiarz—121011782M. Baran—1012711113
P. Gesiarz10
LSep 6 · 02:10P. Gesiarz1.91114118112G. Mucha1.80911611133LSep 6 · 24:35D. Maszczynski3.00116116143P. Gesiarz1.36711711122WSep 5 · 23:45O. Jedrzejowski1.445880P. Gesiarz2.631111113WSep 5 · 22:55P. Gesiarz1.301111113A. Staniczek3.407880LSep 5 · 21:45P. Gesiarz3.506690T. Kocik1.281111113LSep 5 · 20:05P. Gesiarz1.8311990G. Mucha1.831311113WSep 5 · 18:30D. Maszczynski2.757560P. Gesiarz1.401111113WSep 5 · 17:45T. Kocik1.28119981P. Gesiarz3.5081111113WSep 5 · 16:55P. Gesiarz1.301111113A. Staniczek3.407770WSep 5 · 15:50P. Gesiarz2.75812115113O. Jedrzejowski1.40111071142
M. Baran10
WSep 1 · 02:20M. Machelski2.0511030M. Baran1.681112113WSep 1 · 01:35A. Staniczek1.9515135852M. Baran1.7513111111113LAug 31 · 23:35J. Cyndera1.74111110113M. Baran1.95981231LAug 31 · 22:50J. Zelezik1.5941111113M. Baran2.17115991LAug 31 · 21:15A. Barton3.4011311113M. Baran1.26711791WAug 31 · 19:50M. Machelski2.006990M. Baran1.701111113WAug 31 · 18:30D. Maszczynski2.9511771162M. Baran1.33411115113LAug 31 · 16:50A. Staniczek1.9891111113M. Baran1.71119871WAug 31 · 15:10J. Cyndera1.9013611982M. Baran1.801111511113LAug 31 · 14:10J. Zelezik1.44911311113M. Baran2.5511811762
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