TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13105501
Played Sep 10Finished
Zbigniew Nocun
Home
1.64
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1012811711––––
Jakub Skorupa
Away
2.04
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:49 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeZbigniew Nocun to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
59 points played in total.
Set by set
1012811711––––
H2H Zbigniew Nocun 35–23 Jakub Skorupa Jakub Skorupa has won 23 of their 58 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Nocun beat Skorupa 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:49What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.64 (55%)
Nocun
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
35-23 in 58
Nocun
Wrong
gap of 12 in 58, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nocun 1442 vs Skorupa 1344
Nocun
Wrong
both rated, 98 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nocun 80% vs Skorupa 40%
Nocun
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nocun 60% vs Skorupa 40%
Nocun
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Nocun -1 · Skorupa -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Nocun) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nocun form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (61%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNocun 1.64 / Skorupa 2.04
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Nocun)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13105501
Nocun1.64
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite67% won 323 of 486
Up 2–0, closes it95% 157 of 166
Up 1–0, closes it86% 232 of 270
Skorupa2.04
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog33% won 101 of 309
Down 0–1, comes back14% 24 of 168
Down 0–2, comes back8% 8 of 100
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNocun7wins
AwaySkorupa3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderNocun leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNocun100%5 of 5
AwaySkorupa60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nocun5Skorupa5n = 10split evenly
S2Nocun6Skorupa4n = 10Nocun took 6 of 10
S3Nocun3Skorupa7n = 10Skorupa took 7 of 10
S4Nocun8Skorupa1n = 9Nocun took 8 of 9
S5Nocun2Skorupa1n = 3Nocun took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricNocunSkorupaN − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.139.3+1.8per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNocunSkorupaBasisWin rate · lifetime656 / 1096 vs 303 / 63359.9%47.9%656 / 1096 vs 303 / 633Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.537.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NocunNocun 1.64/Skorupa 2.04
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.6%
Nocun · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Skorupa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 9 · 22:40Z. Nocun—111110113J. Skorupa—891281
LSep 6 · 22:55Z. Nocun—514651J. Skorupa—111211113
WSep 6 · 16:55Z. Nocun—11118113J. Skorupa—531171
WSep 4 · 04:40Z. Nocun—11139113J. Skorupa—8111191
WSep 3 · 22:40Z. Nocun—81611123J. Skorupa—11146101
WSep 2 · 23:30Z. Nocun—1110611113J. Skorupa—71211872
LSep 2 · 19:10Z. Nocun—91181172J. Skorupa—117118113
WAug 31 · 21:00Z. Nocun—11513113J. Skorupa—7111151
LAug 31 · 16:35Z. Nocun—10880J. Skorupa—1211113
WAug 30 · 23:20Z. Nocun—841111113J. Skorupa—11117692
Z. Nocun10
LSep 10 · 03:00W. Stechly5.0581111113Z. Nocun1.11117591WSep 10 · 02:20A. Staniczek2.85881112102Z. Nocun1.341111310123WSep 10 · 01:30Z. Nocun1.85911911113K. Gudzik1.8011311792WSep 10 · 24:20Z. Nocun2.15116811113M. Warzecha1.6191111682WSep 9 · 22:40Z. Nocun1.66111110113J. Skorupa2.05891281LSep 9 · 21:05J. Slawomir1.90518711113Z. Nocun1.80111611632LSep 9 · 20:20M. Warzecha1.5611115113Z. Nocun2.18631171WSep 9 · 19:30Z. Nocun1.75311127133K. Gudzik1.901181011112WSep 9 · 18:20Z. Nocun1.3711112113A. Staniczek2.70671171LSep 7 · 02:10Z. Nocun1.5011115962G. Mucha2.50581111113
J. Skorupa10
LSep 10 · 03:40K. Gudzik1.8011911133J. Skorupa1.847119111WSep 10 · 01:55W. Stechly4.20211571J. Skorupa1.1611811113LSep 10 · 01:10M. Warzecha1.41611411113J. Skorupa2.5511311252WSep 9 · 23:30A. Staniczek2.423930J. Skorupa1.461111113LSep 9 · 22:40Z. Nocun1.66111110113J. Skorupa2.05891281LSep 9 · 21:55K. Gudzik1.85136119113J. Skorupa1.85111161142LSep 9 · 19:55J. Slawomir1.811512113J. Skorupa1.83131040LSep 9 · 19:10A. Staniczek2.4261111173J. Skorupa1.461137151WSep 9 · 17:30M. Warzecha1.709101112102J. Skorupa2.001112810123WSep 8 · 01:30M. Krutak1.836850J. Skorupa1.831111113
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