TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13098451
Played Sep 9Finished
Zbigniew Nocun
Home
1.37
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
116117211117––
Adam Staniczek
Away
2.70
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:59 and never touched — 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeZbigniew Nocun to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
66 points played in total.
Set by set
116117211117––
H2H Zbigniew Nocun 38–9 Adam Staniczek Adam Staniczek has won 9 of their 47 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:59What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.37 (66%)
Nocun
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
38-9 in 47
Nocun
Correct
gap of 29 in 47, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nocun 1450 vs Staniczek 1253
Nocun
Correct
both rated, 197 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nocun 20% vs Staniczek 40%
Staniczek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nocun 40% vs Staniczek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Nocun -2 · Staniczek -3
Staniczek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Nocun) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nocun form (20%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNocun 1.37 / Staniczek 2.70
Signal prob.71% / 29%
Edge (Nocun)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13098451
Nocun1.37
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite67% won 320 of 481
Up 2–0, closes it95% 155 of 164
Up 1–0, closes it87% 230 of 266
Staniczek2.70
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog26% won 115 of 445
Down 0–1, comes back11% 31 of 282
Down 0–2, comes back3% 6 of 210
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNocun7wins
AwayStaniczek3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderNocun leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNocun100%5 of 5
AwayStaniczek60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nocun5Staniczek5n = 10split evenly
S2Nocun8Staniczek2n = 10Nocun took 8 of 10
S3Nocun6Staniczek4n = 10Nocun took 6 of 10
S4Nocun4Staniczek1n = 5Nocun took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricNocunStaniczekN − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.931.3+5.6per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNocunStaniczekBasisWin rate · lifetime650 / 1087 vs 369 / 100959.8%36.6%650 / 1087 vs 369 / 1009Avg sets wonper match2.21.6per matchAvg pointsper match38.433.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NocunNocun 1.37/Staniczek 2.70
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.7%
Nocun · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Nocun won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 4 · 01:30Z. Nocun—1411113A. Staniczek—12990
WSep 3 · 19:30Z. Nocun—101111183A. Staniczek—1287161
WSep 3 · 05:05Z. Nocun—1111113A. Staniczek—7860
LSep 2 · 20:45Z. Nocun—3750A. Staniczek—1111113
WAug 20 · 23:20Z. Nocun—1111113A. Staniczek—1240
LAug 20 · 17:20Z. Nocun—119111162A. Staniczek—131183113
WAug 12 · 22:10Z. Nocun—11119113A. Staniczek—771161
LAug 12 · 19:40Z. Nocun—811371A. Staniczek—11711113
WAug 5 · 21:45Z. Nocun—1011611113A. Staniczek—12511772
WAug 5 · 17:45Z. Nocun—1211113A. Staniczek—10460
Z. Nocun10
WSep 9 · 19:30Z. Nocun1.75311127133K. Gudzik1.901181011112LSep 7 · 02:10Z. Nocun1.5011115962G. Mucha2.50581111113LSep 7 · 24:35M. Lewczuk2.00511113113Z. Nocun1.7311671192WSep 6 · 23:45J. Zelezik2.10811951Z. Nocun1.6711911113LSep 6 · 22:55Z. Nocun1.67514651J. Skorupa2.10111211113LSep 6 · 21:45Z. Nocun5.0098120M. Guzik1.141111143LSep 6 · 20:05Z. Nocun1.50121171192G. Mucha2.501081113113WSep 6 · 18:30M. Lewczuk2.109370Z. Nocun1.671111113LSep 6 · 17:45M. Guzik1.171111113Z. Nocun4.507340WSep 6 · 16:55Z. Nocun1.5711118113J. Skorupa2.25531171
A. Staniczek10
WSep 9 · 19:10A. Staniczek2.4261111173J. Skorupa1.461137151LSep 8 · 02:45J. Michalik1.501111113A. Staniczek2.302670LSep 8 · 01:35A. Staniczek2.01991471A. Krezel1.66111112113LSep 8 · 24:25M. Warzecha1.191112113A. Staniczek3.9031050WSep 7 · 23:10M. Machelski1.9516150A. Staniczek1.751811113WSep 7 · 21:35M. Karpiuk1.60513581A. Staniczek2.10111111113WSep 7 · 20:45M. Warzecha1.2269131172A. Staniczek3.601111118113LSep 7 · 19:35A. Staniczek2.01611111162A. Krezel1.66111375113WSep 7 · 18:25D. Maszczynski2.40511681A. Staniczek1.5011911113LSep 7 · 17:10J. Slawomir1.5481111113A. Staniczek2.25117781
Upcoming Matches
Z. Nocun
Sep 9 · 20:20Z. Nocun2.18M. Warzecha1.56—Sep 9 · 21:05Z. Nocun1.61J. Slawomir2.10—Sep 9 · 22:40Z. Nocun1.66J. Skorupa2.05—Sep 10 · 24:20Z. Nocun2.25M. Warzecha1.52—Sep 10 · 01:30Z. Nocun1.66K. Gudzik2.01—Sep 10 · 02:20Z. Nocun1.34A. Staniczek2.85—Sep 10 · 03:00Z. Nocun1.11W. Stechly5.05—Sep 10 · 04:20Z. Nocun—J. Skorupa——Sep 10 · 15:50Z. Nocun—M. Baran——Sep 10 · 20:05Z. Nocun—M. Lewczuk——
A. Staniczek
Sep 9 · 20:45A. Staniczek2.46K. Gudzik1.44—Sep 9 · 21:30A. Staniczek3.45M. Warzecha1.23—Sep 9 · 22:20A. Staniczek2.35J. Slawomir1.48—Sep 9 · 23:30A. Staniczek2.42J. Skorupa1.46—Sep 10 · 24:45A. Staniczek1.31W. Stechly3.00—Sep 10 · 02:20A. Staniczek2.85Z. Nocun1.34—Sep 10 · 03:20A. Staniczek3.60M. Warzecha1.22—Sep 10 · 04:40A. Staniczek—K. Gudzik——Sep 10 · 18:10A. Staniczek—M. Baran——Sep 10 · 19:20A. Staniczek—M. Lewczuk——
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