TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13104703
Played Sep 10Finished
Adam Staniczek
Home
2.85
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 5
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
81181111312101012
Zbigniew Nocun
Away
1.34
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:44 and never touched — 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeZbigniew Nocun to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
96 points played in total.
Set by set
81181111312101012
H2H Adam Staniczek 9–39 Zbigniew Nocun Adam Staniczek has won 9 of their 48 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 8h before this match
Nocun beat Staniczek 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:44What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.34 (68%)
Nocun
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-39 in 48
Nocun
Correct
gap of 30 in 48, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Staniczek 1208 vs Nocun 1457
Nocun
Correct
both rated, 249 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Staniczek 0% vs Nocun 60%
Nocun
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Staniczek 10% vs Nocun 60%
Nocun
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Staniczek -5 · Nocun +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Nocun) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nocun form (60%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStaniczek 2.85 / Nocun 1.34
Signal prob.28% / 72%
Edge (Nocun)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13104703
Staniczek2.85
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog26% won 115 of 445
Down 0–1, comes back11% 31 of 282
Down 0–2, comes back3% 6 of 210
Nocun1.34
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite67% won 320 of 481
Up 2–0, closes it95% 155 of 164
Up 1–0, closes it87% 230 of 266
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStaniczek3wins
AwayNocun7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderNocun leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStaniczek60%3 of 5
AwayNocun100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Staniczek5Nocun5n = 10split evenly
S2Staniczek2Nocun8n = 10Nocun took 8 of 10
S3Staniczek5Nocun5n = 10split evenly
S4Staniczek1Nocun5n = 6Nocun took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricStaniczekNocunS − NBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match32.437.0−4.6per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStaniczekNocunBasisWin rate · lifetime363 / 1008 vs 655 / 109536%59.8%363 / 1008 vs 655 / 1095Avg sets wonper match1.62.2per matchAvg pointsper match33.738.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NocunStaniczek 2.85/Nocun 1.34
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
72.4%
Nocun · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Nocun won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 9 · 18:20A. Staniczek—671171Z. Nocun—11112113
LSep 4 · 01:30A. Staniczek—12990Z. Nocun—1411113
LSep 3 · 19:30A. Staniczek—1287161Z. Nocun—101111183
LSep 3 · 05:05A. Staniczek—7860Z. Nocun—1111113
WSep 2 · 20:45A. Staniczek—1111113Z. Nocun—3750
LAug 20 · 23:20A. Staniczek—1240Z. Nocun—1111113
WAug 20 · 17:20A. Staniczek—131183113Z. Nocun—119111162
LAug 12 · 22:10A. Staniczek—771161Z. Nocun—11119113
WAug 12 · 19:40A. Staniczek—11711113Z. Nocun—811371
LAug 5 · 21:45A. Staniczek—12511772Z. Nocun—1011611113
A. Staniczek10
LSep 10 · 03:20A. Staniczek3.608640M. Warzecha1.221111113LSep 10 · 24:45A. Staniczek1.7181511171W. Stechly2.0211178193LSep 9 · 23:30A. Staniczek2.423930J. Skorupa1.461111113LSep 9 · 22:20J. Slawomir1.581211113A. Staniczek2.2510850LSep 9 · 21:30M. Warzecha1.2391117113A. Staniczek3.451191581LSep 9 · 20:45A. Staniczek2.5011138672K. Gudzik1.478111111113WSep 9 · 19:10A. Staniczek2.4261111173J. Skorupa1.461137151LSep 9 · 18:20Z. Nocun1.3711112113A. Staniczek2.70671171LSep 8 · 02:45J. Michalik1.501111113A. Staniczek2.302670LSep 8 · 01:35A. Staniczek2.01991471A. Krezel1.66111112113
Z. Nocun10
LSep 10 · 03:00W. Stechly5.0581111113Z. Nocun1.11117591WSep 10 · 01:30Z. Nocun1.85911911113K. Gudzik1.8011311792WSep 10 · 24:20Z. Nocun2.15116811113M. Warzecha1.6191111682WSep 9 · 22:40Z. Nocun1.66111110113J. Skorupa2.05891281LSep 9 · 21:05J. Slawomir1.90518711113Z. Nocun1.80111611632LSep 9 · 20:20M. Warzecha1.5611115113Z. Nocun2.18631171WSep 9 · 19:30Z. Nocun1.75311127133K. Gudzik1.901181011112WSep 9 · 18:20Z. Nocun1.3711112113A. Staniczek2.70671171LSep 7 · 02:10Z. Nocun1.5011115962G. Mucha2.50581111113LSep 7 · 24:35M. Lewczuk2.00511113113Z. Nocun1.7311671192
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