TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13104123
Played Sep 10Finished
Zbigniew Nocun
Home
2.15
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
119611811116118
Miroslaw Warzecha
Away
1.61
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:12 and never touched — 59.5% is still 59.5%
Graded at full timeMiroslaw Warzecha to win
59.5%
59.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
92 points played in total.
Set by set
119611811116118
H2H Zbigniew Nocun 36–30 Miroslaw Warzecha Miroslaw Warzecha has won 30 of their 66 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Warzecha beat Nocun 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:12What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (57%)
Warzecha
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
36-30 in 66
Nocun
Correct
gap of 6 in 66, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nocun 1455 vs Warzecha 1531
Warzecha
Wrong
both rated, 75 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nocun 60% vs Warzecha 40%
Nocun
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nocun 40% vs Warzecha 70%
Warzecha
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Nocun +1 · Warzecha -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Warzecha) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Warzecha form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNocun 2.15 / Warzecha 1.61
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Warzecha)+0.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13104123
Nocun2.15
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog40% won 77 of 192
Down 0–1, comes back15% 16 of 106
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 56
Warzecha1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite72% won 354 of 489
Up 2–0, closes it97% 205 of 212
Up 1–0, closes it88% 268 of 303
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNocun5wins
AwayWarzecha5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNocun71.4%5 of 7
AwayWarzecha100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nocun7Warzecha3n = 10Nocun took 7 of 10
S2Nocun6Warzecha4n = 10Nocun took 6 of 10
S3Nocun3Warzecha7n = 10Warzecha took 7 of 10
S4Nocun2Warzecha2n = 4split evenly
S5Nocun1Warzecha2n = 3Warzecha took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricNocunWarzechaN − WBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match34.534.7−0.2per matchSweeps3303–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNocunWarzechaBasisWin rate · lifetime653 / 1092 vs 854 / 121159.8%70.5%653 / 1092 vs 854 / 1211Avg sets wonper match2.22.4per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WarzechaNocun 2.15/Warzecha 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58%
Warzecha · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Nocun won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 3 · 03:30Z. Nocun—7680M. Warzecha—1111113
LSep 2 · 21:30Z. Nocun—7980M. Warzecha—1111113
LAug 20 · 04:20Z. Nocun—6580M. Warzecha—1111113
WJul 30 · 24:20Z. Nocun—111110113M. Warzecha—971281
LJul 29 · 20:20Z. Nocun—11861552M. Warzecha—7111113113
WJul 23 · 24:20Z. Nocun—1111311113M. Warzecha—76111362
WJul 22 · 20:20Z. Nocun—1111113M. Warzecha—6960
LJul 2 · 24:20Z. Nocun—111151082M. Warzecha—781112113
WJul 1 · 20:20Z. Nocun—1112123M. Warzecha—710100
WJun 4 · 02:45Z. Nocun—1111113M. Warzecha—4780
Z. Nocun10
WSep 9 · 22:40Z. Nocun1.66111110113J. Skorupa2.05891281LSep 9 · 21:05J. Slawomir1.90518711113Z. Nocun1.80111611632LSep 9 · 20:20M. Warzecha1.5611115113Z. Nocun2.18631171WSep 9 · 19:30Z. Nocun1.75311127133K. Gudzik1.901181011112WSep 9 · 18:20Z. Nocun1.3711112113A. Staniczek2.70671171LSep 7 · 02:10Z. Nocun1.5011115962G. Mucha2.50581111113LSep 7 · 24:35M. Lewczuk2.00511113113Z. Nocun1.7311671192WSep 6 · 23:45J. Zelezik2.10811951Z. Nocun1.6711911113LSep 6 · 22:55Z. Nocun1.67514651J. Skorupa2.10111211113LSep 6 · 21:45Z. Nocun5.0098120M. Guzik1.141111143
M. Warzecha10
LSep 9 · 23:05M. Warzecha1.5271170K. Gudzik2.371113113WSep 9 · 21:30M. Warzecha1.2391117113A. Staniczek3.451191581WSep 9 · 20:20M. Warzecha1.5611115113Z. Nocun2.18631171LSep 9 · 18:45M. Warzecha1.43913121182J. Slawomir2.501111149113LSep 9 · 17:30M. Warzecha1.709101112102J. Skorupa2.001112810123WSep 8 · 02:00M. Karpiuk3.251081171M. Warzecha1.2612118113WSep 8 · 01:10J. Michalik3.0058111372M. Warzecha1.311111711113WSep 8 · 24:25M. Warzecha1.191112113A. Staniczek3.9031050WSep 7 · 22:50M. Warzecha1.32119119113A. Krezel3.1081161182WSep 7 · 22:00M. Machelski3.656670M. Warzecha1.211111113
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M. Warzecha
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