Mateusz Baran vs Andriej Fomin 3-2

TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series

TT Elite SeriesMatch #13102550

Played Sep 9Finished

Mateusz Baran

Home

2.00

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Lost last 1

Final

3 – 2

Set by set

1174111168111210

Andriej Fomin

Away

1.73

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

4–6Last 10Won last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:18 and never touched — 58.2% is still 58.2%

Graded at full time

Mateusz Baran to win

58.2%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Right

not sent

«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.

How it is goingMateusz Baran above · Andriej Fomin below

Set 1 · 11-7

Set 2 · 4-11

Set 3 · 11-6

Set 4 · 8-11

Set 5 · 12-10

Point 91 set 5, 12-10 — our read held Mateusz Baran at 58.2%

91 points played in total.

H2H Mateusz Baran 4–2 Andriej Fomin Andriej Fomin has won 2 of their 6 meetings.

Last 6 · 4–2Same sideHead to head

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 06:18

What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.73 (54%)

Fomin

Wrong

no bar to clear — a priced side always votes

H2H

4-2 in 6

Baran

Correct

gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Baran 1381 vs Fomin 1470

Fomin

Wrong

both rated, 89 points apart — no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Baran 40% vs Fomin 60%

Fomin

Wrong

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Baran 50% vs Fomin 40%

—

Too close

10pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Baran -1 · Fomin +1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Fomin) · live re-read · sealed at 42% before the first serve

Decision Summary

Market vs Signals

Market oddsBaran 2.00 / Fomin 1.73

Signal prob.46% / 54%

Edge (Fomin)+0.3pp

TT Elite Series · #13102550

Baran2.00

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As underdog40% won 18 of 45

Down 0–1, comes back31% 9 of 29

Down 0–2, comes back11% 2 of 19

Fomin1.73

40%won 4 of 10 · last 10

oldest → newest

30%takes the first set · 3 of 10

As favourite71% won 280 of 392

Up 2–0, closes it98% 157 of 160

Up 1–0, closes it89% 220 of 248

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 6 meetings

HomeBaran4wins

AwayFomin2wins

4 of 6 to a deciderBaran leads 4–2, and 4 of those 6 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeBaran100%4 of 4

AwayFominn = 2, below the 3 needed

Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Baran4Fomin2n = 6Baran took 4 of 6

S2Baran4Fomin2n = 6Baran took 4 of 6

S3Baran2Fomin4n = 6Fomin took 4 of 6

S4Baran2Fomin3n = 5Fomin took 3 of 5

S5Baran3Fomin1n = 4Baran took 3 of 4

How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home117%

3–1Four sets, home00%

3–2Decider, home350%

2–3Decider, away117%

1–3Four sets, away117%

0–3Straight, away00%

These 6 meetings

MetricBaranFominB − FBasisWins42+2in 6 meetingsFirst set42+2of 6Avg pointsper match44.043.5+0.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricBaranFominBasisWin rate · lifetime57 / 102 vs 514 / 88355.9%58.2%57 / 102 vs 514 / 883Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.338.0per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction

Match Winner

Fomin

Baran 2.00/Fomin 1.73

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

54%

Fomin · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–2

Baran won

Recent Results

H2H · no odds on record6

WAug 27 · 05:05M. Baran—1191212113A. Fomin—911141082

LAug 26 · 20:45M. Baran—71191272A. Fomin—1171110113

WAug 1 · 22:35M. Baran—1111711113A. Fomin—77111392

WAug 1 · 15:00M. Baran—1111123A. Fomin—89100

LJul 19 · 24:10M. Baran—711791A. Fomin—11811113

WJul 18 · 20:30M. Baran—114117113A. Fomin—91141192

M. Baran10

LSep 9 · 15:50M. Baran1.4496111142A. Skupinski2.63111189113 WSep 1 · 02:20M. Machelski2.0511030M. Baran1.681112113 WSep 1 · 01:35A. Staniczek1.9515135852M. Baran1.7513111111113 LAug 31 · 23:35J. Cyndera1.74111110113M. Baran1.95981231 LAug 31 · 22:50J. Zelezik1.5941111113M. Baran2.17115991 LAug 31 · 21:15A. Barton3.4011311113M. Baran1.26711791 WAug 31 · 19:50M. Machelski2.006990M. Baran1.701111113 WAug 31 · 18:30D. Maszczynski2.9511771162M. Baran1.33411115113 LAug 31 · 16:50A. Staniczek1.9891111113M. Baran1.71119871 WAug 31 · 15:30P. Gesiarz1.80111112972M. Baran1.907131011113

A. Fomin10

WSep 9 · 15:25K. Delikatny2.6311119652A. Fomin1.44861111113 LSep 6 · 02:45A. Fomin3.3081180H. Tkaczyk1.271113113 WSep 6 · 01:10A. Fomin1.70111188113C. Pawlik1.9558111182 WSep 6 · 24:00A. Fomin1.5491311113K. Gudzik2.251111891 LSep 5 · 22:25A. Fomin1.8711621192A. Krezel1.80511117113 LSep 5 · 21:10A. Fomin2.7561090J. Oracz1.401112113 WSep 5 · 20:00A. Krezel1.907830A. Fomin1.801111113 LSep 5 · 19:10C. Pawlik1.761511113A. Fomin1.9513690 LSep 5 · 18:25A. Fomin3.40611961H. Tkaczyk1.2611711113 LSep 5 · 16:50A. Fomin2.706570J. Oracz1.391111113

Upcoming Matches

M. Baran1 of 10 neutral

Sep 9 · 17:45M. Baran2.00M. Lewczuk1.73—Sep 9 · 18:30M. Baran1.73K. Delikatny2.00—Sep 9 · 20:05M. Baran2.20A. Zmijewski1.61—Sep 9 · 21:45M. Baran1.86M. Lewczuk1.80—Sep 9 · 22:55M. Baran2.00A. Fomin1.73—Sep 9 · 23:45M. Baran1.36A. Barton3.00—Sep 10 · 24:35M. Baran1.73K. Delikatny2.00—Sep 10 · 02:10M. Baran2.17A. Zmijewski1.57—Sep 10 · 15:50M. Baran—Z. Nocun——Sep 10 · 16:35M. Baran—M. Lewczuk——

A. Fomin

Sep 9 · 18:10A. Fomin1.36A. Skupinski3.00—Sep 9 · 19:20A. Fomin1.91A. Zmijewski1.80—Sep 9 · 20:30A. Fomin1.80M. Lewczuk1.91—Sep 9 · 21:20A. Fomin1.44K. Delikatny2.63—Sep 9 · 22:55A. Fomin1.73M. Baran2.00—Sep 10 · 24:10A. Fomin1.80M. Lewczuk1.91—Sep 10 · 01:25A. Fomin1.91A. Zmijewski1.80—Sep 10 · 02:35A. Fomin1.06A. Barton8.00—

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