TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13103370
Played Sep 9Finished
Miroslaw Lewczuk
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
118311711113119
Artur Zmijewski
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:57 and never touched — 56.6% is still 56.6%
Graded at full timeArtur Zmijewski to win
56.6%
56.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMiroslaw Lewczuk above · Artur Zmijewski below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-3
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 85 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Artur Zmijewski at 56.6%
85 points played in total.
H2H Miroslaw Lewczuk 4–3 Artur Zmijewski Artur Zmijewski has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 8h before this match
Lewczuk beat Zmijewski 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:57What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Zmijewski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-3 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lewczuk 1444 vs Zmijewski 1489
Zmijewski
Wrong
both rated, 44 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lewczuk 20% vs Zmijewski 60%
Zmijewski
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lewczuk 30% vs Zmijewski 60%
Zmijewski
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lewczuk -2 · Zmijewski +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Zmijewski)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lewczuk form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLewczuk 2.10 / Zmijewski 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Zmijewski)+0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13103370
Lewczuk2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog33% won 62 of 187
Down 0–1, comes back18% 21 of 118
Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 74
Zmijewski1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite70% won 50 of 71
Up 2–0, closes it100% 27 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it85% 35 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeLewczuk4wins
AwayZmijewski3wins
1 of 7 to a deciderLewczuk leads 4–3, and 1 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLewczuk80%4 of 5
AwayZmijewskin = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lewczuk5Zmijewski2n = 7Lewczuk took 5 of 7
S2Lewczuk5Zmijewski2n = 7Lewczuk took 5 of 7
S3Lewczuk2Zmijewski5n = 7Zmijewski took 5 of 7
S4Lewczuk1Zmijewski3n = 4Zmijewski took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home229%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricLewczukZmijewskiL − ZBasisWins43+1in 7 meetingsFirst set52+3of 7Avg pointsper match34.035.1−1.1per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLewczukZmijewskiBasisWin rate · lifetime491 / 958 vs 69 / 11651.3%59.5%491 / 958 vs 69 / 116Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.338.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZmijewskiLewczuk 2.10/Zmijewski 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.2%
Zmijewski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Lewczuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WSep 9 · 15:00M. Lewczuk—11117113A. Zmijewski—871171
WSep 3 · 24:10M. Lewczuk—1111113A. Zmijewski—9470
WSep 2 · 20:30M. Lewczuk—1111910113A. Zmijewski—86111282
LAug 21 · 04:20M. Lewczuk—1011351A. Zmijewski—12711113
LAug 20 · 18:45M. Lewczuk—119861A. Zmijewski—91111113
LAug 19 · 21:20M. Lewczuk—2640A. Zmijewski—1111113
WAug 19 · 15:25M. Lewczuk—1116113A. Zmijewski—91490
M. Lewczuk10
LSep 9 · 21:45M. Baran1.8611811133M. Lewczuk1.801119111LSep 9 · 20:30M. Lewczuk2.0011810121A. Fomin1.7391112143WSep 9 · 18:55M. Lewczuk1.251411113A. Skupinski3.7512990LSep 9 · 17:45M. Lewczuk1.7311811962M. Baran2.00911711113LSep 9 · 16:15M. Lewczuk1.836680K. Delikatny1.831111113WSep 9 · 15:00M. Lewczuk2.1011117113A. Zmijewski1.67871171LSep 8 · 01:10M. Lewczuk1.80681191A. Kubiak1.9111119113LSep 8 · 24:10M. Lewczuk2.0091080M. Krutak1.731112113WSep 7 · 23:10M. Lewczuk1.534101411113J. Skorupa2.38111212772LSep 7 · 22:10J. Zelezik1.73111147123M. Lewczuk2.00681111102
A. Zmijewski10
WSep 9 · 21:00A. Barton5.504330A. Zmijewski1.131111113WSep 9 · 20:05M. Baran2.205711121A. Zmijewski1.6111115143LSep 9 · 19:20A. Fomin1.91115711113A. Zmijewski1.8091111792LSep 9 · 17:20K. Delikatny2.381115113A. Zmijewski1.5371390WSep 9 · 16:35A. Skupinski4.5011114882A. Zmijewski1.17981111113LSep 9 · 15:00M. Lewczuk2.1011117113A. Zmijewski1.67871171WSep 7 · 08:45A. Zmijewski1.451111113M. Wolny2.508480WSep 7 · 07:10A. Zmijewski1.4541111113M. Machelski2.50113841WSep 7 · 06:00A. Zmijewski1.091111117123W. Stechly5.90136711102LSep 7 · 04:25A. Zmijewski1.54111061282J. Slawomir2.354121110113
Upcoming Matches
M. Lewczuk
Sep 10 · 24:10M. Lewczuk2.00A. Fomin1.73—Sep 10 · 01:00M. Lewczuk1.07A. Barton7.50—Sep 10 · 01:45M. Lewczuk1.80K. Delikatny1.91—Sep 10 · 15:00M. Lewczuk—K. Gudzik——Sep 10 · 16:35M. Lewczuk—M. Baran——Sep 10 · 17:20M. Lewczuk—J. Cyndera——Sep 10 · 19:20M. Lewczuk—A. Staniczek——Sep 10 · 20:05M. Lewczuk—Z. Nocun——Sep 10 · 21:00M. Lewczuk—M. Baran——Sep 10 · 22:35M. Lewczuk—K. Gudzik——
A. Zmijewski
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