TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13104127
Played Sep 9Finished
Adam Staniczek
Home
2.42
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
311911311––––
Jakub Skorupa
Away
1.46
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:13 and never touched — 59.0% is still 59.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Skorupa to win
59.0%
59.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
48 points played in total.
Set by set
311911311––––
H2H Adam Staniczek 9–22 Jakub Skorupa Adam Staniczek has won 9 of their 31 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Staniczek beat Skorupa 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:13What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.46 (62%)
Skorupa
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-22 in 31
Skorupa
Correct
gap of 13 in 31, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Staniczek 1242 vs Skorupa 1323
Skorupa
Correct
both rated, 81 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Staniczek 20% vs Skorupa 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Staniczek 30% vs Skorupa 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Staniczek -3 · Skorupa -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Skorupa) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skorupa form (20%) is below what odds imply (68%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStaniczek 2.42 / Skorupa 1.46
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Skorupa)+2.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13104127
Staniczek2.42
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog26% won 115 of 445
Down 0–1, comes back11% 31 of 282
Down 0–2, comes back3% 6 of 210
Skorupa1.46
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite66% won 150 of 226
Up 2–0, closes it93% 69 of 74
Up 1–0, closes it76% 97 of 128
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStaniczek4wins
AwaySkorupa6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSkorupa leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStaniczek33.3%1 of 3
AwaySkorupa57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Staniczek3Skorupa7n = 10Skorupa took 7 of 10
S2Staniczek5Skorupa5n = 10split evenly
S3Staniczek2Skorupa8n = 10Skorupa took 8 of 10
S4Staniczek3Skorupa4n = 7Skorupa took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricStaniczekSkorupaStaniczek − SkorupaBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match34.039.8−5.8per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStaniczekSkorupaBasisWin rate · lifetime365 / 1008 vs 301 / 62936.2%47.9%365 / 1008 vs 301 / 629Avg sets wonper match1.62.0per matchAvg pointsper match33.837.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkorupaStaniczek 2.42/Skorupa 1.46
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.4%
Skorupa · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Skorupa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 9 · 19:10A. Staniczek—61111173J. Skorupa—1137151
LSep 4 · 03:55A. Staniczek—154981J. Skorupa—131111113
LSep 3 · 21:55A. Staniczek—81100J. Skorupa—1111123
LSep 3 · 03:55A. Staniczek—114791J. Skorupa—81111113
LSep 2 · 21:55A. Staniczek—311691J. Skorupa—11811113
LAug 24 · 23:10A. Staniczek—5770J. Skorupa—1111113
LAug 21 · 24:35A. Staniczek—9620J. Skorupa—1111113
WAug 20 · 18:30A. Staniczek—711611123J. Skorupa—117116102
WAug 18 · 02:45A. Staniczek—12119123J. Skorupa—10811101
WAug 6 · 02:10A. Staniczek—9111110123J. Skorupa—118912102
A. Staniczek10
LSep 9 · 22:20J. Slawomir1.581211113A. Staniczek2.2510850LSep 9 · 21:30M. Warzecha1.2391117113A. Staniczek3.451191581LSep 9 · 20:45A. Staniczek2.5011138672K. Gudzik1.478111111113WSep 9 · 19:10A. Staniczek2.4261111173J. Skorupa1.461137151LSep 9 · 18:20Z. Nocun1.3711112113A. Staniczek2.70671171LSep 8 · 02:45J. Michalik1.501111113A. Staniczek2.302670LSep 8 · 01:35A. Staniczek2.01991471A. Krezel1.66111112113LSep 8 · 24:25M. Warzecha1.191112113A. Staniczek3.9031050WSep 7 · 23:10M. Machelski1.9516150A. Staniczek1.751811113WSep 7 · 21:35M. Karpiuk1.60513581A. Staniczek2.10111111113
J. Skorupa10
LSep 9 · 22:40Z. Nocun1.66111110113J. Skorupa2.05891281LSep 9 · 21:55K. Gudzik1.85136119113J. Skorupa1.85111161142LSep 9 · 19:55J. Slawomir1.811512113J. Skorupa1.83131040LSep 9 · 19:10A. Staniczek2.4261111173J. Skorupa1.461137151WSep 9 · 17:30M. Warzecha1.709101112102J. Skorupa2.001112810123WSep 8 · 01:30M. Krutak1.836850J. Skorupa1.831111113LSep 8 · 24:50H. Tkaczyk1.44139118143J. Skorupa2.631111811122LSep 7 · 23:10M. Lewczuk1.534101411113J. Skorupa2.38111212772WSep 7 · 22:30A. Kubiak1.73101250J. Skorupa2.001214113LSep 7 · 21:00J. Zelezik1.61711811113J. Skorupa2.2011711952
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