TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13108074
Played Sep 10Finished
Zbigniew Nocun
Home
1.40
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119116118––––
Adam Staniczek
Away
2.75
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:05 and never touched — 70.7% is still 70.7%
Graded at full timeZbigniew Nocun to win
70.7%
70.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingZbigniew Nocun above · Adam Staniczek below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 56 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Zbigniew Nocun at 70.7%
56 points played in total.
H2H Zbigniew Nocun 39–9 Adam Staniczek Adam Staniczek has won 9 of their 48 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:05What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Nocun
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
39-9 in 48
Nocun
Correct
gap of 30 in 48, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nocun 1400 vs Staniczek 1216
Nocun
Correct
both rated, 184 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nocun 40% vs Staniczek 20%
Nocun
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nocun 50% vs Staniczek 20%
Nocun
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Nocun -3 · Staniczek -1
Nocun
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Nocun)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Staniczek form (20%) is below what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNocun 1.40 / Staniczek 2.75
Signal prob.71% / 29%
Edge (Nocun)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13108074
Nocun1.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite67% won 323 of 486
Up 2–0, closes it95% 157 of 166
Up 1–0, closes it86% 232 of 270
Staniczek2.75
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog26% won 116 of 453
Down 0–1, comes back11% 32 of 288
Down 0–2, comes back3% 6 of 215
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNocun7wins
AwayStaniczek3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderNocun leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNocun100%5 of 5
AwayStaniczek60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nocun5Staniczek5n = 10split evenly
S2Nocun8Staniczek2n = 10Nocun took 8 of 10
S3Nocun5Staniczek5n = 10split evenly
S4Nocun5Staniczek1n = 6Nocun took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricNocunStaniczekN − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.032.4+4.6per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNocunStaniczekBasisWin rate · lifetime656 / 1098 vs 363 / 101059.7%35.9%656 / 1098 vs 363 / 1010Avg sets wonper match2.21.6per matchAvg pointsper match38.533.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NocunNocun 1.40/Staniczek 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.7%
Nocun · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Nocun won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 9 · 18:20Z. Nocun—11112113A. Staniczek—671171
WSep 4 · 01:30Z. Nocun—1411113A. Staniczek—12990
WSep 3 · 19:30Z. Nocun—101111183A. Staniczek—1287161
WSep 3 · 05:05Z. Nocun—1111113A. Staniczek—7860
LSep 2 · 20:45Z. Nocun—3750A. Staniczek—1111113
WAug 20 · 23:20Z. Nocun—1111113A. Staniczek—1240
LAug 20 · 17:20Z. Nocun—119111162A. Staniczek—131183113
WAug 12 · 22:10Z. Nocun—11119113A. Staniczek—771161
LAug 12 · 19:40Z. Nocun—811371A. Staniczek—11711113
WAug 5 · 21:45Z. Nocun—1011611113A. Staniczek—12511772
Z. Nocun10
LSep 10 · 17:45K. Gudzik1.9111711113Z. Nocun1.80611571LSep 10 · 15:50Z. Nocun1.6781111862M. Baran2.10117811113LSep 10 · 04:20Z. Nocun1.6410870J. Skorupa2.041211113LSep 10 · 03:00W. Stechly5.0581111113Z. Nocun1.11117591WSep 10 · 02:20A. Staniczek2.85881112102Z. Nocun1.341111310123WSep 10 · 01:30Z. Nocun1.85911911113K. Gudzik1.8011311792WSep 10 · 24:20Z. Nocun2.15116811113M. Warzecha1.6191111682WSep 9 · 22:40Z. Nocun1.66111110113J. Skorupa2.05891281LSep 9 · 21:05J. Slawomir1.90518711113Z. Nocun1.80111611632LSep 9 · 20:20M. Warzecha1.5611115113Z. Nocun2.18631171
A. Staniczek10
LSep 10 · 15:25J. Cyndera1.531111133A. Staniczek2.3855110WSep 10 · 04:40A. Staniczek2.4611112113K. Gudzik1.44751171LSep 10 · 03:20A. Staniczek3.608640M. Warzecha1.221111113LSep 10 · 02:20A. Staniczek2.85881112102Z. Nocun1.341111310123LSep 10 · 24:45A. Staniczek1.7181511171W. Stechly2.0211178193LSep 9 · 23:30A. Staniczek2.423930J. Skorupa1.461111113LSep 9 · 22:20J. Slawomir1.581211113A. Staniczek2.2510850LSep 9 · 21:30M. Warzecha1.2391117113A. Staniczek3.451191581LSep 9 · 20:45A. Staniczek2.5011138672K. Gudzik1.478111111113WSep 9 · 19:10A. Staniczek2.4261111173J. Skorupa1.461137151
Upcoming Matches
Z. Nocun
A. Staniczek
Sep 10 · 19:20A. Staniczek3.50M. Lewczuk1.28—Sep 10 · 20:30A. Staniczek2.50K. Gudzik1.50—Sep 10 · 21:20A. Staniczek3.00J. Cyndera1.36—Sep 10 · 22:55A. Staniczek2.75Z. Nocun1.40—Sep 11 · 24:10A. Staniczek2.63K. Gudzik1.44—Sep 11 · 01:25A. Staniczek3.50M. Lewczuk1.28—Sep 11 · 02:35A. Staniczek2.50M. Baran1.50—
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