TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13104858
Played Sep 10Finished
Mateusz Baran
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
8119111151412911
Miroslaw Lewczuk
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:10 and never touched — 58.2% is still 58.2%
Graded at full timeMateusz Baran to win
58.2%
58.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMateusz Baran above · Miroslaw Lewczuk below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 14-12
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 101 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Mateusz Baran at 58.2%
101 points played in total.
H2H Mateusz Baran 2–0 Miroslaw Lewczuk Miroslaw Lewczuk has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:10What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Baran
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Baran 1404 vs Lewczuk 1468
Lewczuk
Correct
both rated, 64 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Baran 40% vs Lewczuk 80%
Lewczuk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Baran 60% vs Lewczuk 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Baran +2 · Lewczuk +3
Lewczuk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Lewczuk) · live re-read · sealed at 42% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lewczuk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBaran 1.80 / Lewczuk 1.91
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Lewczuk)+5.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13104858
Baran1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite67% won 39 of 58
Up 2–0, closes it100% 10 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it77% 23 of 30
Lewczuk1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog34% won 64 of 191
Down 0–1, comes back18% 21 of 119
Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 75
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeBaran2wins
AwayLewczuk0wins
1 of 2 to a deciderBaran leads 2–0, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricBaranLewczukB − LBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match46.038.5+7.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBaranLewczukBasisWin rate · lifetime63 / 112 vs 491 / 95756.3%51.3%63 / 112 vs 491 / 957Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.236.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LewczukBaran 1.80/Lewczuk 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Lewczuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Lewczuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WSep 9 · 21:45M. Baran—11811133M. Lewczuk—1119111
WSep 9 · 17:45M. Baran—911711113M. Lewczuk—11811962
M. Baran10
WSep 10 · 15:50Z. Nocun1.6781111862M. Baran2.10117811113WSep 10 · 02:10M. Baran2.171312123A. Zmijewski1.571110100LSep 10 · 24:35K. Delikatny2.201111113M. Baran1.618730LSep 9 · 23:45A. Barton3.25101111163M. Baran1.331287141LSep 9 · 22:55M. Baran2.109101141A. Fomin1.6711126113WSep 9 · 21:45M. Baran1.8611811133M. Lewczuk1.801119111LSep 9 · 20:05M. Baran2.205711121A. Zmijewski1.6111115143WSep 9 · 18:30K. Delikatny2.001110151M. Baran1.7381211113WSep 9 · 17:45M. Lewczuk1.7311811962M. Baran2.00911711113WSep 9 · 16:55M. Baran2.00114118123A. Fomin1.73711611102
M. Lewczuk10
LSep 10 · 17:20J. Cyndera1.7311612113M. Lewczuk2.006111041WSep 10 · 15:00K. Gudzik2.638770M. Lewczuk1.441111113WSep 10 · 01:45K. Delikatny1.9111118572M. Lewczuk1.80961111113WSep 10 · 01:00A. Barton7.509420M. Lewczuk1.071111113LSep 10 · 24:10M. Lewczuk2.003590A. Fomin1.731111113WSep 9 · 22:35M. Lewczuk2.10113711113A. Zmijewski1.6781111392LSep 9 · 21:45M. Baran1.8611811133M. Lewczuk1.801119111LSep 9 · 20:30M. Lewczuk2.0011810121A. Fomin1.7391112143WSep 9 · 18:55M. Lewczuk1.251411113A. Skupinski3.7512990LSep 9 · 17:45M. Lewczuk1.7311811962M. Baran2.00911711113
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