TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13093677
Played Sep 8Finished
Mateusz Karpiuk
Home
3.25
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1012811118711––
Miroslaw Warzecha
Away
1.26
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:56 and never touched — 68.6% is still 68.6%
Graded at full timeMiroslaw Warzecha to win
68.6%
68.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
78 points played in total.
Set by set
1012811118711––
H2H Mateusz Karpiuk 1–6 Miroslaw Warzecha Mateusz Karpiuk has won 1 of their 7 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 10h before this match
Warzecha beat Karpiuk 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:56What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.26 (72%)
Warzecha
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-6 in 7
Warzecha
Correct
gap of 5 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Karpiuk 1247 vs Warzecha 1563
Warzecha
Correct
both rated, 316 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Karpiuk 20% vs Warzecha 80%
Warzecha
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Karpiuk 30% vs Warzecha 70%
Warzecha
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Karpiuk -4 · Warzecha +4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% — Strong (leans Warzecha) · live re-read · sealed at 69% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Karpiuk form (20%) is below what odds imply (31%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKarpiuk 3.25 / Warzecha 1.26
Signal prob.24% / 77%
Edge (Warzecha)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13093677
Karpiuk3.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog42% won 58 of 137
Down 0–1, comes back23% 17 of 74
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 39
Warzecha1.26
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite73% won 351 of 484
Up 2–0, closes it97% 202 of 209
Up 1–0, closes it88% 264 of 300
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeKarpiuk1wins
AwayWarzecha6wins
4 of 7 to a deciderWarzecha leads 6–1, and 4 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKarpiukn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayWarzecha80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Karpiuk2Warzecha5n = 7Warzecha took 5 of 7
S2Karpiuk2Warzecha5n = 7Warzecha took 5 of 7
S3Karpiuk2Warzecha5n = 7Warzecha took 5 of 7
S4Karpiuk3Warzecha2n = 5Karpiuk took 3 of 5
S5Karpiuk1Warzecha3n = 4Warzecha took 3 of 4
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away343%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away229%
These 7 meetings
MetricKarpiukWarzechaK − WBasisWins16−5in 7 meetingsFirst set25−3of 7Avg pointsper match35.942.9−7.0per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKarpiukWarzechaBasisWin rate · lifetime116 / 262 vs 855 / 121044.3%70.7%116 / 262 vs 855 / 1210Avg sets wonper match2.02.4per matchAvg pointsper match39.038.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WarzechaKarpiuk 3.25/Warzecha 1.26
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
76.5%
Warzecha · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Warzecha won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LSep 7 · 16:25M. Karpiuk—3960M. Warzecha—1111113
LAug 20 · 01:10M. Karpiuk—9850M. Warzecha—1111113
WAug 19 · 17:30M. Karpiuk—971112113M. Warzecha—111171072
LAug 13 · 01:10M. Karpiuk—1131211M. Warzecha—21114113
LAug 12 · 17:30M. Karpiuk—111110892M. Warzecha—671211113
LAug 11 · 01:50M. Karpiuk—1111711102M. Warzecha—139119123
LAug 10 · 18:10M. Karpiuk—34111252M. Warzecha—1111610113
M. Karpiuk10
LSep 8 · 24:45M. Karpiuk1.80146118112M. Machelski1.911211711133LSep 7 · 23:35M. Karpiuk1.75211961A. Krezel1.9511611113LSep 7 · 22:25J. Michalik1.7311138113M. Karpiuk1.929111181LSep 7 · 21:35M. Karpiuk1.60513581A. Staniczek2.10111111113WSep 7 · 20:00M. Karpiuk1.60511118123D. Maszczynski2.15116411102LSep 7 · 18:45M. Karpiuk2.10671151J. Slawomir1.6011117113LSep 7 · 17:35M. Karpiuk1.8591110111A. Krezel1.8511712133LSep 7 · 16:25M. Warzecha1.181111113M. Karpiuk4.103960WSep 7 · 15:35M. Karpiuk1.7213814113A. Staniczek1.9711111281WSep 1 · 01:50Z. Nocun1.61711771M. Karpiuk2.2011611113
M. Warzecha10
WSep 8 · 01:10J. Michalik3.0058111372M. Warzecha1.311111711113WSep 8 · 24:25M. Warzecha1.191112113A. Staniczek3.9031050WSep 7 · 22:50M. Warzecha1.32119119113A. Krezel3.1081161182WSep 7 · 22:00M. Machelski3.656670M. Warzecha1.211111113LSep 7 · 20:45M. Warzecha1.2269131172A. Staniczek3.601111118113WSep 7 · 19:10M. Warzecha1.1511138113D. Maszczynski4.507111181LSep 7 · 18:00M. Warzecha1.405940J. Slawomir2.751111113WSep 7 · 16:25M. Warzecha1.181111113M. Karpiuk4.103960LSep 7 · 15:10M. Warzecha1.27811981A. Krezel3.3011811113WSep 3 · 04:20W. Stechly9.255670M. Warzecha1.021111113
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